Ashbourne
3.1K posts
Ashbourne
@ash_bourne0
Degen maxi ◇ Stocks Trader ◇ Gamer ◇ AI explorer🧭 Obsessed with AI tools to see how each works.
Trenches Присоединился Şubat 2026
100 Подписки117 Подписчики
How many predictions does it take before skill outweighs luck?
The key point is that there is no universal number. It depends on:
a: How much true skill exists in the domain
b: How noisy outcomes are
c: The magnitude of the edge
If someone has a substantial edge, skill can become statistically obvious after 50–200 predictions.
The key is the scoring metric.
A forecaster who goes 7/10 may be lucky. A forecaster who goes 700/1,000 with a consistently superior Brier score is much harder to dismiss.
Win rate measures outcomes. Brier score measures forecasting quality. Over a large enough sample, calibration and accuracy reveal skill while luck washes out.
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@cometcalls MeV got destroyed by his own bot? Yes that's what we love to see.
Toast him some more
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Somebody ate his lunch
All his bread gone
Wallet got toasted
He’s a po’ boy
Bro is a $5 inch long now
Aggr News@AggrNews
FAMOUS MEV BOT "JAREDFROMSUBWAY" APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN EXPLOITED FOR OVER $15M: ONCHAIN
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@realdogen Brother doesn't care if tricks were used on him, he has no complaints😭😂😂
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@stekisteks CWU is definitely worth buying if you're into smart plays.
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Chinese models are overtaking the American ones.
GLM-5.2 has surpassed Anthropic's Opus 4.8.
If the US government doesn't move to bring back SOTA made-in-US models, China is going to have a lead like we've never seen before.
What Amodei was talking about just a few months ago at the World Economic Forum, he saw it coming.
You stop for one second and your number one rival immediately gains ground, without waiting around for any "regulations".
Fable 5 is coming back very soon, trust me.
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While everyone's chasing dead-ends, I've been looking for a token that's serious about building. $CWU is a legit RWA play, building on an already established structure,it's the digital layer needed to complete it all. It has an advisory board with former presidents and a Solana-powered media network already hitting 12M readers across the Commonwealth.
It corrected after hitting a $0.133 ATH in May, making this the ultimate value entry before the bounce back to 120M. Don't fade the data.
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@drippy_eth @FundingPredicts Hoping we clock higher numbers soon enough on Funding Predicts
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WOW.
Users on @FundingPredicts have over 100K in positions on the USA vs Australia game 🤯
Traders seem to be riding with USA on this one 🇺🇸
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Devin brings up a huge point here in the prop industry- we have no interest partnering with anyone that claims "transparency" when it's as simple as paying to get listed on their site.
Meanwhile anyone who doesn't pay get's quoted constantly "scam, scam, scam." The real scam is calling yourself "trusted prop" and then charging for listings and visibility.
Devin@0xDevin_
Exposing @trustedprophub Trusted Prop Hub claims they "don't do fake paid reviews just to promote firms" — but that's far from the truth. This morning, I was checking the DM requests on the Funding Predicts main account and saw a message from Trusted Prop Hub. I was excited, thinking more prop firm pages wanted to work with us. Sadly, that excitement didn't last. Sadly, that excitement didn't last. Trusted Prop Hub wanted to charge us between $800 and $2,000 a month for a "partnership" with a 6 month commitment. This "partnership" includes: Multiple posts/reposts per week Payout highlights and trader success stories Promotion of ongoing offers, discounts, campaigns, and announcements It's sad to see what the prop industry has become. A page called Trusted Prop Hub, meant to show traders the best and most trustworthy prop firms, is really just a paid shill for any firm willing to buy one of their "partnership" packages. I wouldn't trust anything you see from these guys, and I'm sure there are many more pages like this one. Here's a list of firms they told us they currently work with: Goatfunded, BemFunding, QTFunded, Equity Edge, Upcomers, Funding Traders, and others.
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@predicttime_ @FundingPredicts @Polymarket @klimonchain Seemed like it was a far-fetched idea but they made it work
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Most prop firms fund futures and CFD traders @FundingPredicts took the harder road and built a prop firm exclusively for prediction markets
You trade real @Polymarket events on their capital, on the live orderbook, no simulated fills, no artificial spreads. Pass a single-phase evaluation, get funded, keep up to 90% of profits, no personal capital at risk
A proven prop model from futures, now applied to a brand-new asset class
Live on Predict Time
- @drippy_eth, Founder & CEO Funding Predicts
- @BagCalls, co-owner and advisor
June 23, 4:00 PM UTC
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@CryptoMiners_Co @binance I love how Binance handled this so now, both users and Binance don't suffer
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MiCA was supposed to make Europe simpler for digital asset companies
one framework, one set of rules, and a clearer path to operating across the region
which is why the recent situation around @binance’s MiCA application has raised important questions about how the framework is being implemented in practice
Binance says it has spent the last 18 months working through the MiCA process and engaging with regulators, yet uncertainty around the outcome remains
that matters because regulatory clarity affects more than just companies. it impacts liquidity, competition, product availability, and ultimately user choice
Binance has stated that users can continue to access, withdraw, and manage their accounts as normal, while remaining committed to its European users and ongoing compliance efforts
Europe has a real opportunity to become a leader in digital assets, but that depends on MiCA being applied consistently and predictably across member states
the discussion may involve Binance today, but the outcome matters for the future of Europe’s digital asset market as a whole
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@cometcalls Saying it's the next Hyperliquid might be a stretch but it does look promising
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PRESIDENT TRUMP: “UNFORTUNATELY, IN RECENT YEARS THE U.S. GOVERNMENT SOLD TENS OF THOUSANDS OF
$BTC
.''
''THAT WOULD NOW BE WORTH BILLIONS.”
“FROM THIS DAY FORWARD, AMERICA WILL FOLLOW THE RULE EVERY BITCOINER KNOWS…”
“NEVER SELL YOUR BITCOIN.”
Trump definitely has the right idea lol
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@BetOnShard @FundingPredicts Yh, it's a good partnership. I'm planning to get started on funding predicts soon. They've been solid.
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New partner coming to Shard: @FundingPredicts.
If you’re a strong trader but need more capital, FundingPredict lets you trade with funded capital after passing a qualification challenge.
Shard users get exclusive perks: 20% off, plus future incentives 🎁
More capital behind your edge.
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@iambroots I've got full respect for you chad, so many opportunities you've made for chads.
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Moon King..... the 1st to tell and remind Crypto X about the solana:So11111111111111111111111111111111111111112 airdrop coming July 7 and show you how influencers get paid. Notice how price is going up.
Watch the parrots come out of the woodworks acting like they know the game after hearing it be regurgitated from my alpha and findings.
How Crypto Twitter Works Usually
Overtime..... you will understand that the best chance YOU have to win at this game is by
Following and Subscribing To Me
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Money does not move slowly because people lack ambition.
It moves slowly because the systems around them were not built for the world we now live in.
For businesses across Commonwealth markets, this is not a small issue.
It is the difference between opportunity existing and opportunity being reachable.
CommonWealth Union Blockchain Network@CWUblockchain
56 Nations. Decades of Trust. One Missing Layer. 👇 The Commonwealth already connects 56 nations. These countries trade with each other, do business with each other, and share long-standing relationships built over decades. But even when two countries are already connected, moving money between them can still be slow, expensive, and complicated. That is the problem. A business in one Commonwealth country may want to sell to a buyer in another. The trust may already be there. The relationship may already be there. The opportunity may already be there. But the payment can still take too long. The process can still involve too many steps. And small businesses often feel this the most. That is why $CWU matters. $CWU is not trying to create the Commonwealth from zero. The network already exists. The people, businesses, and relationships are already there. $CWU is being built to help connect that network in a faster, simpler, more digital way. The money is already moving. The opportunity is already there. The missing piece is a better way to connect it all. That is where $CWU comes in.
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@CWUblockchain I love how $CWU is trying to build on an already standing foundation
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56 Nations. Decades of Trust. One Missing Layer. 👇
The Commonwealth already connects 56 nations. These countries trade with each other, do business with each other, and share long-standing relationships built over decades.
But even when two countries are already connected, moving money between them can still be slow, expensive, and complicated.
That is the problem.
A business in one Commonwealth country may want to sell to a buyer in another. The trust may already be there. The relationship may already be there. The opportunity may already be there.
But the payment can still take too long.
The process can still involve too many steps.
And small businesses often feel this the most.
That is why $CWU matters.
$CWU is not trying to create the Commonwealth from zero. The network already exists. The people, businesses, and relationships are already there.
$CWU is being built to help connect that network in a faster, simpler, more digital way.
The money is already moving.
The opportunity is already there.
The missing piece is a better way to connect it all.
That is where $CWU comes in.
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