@FreightAlley I’ve been hearing the same thing and couldn’t believe it
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S&P 500 Signals
5.7K posts
S&P 500 Signals
@SPYSTSignals
I build and share quantitative models that *attempt* to predict future S&P 500 returns. All models are wrong, but some are useful.
Seattle, WA Присоединился Haziran 2022
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I haven't seen freight charts this bullish since COVID.
Excited that Bloomberg is seeing the same signals in company transcripts and fundamental manufacturing and economic data
Bloomberg Chief U.S. Economist 👇
Anna Wong@AnnaEconomist
We also have been flagging this. The diffusion index signals are corroborated by a very strong signal from the latest earning transcripts. Tariffs probably played a role (shhh…), as well as defense and data centers. Other places showing manufacturing recovery…manufacturing productivity, output production, and even payrolls have bottomed.
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Seems like these talks are going well…
Middle East Observer@ME_Observer_
⚡️🚨Iran responds on the Negotiations allegations: "You have reached a stage where you are negotiating with yourselves" 🚨The spokesperson of the Central Khatem-al-Anbia Headquarters addressed the US, saying: Do not call your defeat an agreement 🔹There will be no news of your investments in the region, and you will not see the former price of energy and oil. 📍 Iran | 📅 24/03/2026
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عـــاجل 🚨:
شروط وقف إطلاق النار الإيرانية، وهي جادةٌ للغاية:
— تسليم نتنياهو للمحكمة الجنائية الدولية
— الانسحاب إلى حدود 7 أكتوبر
— إلغاء خطة ترامب لغزة
— رفع جميع العقوبات، وإعادة الأموال المجمدة
— الاعتراف بالحقوق النووية الإيرانية
— الانسحاب من لبنان وسوريا واليمن
— إخلاء جميع القواعد الأمريكية من الأراضي العربية
— يجب على ترامب تقديم اعتذار علني لخامنئي
— تعويض إيران عن كل عقوبة فُرضت عليها
ثم ختموا كلامهم بالقول: "هذا ليس بالأمر العظيم عند الله".
هذه ليست قائمة لوقف إطلاق النار، بل وثيقة استسلام مُقدمة لأقوى جيش في العالم.
والأمر المثير للدهشة؟ بعد تعطيل الرادار الأمريكي، وتسليح مضيق هرمز، ورفض جميع دعوات وقف إطلاق النار، قد يكون لديهم بالفعل النفوذ الكافي للوفاء بوعدهم.
العربية
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🛢️ De-escalation hopes calm markets
Our Chief Strategist @Geo_papic told @Bloomberg:
⚠️ No resolution in 7–10 days risks a pandemic-style global shutdown
📉 Trump’s announcement signals concern that the real economy could fall off a cliff
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Israeli Channel 12: A ceasefire for a period of one month will be announced according to a mechanism that Witkoff and Kushner are working on
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We are aware of what is happening in the paper oil market, including the firms hired to influence oil futures. We also see the broader jawboning campaign.
But let’s see if they can turn that into "actual fuel" at the pump —or maybe even print gas molecules!
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@Alpha_Ex_LLC Interesting point, I assume it’s driven by EU’s larger reliance on ME oil supplies
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An interesting comparison is realized correlation among stocks in the SPX vs the same in the Eurostoxx50 where stocks have started to move in tandem considerably more. The premium of realized correl there vs the SPX is in the 97th %ile over the past 5 years. Chart below.
To me, the lack of significant increase in realized correl among stocks in the SPX is a risk that has not yet, but easily could, materialize for US investors. Let's keep an eye on that. A rule of thumb tells us that 5 correlation points translates to a vol point.
The Eurostoxx has realized 25 vol over the last month. The SPX just 14. There's a 35 point gap in 1m realized correlation between the 2 indices. Using our rule of thumb, that translates correlation to volatility, that 35 point gap accounts for 7 of the 11 vols of realized vol premium of Eurostoxx over SPX.
Said another way, if the SPX realized the same level of single stock vol that it has, but had a Eurostoxx level of realized correl, it would have realized in the neighborhood of 21.
If we then assumed the market embedded the same hefty vol risk premium (around a 12 spread of implied over realized) that it currently has in SPX options, you'd have a VIX well north of 30. So keep a close eye on the degree of co-movement in stocks.
Of course, it's in the hands of the gent with the largest following on Truth Social. Good news, that app is free and accessible on your Iphone.
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S&P 500 Signals ретвитнул
QATARENERGY - DECLARES FORCE MAJEURE ON LNG CONTRACTS WITH ITALY, BELGIUM, SOUTH KOREA, CHINA
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S&P 500 Signals ретвитнул
📌 Equity
Consolidated equity positioning sits in the 30th percentile, still firmly underweight, leaving room for upside if sentiment improves. For now, that shift has yet to materialize
👉 isabelnet.com/?s=equity
h/t @DeutscheBank $spx #spx #sp500 #equity #stocks
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Bad timing to have a refinery go down…
Breaking911@Breaking911
🚨 BREAKING: Smoke is seen billowing from Valero refinery in Port Arthur, Texas following reports of an explosion.
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JUST IN 🔴
IRGC linked Fars News: U.S. and Israeli strikes targeted energy facilities in Isfahan and Khorramshahr.
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This is notable news from Bloomberg given Apollo's standing in private credit:
"Apollo Global Management Inc. is curbing redemptions from one of its largest non-traded private credit funds for retail investors, becoming the latest alternative asset manager to grapple with a surge in such requests.
The $25 billion business development company, Apollo Debt Solutions, capped withdrawals at 5% of outstanding shares Monday after clients sought to redeem 11.2%."
#economy #markets #privatecredit
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BREAKING: Massive blasts heard across Tehran
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@FreightAlley As someone in my 40s, I thought the same. Cancer is a b*tch.
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"He had $3 billion and still couldn't beat cancer at 43.. what exactly are we all racing toward."
Tuki@TukiFromKL
🚨 Do you understand what just happened.. the owner of OnlyFans just died at 43.. Leonid Radvinsky.. the man made $3 billion off a platform where other people sell themselves.. he took 20% of every transaction.. every video.. every message.. every tip.. while creators fought algorithms and chargebacks and deplatforming threats just to make rent.. he sat at the top collecting a cut of their bodies.. and everyone called him a "tech founder".. the man wasn't a tech founder.. he was the most successful middleman in history.. and the wildest part.. OnlyFans was profitable from day one.. no VC money.. no IPO.. because when your business model is taking a fifth of what someone earns from their own skin.. you don't need investors.. you need creators desperate enough to not ask questions.. he had $3 billion and still couldn't beat cancer at 43.. what exactly are we all racing toward.
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🚨BREAKING
Iranian media has released an animation titled "Lord of the Straits," themed around the Strait of Hormuz.
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IRAN'S REVOLUTIONARY GUARDS SAY THEY LAUNCHED A NEW ATTACK ON TARGETS IN ISRAEL, US BASE IN THE REGION
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