@WrigleyCapital With $135MM in grants on the line to be priced on March 5th, you bet that the ~8% after hours decline could be a nice little cherry on top for @aneelb
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UnlearningCFA
172 posts
UnlearningCFA
@UnlearningCFA
Self-taught corporate governance analyst
Canada Присоединился Ekim 2018
59 Подписки946 Подписчики
They had every reason to kitchen sink this per @UnlearningCFA
Conor Sen@conorsen
oh boy *WORKDAY SEES 2027 SUBSCRIPTION REV. $9.93B TO $9.95B, EST. $10B
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Well, the board really screwed these execs by hurrying their grants. Looks to be down ~9% this morning.
Weird play.
UnlearningCFA@UnlearningCFA
Centene $CNC earnings are on Feb 6th. The company awarded yearly RSU/PSU grants on Jan 26, instead of the typical mid-March cadence. This smells like a spring-load.
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Disclosure: I did not create the spring-load image, @NonGaap did.
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Centene $CNC earnings are on Feb 6th. The company awarded yearly RSU/PSU grants on Jan 26, instead of the typical mid-March cadence.
This smells like a spring-load.
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@Comp_Cap_TO @lorenz_swen @NewmoonCap @MikeFritzell @StockJabber @uv_shares Haha that would be an unreal tool! I’ve tried to use AI to generate ideas based on compensation changes but it usually doesn’t narrow it down for me enough.
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@lorenz_swen @NewmoonCap @MikeFritzell @StockJabber @uv_shares Sounds like something @UnlearningCFA will have a field day with.
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This interview with @StockJabber has "several ideas in it that a hedge fund could base its entire strategy on". So says one of my readers at @uv_shares.
undervalued-shares.com/weekly-dispatc…
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Wish I could earn ~$70MM if my stock price only outperformed 25% of the companies in the S&P 500.
Nice work if you can get it. $CRWD
sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archiv…
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@McBullish I think the “risk” that you are outlining is that the stock may not be cheap enough yet for them to want a large option grant.
Maybe the current decline in the stock is an accurate assessment of the decrease in company value due to the loss of market share.
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@UnlearningCFA Mm maybe, I’m just not so sure they are willing to take that risk at this stage tbh. In a crisis most people have already left the market - here people are still invested, so it would call another type of fuzz. Not saying you’re wrong, you might still be right.
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Wondering when to catch the Copart $CPRT falling knife? Just wait for the gigantic option grant.
April 2009 (financial crisis) - 2MM options for the CEO. 2MM for the President.
June 2020 (Covid-19) - 1MM options for the CEO.
The stock is down ~40% from the highs, but no grant.
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@McBullish I think that’s fair-ish.
The options were given because the stock was cheap as a result of the crises. This time around, the stock is “cheap” but driven by company issues.
If they truly thought it was cheap now, the executives would be trembling with greed (option grant)
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That’s a good catch, however those two previous ones are connected to actual market crisis and that’s not really the same thing we have on our hands right now. There has been other times when the stocks been down where nothing has been done. So not really sure this thesis is valid
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@henrythatsme Agree 100%. The family control essentially dictates that this will go on for the foreseeable future.
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@UnlearningCFA Very valid points but I've learned that unless a company shows it understands proper capital allocation the assumption must be that they do not understand or care about capital allocation
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🧵 Pollard Banknote $PBL.TO owns 50% of NeoPollard Interactive (NPI), a JV growing 20%+ YoY with 50% EBIT margins. Just taking into account NeoPollard (NPI) earnings, $PBL.TO trades at ~15x EV/NOPAT. A very reasonable price for great growth and margins.
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Wrote it up at $6.72. Acquired today for $12.00.
Took a little longer than expected, but the governance signals were there!
ir.gulfisland.com/news-events/pr…
UnlearningCFA@UnlearningCFA
With some recent amendments to the change of control agreements, I think this company is setting the stage to run a sale process.
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$VZ stock essentially unchanged since the writeup. No spring-load on earnings, but at least the downside was capped.
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I’d argue that Verizon $VZ is possibly setting the stage for an earnings spring-load on October 29th.
Link in bio.
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@DBclouds99 Yeah, definitely not good news. This is a battleground stock, and I guess we’ll see when earnings come out.
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@researchne89461 Hahaha I was trying for “exciting” rather than “cryptic”, but that’s okay.
Gotta wait that vesting period to receive it!
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@UnlearningCFA I'd argue that the cryptic ending was almost as interesting ! Also, still waiting for my big RSU's !!
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Some have pointed out the $FPH price-based grant, but none have done an in depth analysis on it. Thanks to @thewritser for the help!
@marginofdanger @RagingVentures
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Why is it on the cheaper side: super low trading volume (~$300K per day), $PBL.TO recently lost the lucrative Michigan iLottery contract, $PBL.TO is ~70% controlled by the Pollard family, management may be wasting FCF on legacy lottery acquisitions.
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$PBL.TO has legacy lottery ticket operations that are profitable; however, they don't really move the needle. It has ~$525MM of revenue with a normalized profit margin of 2-3%. If you capitalize those earnings at 8-10x, it doesn't add much to the total enterprise value.
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