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Prem Soni
3.8K posts
Prem Soni
@ValueWithPrem
Helping Indians build & protect generational wealth Advising Young Founders | Capital Strategy | Asset Protection | Jeweller | NISM certified Research Analyst
Присоединился Nisan 2020
1.6K Подписки29.5K Подписчики
Prem Soni@ValueWithPrem
You are walking straight into the biggest wealth trap of the decade because you don't understand how the casino actually works. If the House is offering you a bet, you have already lost. The Architect’s Scam. Imagine a group of elite Architects who build a massive, glittering skyscraper in the center of town. They finance the entire project by convincing thousands of investors to buy suites inside, promising them incredible, steady rental yields. For years, the building is the hottest investment in town. Then, the Architects secretly look at the foundation. They realize the concrete is cracking. The pipes are bursting. The structural integrity is failing fast. The investors inside the building start to smell the smoke. They panic and rush to the lobby to sell their suites and get their money back. But the Architects do something terrifying. They lock the lobby doors. They announce over the intercom: "To protect the value of the building, no one is allowed to sell or leave." Then, the Architects walk across the street, set up a folding table, and wave down a group of wealthy onlookers. The Architects say: "Hey, we have a special, exclusive offer for you. We built a betting pool. For a fee, you can place a bet that the skyscraper across the street is going to collapse." The onlookers think they've just been handed the cheat code to infinite wealth. "The Architects themselves are telling us it's going to fall! This is free money!" But they don't understand the golden rule of the casino. If the house is "offering" you a way to make money, they are not being generous. They are making you the exit liquidity. What the onlookers don't know is that the Architects still have millions of their own dollars tied up in the top floors of that failing building. By selling the "short" bets to the onlookers, the Architects are secretly using those premiums to hedge their own massive losses. When the building finally collapses, the Architects will walk away clean, paid for by the exact people who thought they were outsmarting the system. This is happening right now. The Skyscraper is the $1.8 Trillion Private Credit Market. The Locked Doors are the Gated Redemptions. The Architects are JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs. For the last decade, Wall Street built a massive, unregulated shadow-banking boom called Private Credit. They promised investors high, steady yields. But today, the foundation is cracking. Private credit defaults just hit a record 9.2%. The loans given to overvalued software companies are rotting from the inside out. Investors are panicking and trying to pull their money out. But the major funds Blackstone, BlackRock, Morgan Stanley are locking the lobby doors. They are "gating redemptions," trapping the capital inside. So, what are JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs doing? They are walking across the street. They are suddenly offering hedge funds "Short Baskets" custom built tools to bet against the exact private credit market they helped create. Why? Because US Banks have $300 billion of their own exposure to these private credit providers. They are trapped on the top floor. When a major bank comes to you with a shiny new product to short a market, it's not because they want you to get rich. It's because they need a counterparty. They need someone to hold the bag while they quietly deleverage and slip out the back door. The banks that built the bomb are now selling the blast shields. And if you're buying them, you're paying for their escape. RT if you agree that the game is rigged. Follow @ValueWithPrem as we decode the moves of the ultra wealthy. Have you ever bought a financial product only to realize later you were the exit liquidity?
English
@InvestorOfJAMMU Gold will save👇🏻
Prem Soni@ValueWithPrem
The Middle class thinks Gold is a Fire Extinguisher. The Rich know Gold is now a Vault. The Fire Extinguisher Illusion. For decades, the financial world operated on a very simple rule: Gold is your emergency insurance. If a fire breaks out in the town a war, a market crash, a sudden panic everyone rushes to the hardware store to buy a fire extinguisher. Demand skyrockets, and the price of fire extinguishers (Gold) goes to the moon. This was the old system. The logic was flawless. But a few years ago, the rules of the town completely changed. The Town Mayor (the US Government) got into a bitter dispute with a wealthy merchant (Russia) and permanently froze his bank accounts. The other wealthy merchants in town the massive oil barons (the Middle East) and the giant factory owners (China) watched this happen in absolute horror. They realized that keeping their billions in surplus profits inside the Mayor's Bank (US Treasuries) was a massive risk. With one phone call, their wealth could be deleted. They needed a new place to park their massive profits. An asset the Mayor couldn't freeze. So, they turned to Gold. But they weren't buying Gold to put out fires. They were buying Gold to build massive, heavy, un cancellable Vaults. Gold transitioned from being an emergency tool for the panicked masses, into the ultimate, neutral savings account for the world's richest merchants. As long as the merchants were exporting goods and making record profits, they took all their extra cash and bought more Gold to build bigger Vaults. The price of Gold steadily climbed. Then, a massive fire breaks out. A blockade shuts down the town's main river (the Strait of Hormuz). Trade stops. Energy prices spike. Panic sets in. The middle class sees the fire and immediately thinks: "Emergency! Time to buy fire extinguishers! Gold is going to skyrocket!" But they are watching the wrong variable. What is happening to the wealthy merchants? The river is blocked. Their oil ships are stuck. Their factory supply chains are crippled. Suddenly, they aren't making record profits anymore. Their cash flow has collapsed. Because they have no extra cash coming in, they immediately stop building new Gold Vaults. Even worse, to keep their businesses afloat and pay their bills during the massive fire, some of these merchants actually have to break off pieces of their existing Gold Vaults and sell them for cash. The price of Gold drops or stalls right in the middle of a massive, terrifying fire. The middle class is left completely confused, holding their paper tickets, wondering why their "safe haven" isn't working. They don't realize the fundamental shift: Gold no longer reacts to the fear of the fire. It reacts to the cash flow of the merchants. When global trade is booming and the merchants are rich, Gold goes up. When trade is blocked and the merchants are squeezed, Gold goes down even if the blockade is terrifying. Conclusion • The Fire Extinguisher (Old Model): Gold driven by panic, volatility, and safe-haven demand. • The Vault (New Model): Gold driven by Central Bank reserve accumulation and trade surpluses (export revenues). • The Blockade (The Reality Check): A geopolitical shock that should cause panic-buying instead causes a collapse in the exact export revenues that have been holding the gold market up. It perfectly flips the old script and explains why a "bullish" geopolitical event is suddenly causing a bearish reaction in the metals market. RT If this changed how you view the markets, to help others break free from the old rulebook. Follow me @ValueWithPrem for more breakdowns on macro shifts and wealth creation. Does this change your thesis on holding physical gold? Why or why not?
English
If Gold is crashing when world is going through panic, then who will save it when World goes into Peace??
English
You are walking straight into the biggest wealth trap of the decade because you don't understand how the casino actually works.
If the House is offering you a bet, you have already lost.
The Architect’s Scam.
Imagine a group of elite Architects who build a massive, glittering skyscraper in the center of town.
They finance the entire project by convincing thousands of investors to buy suites inside, promising them incredible, steady rental yields. For years, the building is the hottest investment in town.
Then, the Architects secretly look at the foundation.
They realize the concrete is cracking. The pipes are bursting. The structural integrity is failing fast.
The investors inside the building start to smell the smoke. They panic and rush to the lobby to sell their suites and get their money back.
But the Architects do something terrifying. They lock the lobby doors.
They announce over the intercom: "To protect the value of the building, no one is allowed to sell or leave."
Then, the Architects walk across the street, set up a folding table, and wave down a group of wealthy onlookers.
The Architects say: "Hey, we have a special, exclusive offer for you. We built a betting pool. For a fee, you can place a bet that the skyscraper across the street is going to collapse."
The onlookers think they've just been handed the cheat code to infinite wealth.
"The Architects themselves are telling us it's going to fall! This is free money!"
But they don't understand the golden rule of the casino.
If the house is "offering" you a way to make money, they are not being generous. They are making you the exit liquidity.
What the onlookers don't know is that the Architects still have millions of their own dollars tied up in the top floors of that failing building. By selling the "short" bets to the onlookers, the Architects are secretly using those premiums to hedge their own massive losses.
When the building finally collapses, the Architects will walk away clean, paid for by the exact people who thought they were outsmarting the system.
This is happening right now.
The Skyscraper is the $1.8 Trillion Private Credit Market.
The Locked Doors are the Gated Redemptions.
The Architects are JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs.
For the last decade, Wall Street built a massive, unregulated shadow-banking boom called Private Credit. They promised investors high, steady yields.
But today, the foundation is cracking.
Private credit defaults just hit a record 9.2%.
The loans given to overvalued software companies are rotting from the inside out.
Investors are panicking and trying to pull their money out.
But the major funds Blackstone, BlackRock, Morgan Stanley are locking the lobby doors. They are "gating redemptions," trapping the capital inside.
So, what are JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs doing?
They are walking across the street.
They are suddenly offering hedge funds "Short Baskets" custom built tools to bet against the exact private credit market they helped create.
Why? Because US Banks have $300 billion of their own exposure to these private credit providers. They are trapped on the top floor.
When a major bank comes to you with a shiny new product to short a market, it's not because they want you to get rich. It's because they need a counterparty. They need someone to hold the bag while they quietly deleverage and slip out the back door.
The banks that built the bomb are now selling the blast shields.
And if you're buying them, you're paying for their escape.
RT if you agree that the game is rigged.
Follow @ValueWithPrem as we decode the moves of the ultra wealthy.
Have you ever bought a financial product only to realize later you were the exit liquidity?
TFTC@TFTC21
JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are now offering hedge funds ways to short the $1.8 trillion private credit market. They've assembled baskets of companies with exposure, alt managers, BDCs, and lenders tied to private credit. This isn't speculation. These are structured products designed to bet against an entire sector. Private credit defaults hit a record 9.2% in late 2025. Blackstone's $82 billion flagship credit fund saw $6.5 billion in redemption requests in Q1. BlackRock had to cap withdrawals after requests hit 9.3% of its HPS fund. Morgan Stanley and Cliffwater are also gating redemptions. JPMorgan already started marking down software-related loans in private credit portfolios. When the banks that lend to these funds start cutting the value of the collateral, it forces deleveraging at the worst possible time. US banks have lent nearly $300 billion to private credit providers. The exposure is not contained. Goldman's own data shows hedge funds are "aggressively shorting" financial stocks, the most-sold sector of the year. Financials are down 11% on the S&P. The same banks that helped build the private credit boom are now building the tools to bet against it. If that sounds familiar, it should.
English
@_prashantnair Only few understand this👇🏻 @_prashantnair
Prem Soni@ValueWithPrem
You are walking straight into the biggest wealth trap of the decade because you don't understand how the casino actually works. If the House is offering you a bet, you have already lost. The Architect’s Scam. Imagine a group of elite Architects who build a massive, glittering skyscraper in the center of town. They finance the entire project by convincing thousands of investors to buy suites inside, promising them incredible, steady rental yields. For years, the building is the hottest investment in town. Then, the Architects secretly look at the foundation. They realize the concrete is cracking. The pipes are bursting. The structural integrity is failing fast. The investors inside the building start to smell the smoke. They panic and rush to the lobby to sell their suites and get their money back. But the Architects do something terrifying. They lock the lobby doors. They announce over the intercom: "To protect the value of the building, no one is allowed to sell or leave." Then, the Architects walk across the street, set up a folding table, and wave down a group of wealthy onlookers. The Architects say: "Hey, we have a special, exclusive offer for you. We built a betting pool. For a fee, you can place a bet that the skyscraper across the street is going to collapse." The onlookers think they've just been handed the cheat code to infinite wealth. "The Architects themselves are telling us it's going to fall! This is free money!" But they don't understand the golden rule of the casino. If the house is "offering" you a way to make money, they are not being generous. They are making you the exit liquidity. What the onlookers don't know is that the Architects still have millions of their own dollars tied up in the top floors of that failing building. By selling the "short" bets to the onlookers, the Architects are secretly using those premiums to hedge their own massive losses. When the building finally collapses, the Architects will walk away clean, paid for by the exact people who thought they were outsmarting the system. This is happening right now. The Skyscraper is the $1.8 Trillion Private Credit Market. The Locked Doors are the Gated Redemptions. The Architects are JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs. For the last decade, Wall Street built a massive, unregulated shadow-banking boom called Private Credit. They promised investors high, steady yields. But today, the foundation is cracking. Private credit defaults just hit a record 9.2%. The loans given to overvalued software companies are rotting from the inside out. Investors are panicking and trying to pull their money out. But the major funds Blackstone, BlackRock, Morgan Stanley are locking the lobby doors. They are "gating redemptions," trapping the capital inside. So, what are JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs doing? They are walking across the street. They are suddenly offering hedge funds "Short Baskets" custom built tools to bet against the exact private credit market they helped create. Why? Because US Banks have $300 billion of their own exposure to these private credit providers. They are trapped on the top floor. When a major bank comes to you with a shiny new product to short a market, it's not because they want you to get rich. It's because they need a counterparty. They need someone to hold the bag while they quietly deleverage and slip out the back door. The banks that built the bomb are now selling the blast shields. And if you're buying them, you're paying for their escape. RT if you agree that the game is rigged. Follow @ValueWithPrem as we decode the moves of the ultra wealthy. Have you ever bought a financial product only to realize later you were the exit liquidity?
English
Private Credit as a tradable short !
A large yield driven asset class grows rapidly - becomes crowded - liquidity mismatches emerge - under pressure - demand rises for short exposure - products emerge.
Where have we heard this before ?😇
Hint: Think back to GFC/CDS.
English
@negligible_cap Only few understand this👇🏻
Prem Soni@ValueWithPrem
You are walking straight into the biggest wealth trap of the decade because you don't understand how the casino actually works. If the House is offering you a bet, you have already lost. The Architect’s Scam. Imagine a group of elite Architects who build a massive, glittering skyscraper in the center of town. They finance the entire project by convincing thousands of investors to buy suites inside, promising them incredible, steady rental yields. For years, the building is the hottest investment in town. Then, the Architects secretly look at the foundation. They realize the concrete is cracking. The pipes are bursting. The structural integrity is failing fast. The investors inside the building start to smell the smoke. They panic and rush to the lobby to sell their suites and get their money back. But the Architects do something terrifying. They lock the lobby doors. They announce over the intercom: "To protect the value of the building, no one is allowed to sell or leave." Then, the Architects walk across the street, set up a folding table, and wave down a group of wealthy onlookers. The Architects say: "Hey, we have a special, exclusive offer for you. We built a betting pool. For a fee, you can place a bet that the skyscraper across the street is going to collapse." The onlookers think they've just been handed the cheat code to infinite wealth. "The Architects themselves are telling us it's going to fall! This is free money!" But they don't understand the golden rule of the casino. If the house is "offering" you a way to make money, they are not being generous. They are making you the exit liquidity. What the onlookers don't know is that the Architects still have millions of their own dollars tied up in the top floors of that failing building. By selling the "short" bets to the onlookers, the Architects are secretly using those premiums to hedge their own massive losses. When the building finally collapses, the Architects will walk away clean, paid for by the exact people who thought they were outsmarting the system. This is happening right now. The Skyscraper is the $1.8 Trillion Private Credit Market. The Locked Doors are the Gated Redemptions. The Architects are JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs. For the last decade, Wall Street built a massive, unregulated shadow-banking boom called Private Credit. They promised investors high, steady yields. But today, the foundation is cracking. Private credit defaults just hit a record 9.2%. The loans given to overvalued software companies are rotting from the inside out. Investors are panicking and trying to pull their money out. But the major funds Blackstone, BlackRock, Morgan Stanley are locking the lobby doors. They are "gating redemptions," trapping the capital inside. So, what are JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs doing? They are walking across the street. They are suddenly offering hedge funds "Short Baskets" custom built tools to bet against the exact private credit market they helped create. Why? Because US Banks have $300 billion of their own exposure to these private credit providers. They are trapped on the top floor. When a major bank comes to you with a shiny new product to short a market, it's not because they want you to get rich. It's because they need a counterparty. They need someone to hold the bag while they quietly deleverage and slip out the back door. The banks that built the bomb are now selling the blast shields. And if you're buying them, you're paying for their escape. RT if you agree that the game is rigged. Follow @ValueWithPrem as we decode the moves of the ultra wealthy. Have you ever bought a financial product only to realize later you were the exit liquidity?
English
*JPMORGAN, GOLDMAN OFFER HEDGE FUNDS WAY TO SHORT PRIVATE CREDIT
$JPM and $GS are reportedly offering ways to short private credit, giving off 2008 GFC vibes
They’ve assembled baskets of companies with exposure, including alt managers and BDCs.
$OWL and others are fading on the headline
English
Prem Soni@ValueWithPrem
English
Why soaring gold prices aren’t scaring away Gudi Padwa and Ugadi shoppers
@Aishwaryajourno reports ⤵️
moneycontrol.com/news/business/…
English
@elerianm Only few understand this👇🏻
Prem Soni@ValueWithPrem
You are walking straight into the biggest wealth trap of the decade because you don't understand how the casino actually works. If the House is offering you a bet, you have already lost. The Architect’s Scam. Imagine a group of elite Architects who build a massive, glittering skyscraper in the center of town. They finance the entire project by convincing thousands of investors to buy suites inside, promising them incredible, steady rental yields. For years, the building is the hottest investment in town. Then, the Architects secretly look at the foundation. They realize the concrete is cracking. The pipes are bursting. The structural integrity is failing fast. The investors inside the building start to smell the smoke. They panic and rush to the lobby to sell their suites and get their money back. But the Architects do something terrifying. They lock the lobby doors. They announce over the intercom: "To protect the value of the building, no one is allowed to sell or leave." Then, the Architects walk across the street, set up a folding table, and wave down a group of wealthy onlookers. The Architects say: "Hey, we have a special, exclusive offer for you. We built a betting pool. For a fee, you can place a bet that the skyscraper across the street is going to collapse." The onlookers think they've just been handed the cheat code to infinite wealth. "The Architects themselves are telling us it's going to fall! This is free money!" But they don't understand the golden rule of the casino. If the house is "offering" you a way to make money, they are not being generous. They are making you the exit liquidity. What the onlookers don't know is that the Architects still have millions of their own dollars tied up in the top floors of that failing building. By selling the "short" bets to the onlookers, the Architects are secretly using those premiums to hedge their own massive losses. When the building finally collapses, the Architects will walk away clean, paid for by the exact people who thought they were outsmarting the system. This is happening right now. The Skyscraper is the $1.8 Trillion Private Credit Market. The Locked Doors are the Gated Redemptions. The Architects are JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs. For the last decade, Wall Street built a massive, unregulated shadow-banking boom called Private Credit. They promised investors high, steady yields. But today, the foundation is cracking. Private credit defaults just hit a record 9.2%. The loans given to overvalued software companies are rotting from the inside out. Investors are panicking and trying to pull their money out. But the major funds Blackstone, BlackRock, Morgan Stanley are locking the lobby doors. They are "gating redemptions," trapping the capital inside. So, what are JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs doing? They are walking across the street. They are suddenly offering hedge funds "Short Baskets" custom built tools to bet against the exact private credit market they helped create. Why? Because US Banks have $300 billion of their own exposure to these private credit providers. They are trapped on the top floor. When a major bank comes to you with a shiny new product to short a market, it's not because they want you to get rich. It's because they need a counterparty. They need someone to hold the bag while they quietly deleverage and slip out the back door. The banks that built the bomb are now selling the blast shields. And if you're buying them, you're paying for their escape. RT if you agree that the game is rigged. Follow @ValueWithPrem as we decode the moves of the ultra wealthy. Have you ever bought a financial product only to realize later you were the exit liquidity?
English
This, from Bloomberg, is not good news for a market segment that is already challenged to separate signal from noise, let alone properly differentiate among funds/firms in this space.
#markets #privatecredit
English
@CNBCTV18News @anshul91_m The real reason behind gold move nobody is talking about 👇🏻
Prem Soni@ValueWithPrem
English
#Gold and #silver tumble sharply as global cues and macroeconomic factors dent investor sentiment, triggering steep losses across precious metals
Details by @anshul91_m | #GoldPrice #silverprice
Read: cnbctv18.com/market/commodi…
English
@peeyushx 👇🏻
Prem Soni@ValueWithPrem
The Middle class thinks Gold is a Fire Extinguisher. The Rich know Gold is now a Vault. The Fire Extinguisher Illusion. For decades, the financial world operated on a very simple rule: Gold is your emergency insurance. If a fire breaks out in the town a war, a market crash, a sudden panic everyone rushes to the hardware store to buy a fire extinguisher. Demand skyrockets, and the price of fire extinguishers (Gold) goes to the moon. This was the old system. The logic was flawless. But a few years ago, the rules of the town completely changed. The Town Mayor (the US Government) got into a bitter dispute with a wealthy merchant (Russia) and permanently froze his bank accounts. The other wealthy merchants in town the massive oil barons (the Middle East) and the giant factory owners (China) watched this happen in absolute horror. They realized that keeping their billions in surplus profits inside the Mayor's Bank (US Treasuries) was a massive risk. With one phone call, their wealth could be deleted. They needed a new place to park their massive profits. An asset the Mayor couldn't freeze. So, they turned to Gold. But they weren't buying Gold to put out fires. They were buying Gold to build massive, heavy, un cancellable Vaults. Gold transitioned from being an emergency tool for the panicked masses, into the ultimate, neutral savings account for the world's richest merchants. As long as the merchants were exporting goods and making record profits, they took all their extra cash and bought more Gold to build bigger Vaults. The price of Gold steadily climbed. Then, a massive fire breaks out. A blockade shuts down the town's main river (the Strait of Hormuz). Trade stops. Energy prices spike. Panic sets in. The middle class sees the fire and immediately thinks: "Emergency! Time to buy fire extinguishers! Gold is going to skyrocket!" But they are watching the wrong variable. What is happening to the wealthy merchants? The river is blocked. Their oil ships are stuck. Their factory supply chains are crippled. Suddenly, they aren't making record profits anymore. Their cash flow has collapsed. Because they have no extra cash coming in, they immediately stop building new Gold Vaults. Even worse, to keep their businesses afloat and pay their bills during the massive fire, some of these merchants actually have to break off pieces of their existing Gold Vaults and sell them for cash. The price of Gold drops or stalls right in the middle of a massive, terrifying fire. The middle class is left completely confused, holding their paper tickets, wondering why their "safe haven" isn't working. They don't realize the fundamental shift: Gold no longer reacts to the fear of the fire. It reacts to the cash flow of the merchants. When global trade is booming and the merchants are rich, Gold goes up. When trade is blocked and the merchants are squeezed, Gold goes down even if the blockade is terrifying. Conclusion • The Fire Extinguisher (Old Model): Gold driven by panic, volatility, and safe-haven demand. • The Vault (New Model): Gold driven by Central Bank reserve accumulation and trade surpluses (export revenues). • The Blockade (The Reality Check): A geopolitical shock that should cause panic-buying instead causes a collapse in the exact export revenues that have been holding the gold market up. It perfectly flips the old script and explains why a "bullish" geopolitical event is suddenly causing a bearish reaction in the metals market. RT If this changed how you view the markets, to help others break free from the old rulebook. Follow me @ValueWithPrem for more breakdowns on macro shifts and wealth creation. Does this change your thesis on holding physical gold? Why or why not?
QME
Middle East tensions are exploding. Trade routes are blocked. Panic is everywhere.
By every metric in the old financial rulebook, Gold should be skyrocketing to the moon right now. Instead, it’s stalling. Why?
If you hold any physical gold or ETFs, you need to read this immediately👇🏻
Prem Soni@ValueWithPrem
English
The most credible explanation of this that I have seen is that Gulf purchases are drying up.
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter
BREAKING: Gold prices extend losses to -5% on the day and silver falls over -10% as rate cuts are priced out due to rising inflation and soaring energy prices. Gold is now down nearly -$1,000/oz from its record high.
English
Gold is just telling you a liquidity crisis has arrived.
Documenting Saylor@saylordocs
Can anyone please explain me in simple words what the hell is going on with Gold???
English
Is the UAE selling their 74+ tonnes of gold holdings for USDollars?
…to defend their dirham currency = pegged to the US Dollar. The capital flight must be quite large out of Dubai on top of all the financial strains taking place.
English
Gold and Silver are down in what is a very interesting move in how the war is changing markets. In Gold, UAE is one of the largest importers (#1 in 2024, $105bn) and exporters (#2 in 2024, $78bn) of gold and trade there is probably stuck.
Link: trademap.org/Country_SelPro…
English
Gold & Silver Falling Reason.🩸
1. Crude oil prices Up
2. Fed Interest rate Unchanged, Means signal for higher for longer
3. Profit Booking, Already Given huge return recently
4. Strength U.S Dollar
English
⚠️Why are gold and silver prices really falling?
Gold is down -14% and silver -28% over the last 3 weeks, despite the Iran War, Strait of Hormuz blockade, and surging market volatility, conditions that would traditionally send precious metals higher.
Silver is falling harder because ~50% of its demand comes from industrial use, making it far more sensitive to a global economic slowdown triggered by the oil shock.
The reason is that gold is not driven by fear FOR NOW, it is driven by reserve flows from surplus countries.
After the US and Europe froze Russian reserves in 2022, countries with large trade surpluses began shifting excess savings into gold instead of US Treasuries, making reserve accumulation the primary driver of gold prices.
The problem is that the Strait of Hormuz blockade is crushing export revenues for Gulf states like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait.
With revenues collapsing, fears are rising that these countries may need to sell reserves, including gold, to cover government spending rather than accumulating more.
The shock is also rippling through Asia, as China, the world's largest oil importer, faces slowing growth that compresses its surpluses and reserve accumulation.
Put simply, the countries that were buying gold or own it in reserves would have to stop buying for some time or even be forced to sell at some point.
Meanwhile, silver is falling even harder because ~50% of its demand comes from industrial use, making it far more sensitive to a global economic slowdown triggered by the oil shock.
The structural case for gold is not broken, but gold for now moves with global trade, not global market fears.
English
@petrolandeco Sebebi burda adam tane tane açıklamış
x.com/i/status/20346…
Prem Soni@ValueWithPrem
The Middle class thinks Gold is a Fire Extinguisher. The Rich know Gold is now a Vault. The Fire Extinguisher Illusion. For decades, the financial world operated on a very simple rule: Gold is your emergency insurance. If a fire breaks out in the town a war, a market crash, a sudden panic everyone rushes to the hardware store to buy a fire extinguisher. Demand skyrockets, and the price of fire extinguishers (Gold) goes to the moon. This was the old system. The logic was flawless. But a few years ago, the rules of the town completely changed. The Town Mayor (the US Government) got into a bitter dispute with a wealthy merchant (Russia) and permanently froze his bank accounts. The other wealthy merchants in town the massive oil barons (the Middle East) and the giant factory owners (China) watched this happen in absolute horror. They realized that keeping their billions in surplus profits inside the Mayor's Bank (US Treasuries) was a massive risk. With one phone call, their wealth could be deleted. They needed a new place to park their massive profits. An asset the Mayor couldn't freeze. So, they turned to Gold. But they weren't buying Gold to put out fires. They were buying Gold to build massive, heavy, un cancellable Vaults. Gold transitioned from being an emergency tool for the panicked masses, into the ultimate, neutral savings account for the world's richest merchants. As long as the merchants were exporting goods and making record profits, they took all their extra cash and bought more Gold to build bigger Vaults. The price of Gold steadily climbed. Then, a massive fire breaks out. A blockade shuts down the town's main river (the Strait of Hormuz). Trade stops. Energy prices spike. Panic sets in. The middle class sees the fire and immediately thinks: "Emergency! Time to buy fire extinguishers! Gold is going to skyrocket!" But they are watching the wrong variable. What is happening to the wealthy merchants? The river is blocked. Their oil ships are stuck. Their factory supply chains are crippled. Suddenly, they aren't making record profits anymore. Their cash flow has collapsed. Because they have no extra cash coming in, they immediately stop building new Gold Vaults. Even worse, to keep their businesses afloat and pay their bills during the massive fire, some of these merchants actually have to break off pieces of their existing Gold Vaults and sell them for cash. The price of Gold drops or stalls right in the middle of a massive, terrifying fire. The middle class is left completely confused, holding their paper tickets, wondering why their "safe haven" isn't working. They don't realize the fundamental shift: Gold no longer reacts to the fear of the fire. It reacts to the cash flow of the merchants. When global trade is booming and the merchants are rich, Gold goes up. When trade is blocked and the merchants are squeezed, Gold goes down even if the blockade is terrifying. Conclusion • The Fire Extinguisher (Old Model): Gold driven by panic, volatility, and safe-haven demand. • The Vault (New Model): Gold driven by Central Bank reserve accumulation and trade surpluses (export revenues). • The Blockade (The Reality Check): A geopolitical shock that should cause panic-buying instead causes a collapse in the exact export revenues that have been holding the gold market up. It perfectly flips the old script and explains why a "bullish" geopolitical event is suddenly causing a bearish reaction in the metals market. RT If this changed how you view the markets, to help others break free from the old rulebook. Follow me @ValueWithPrem for more breakdowns on macro shifts and wealth creation. Does this change your thesis on holding physical gold? Why or why not?
Türkçe
Körfez ülkelerinin acil nakte ihtiyacı varsa Altın fiyatları ne olur konusunda bir çalışma..
Türkçe
Retail flows into Gold and Silver were record in Jan and Feb.
This is the reason why they are crashing now.
English
The Middle class thinks Gold is a Fire Extinguisher.
The Rich know Gold is now a Vault.
The Fire Extinguisher Illusion.
For decades, the financial world operated on a very simple rule: Gold is your emergency insurance.
If a fire breaks out in the town a war, a market crash, a sudden panic everyone rushes to the hardware store to buy a fire extinguisher. Demand skyrockets, and the price of fire extinguishers (Gold) goes to the moon.
This was the old system. The logic was flawless.
But a few years ago, the rules of the town completely changed.
The Town Mayor (the US Government) got into a bitter dispute with a wealthy merchant (Russia) and permanently froze his bank accounts.
The other wealthy merchants in town the massive oil barons (the Middle East) and the giant factory owners (China) watched this happen in absolute horror. They realized that keeping their billions in surplus profits inside the Mayor's Bank (US Treasuries) was a massive risk. With one phone call, their wealth could be deleted.
They needed a new place to park their massive profits. An asset the Mayor couldn't freeze.
So, they turned to Gold.
But they weren't buying Gold to put out fires. They were buying Gold to build massive, heavy, un cancellable Vaults. Gold transitioned from being an emergency tool for the panicked masses, into the ultimate, neutral savings account for the world's richest merchants.
As long as the merchants were exporting goods and making record profits, they took all their extra cash and bought more Gold to build bigger Vaults. The price of Gold steadily climbed.
Then, a massive fire breaks out.
A blockade shuts down the town's main river (the Strait of Hormuz). Trade stops. Energy prices spike. Panic sets in.
The middle class sees the fire and immediately thinks: "Emergency! Time to buy fire extinguishers! Gold is going to skyrocket!"
But they are watching the wrong variable.
What is happening to the wealthy merchants?
The river is blocked. Their oil ships are stuck. Their factory supply chains are crippled. Suddenly, they aren't making record profits anymore. Their cash flow has collapsed.
Because they have no extra cash coming in, they immediately stop building new Gold Vaults.
Even worse, to keep their businesses afloat and pay their bills during the massive fire, some of these merchants actually have to break off pieces of their existing Gold Vaults and sell them for cash.
The price of Gold drops or stalls right in the middle of a massive, terrifying fire.
The middle class is left completely confused, holding their paper tickets, wondering why their "safe haven" isn't working.
They don't realize the fundamental shift:
Gold no longer reacts to the fear of the fire. It reacts to the cash flow of the merchants.
When global trade is booming and the merchants are rich, Gold goes up.
When trade is blocked and the merchants are squeezed, Gold goes down even if the blockade is terrifying.
Conclusion
• The Fire Extinguisher (Old Model): Gold driven by panic, volatility, and safe-haven demand.
• The Vault (New Model): Gold driven by Central Bank reserve accumulation and trade surpluses (export revenues).
• The Blockade (The Reality Check): A geopolitical shock that should cause panic-buying instead causes a collapse in the exact export revenues that have been holding the gold market up.
It perfectly flips the old script and explains why a "bullish" geopolitical event is suddenly causing a bearish reaction in the metals market.
RT If this changed how you view the markets, to help others break free from the old rulebook.
Follow me @ValueWithPrem for more breakdowns on macro shifts and wealth creation.
Does this change your thesis on holding physical gold? Why or why not?
Prem Soni@ValueWithPrem
You will NEVER see GOLD at these levels again in your lifetime.
English