550M

$MSFT Follow the leader.

While everyone was distracted by earnings noise, $MSFT just finalized a decade-level structural signal: $MSFT officially printed a monthly 8/21ema bearish cross this week. This has happened only 4 other times since its 1986 IPO... Every single occurrence coincided with a major macro regime change: > 2000: The dot-com peak > 2006: The top of the housing bubble > 2008: The GFC acceleration > 2022: The end of the zero interest rate policy era And 2026 is now the 5th time: The global energy crisis. Trends at this scale move slowly, but they are the most objective indicators of capital flow. Given Microsoft's index weight, this breakdown represents a significant structural headwind for both $SPY and $QQQ. It's a sign of things to come. (8ema🟠/ 21ema🟣/ bearish cross🟥)

Je trouve que c'est complètement absurde de comparer l'IA à la bulle internet simplement parce qu'on voit l'augmentation rapide de la valorisation de certaines entreprises. À part le fait qu'on parle de révolution technologique associée à une forme de spéculation, je ne vois absolument aucune autre similitude. L'IA n'est pas une promesse qui se réalise difficilement et pas en >15 ans comme internet. L'IA a déjà transformé nos sociétés en moins de 4 ans. L'adoption est rapide, explosive et massive. Internet allait impulser une transformation mais la digitalisation a pris 20 ans et n'est pas terminée Les sociétés qui explosent font factuellement des croissances de leurs marges et CA dans un délai extrêmement court. En 2000 tout le monde pouvait réunir une équipe de développeurs et créer une .com. Avec l'IA c'est du hardware qui explose, avec une barrière à l'entrée qui est massive : - Sur les matières premières - Des MOAT massifs sur des sociétés qui ont 15 ans de R&D derrière elles et un business impossible à répliquer sans poser des 10 voire 100 aines de milliards sur la table (coucou Terafab). - Il y a des enjeux souverains et de données. Et encore, elles sont valorisées sur leurs bénéfices actuels et sur un forward court. Alors que leur business est pour beaucoup IMPOSSIBLE à répliquer. Moi je trouve au contraire le marché encore sous-valorisé en tenant compte de cela. La seule raison qui pourrait justifier le fait qu'on ait des valorisations excessives, c'est que pour une raison ou une autre on ait moins besoin d'hardware que prévu pour faire tourner l'IA. C'est vraiment le seul risque à mon sens. D'où le fait qu'à mon sens faut surtout lire prendre le temps de lire les papiers de recherche des différents labo d'IA pour mesurer ce risque (JEPA avec LeWM, Neural computer etc..)

While everyone was distracted by earnings noise, $MSFT just finalized a decade-level structural signal: $MSFT officially printed a monthly 8/21ema bearish cross this week. This has happened only 4 other times since its 1986 IPO... Every single occurrence coincided with a major macro regime change: > 2000: The dot-com peak > 2006: The top of the housing bubble > 2008: The GFC acceleration > 2022: The end of the zero interest rate policy era And 2026 is now the 5th time: The global energy crisis. Trends at this scale move slowly, but they are the most objective indicators of capital flow. Given Microsoft's index weight, this breakdown represents a significant structural headwind for both $SPY and $QQQ. It's a sign of things to come. (8ema🟠/ 21ema🟣/ bearish cross🟥)

While everyone was distracted by earnings noise, $MSFT just finalized a decade-level structural signal: $MSFT officially printed a monthly 8/21ema bearish cross this week. This has happened only 4 other times since its 1986 IPO... Every single occurrence coincided with a major macro regime change: > 2000: The dot-com peak > 2006: The top of the housing bubble > 2008: The GFC acceleration > 2022: The end of the zero interest rate policy era And 2026 is now the 5th time: The global energy crisis. Trends at this scale move slowly, but they are the most objective indicators of capital flow. Given Microsoft's index weight, this breakdown represents a significant structural headwind for both $SPY and $QQQ. It's a sign of things to come. (8ema🟠/ 21ema🟣/ bearish cross🟥)

The Nasdaq $NDX breakout began today. The speed of this rally is absolutely insane, likely getting us back to the trendline by next week. The question is what happens when we get there? The 25 year parabolic is curling backward in time.

While everyone was distracted by earnings noise, $MSFT just finalized a decade-level structural signal: $MSFT officially printed a monthly 8/21ema bearish cross this week. This has happened only 4 other times since its 1986 IPO... Every single occurrence coincided with a major macro regime change: > 2000: The dot-com peak > 2006: The top of the housing bubble > 2008: The GFC acceleration > 2022: The end of the zero interest rate policy era And 2026 is now the 5th time: The global energy crisis. Trends at this scale move slowly, but they are the most objective indicators of capital flow. Given Microsoft's index weight, this breakdown represents a significant structural headwind for both $SPY and $QQQ. It's a sign of things to come. (8ema🟠/ 21ema🟣/ bearish cross🟥)

While everyone was distracted by earnings noise, $MSFT just finalized a decade-level structural signal: $MSFT officially printed a monthly 8/21ema bearish cross this week. This has happened only 4 other times since its 1986 IPO... Every single occurrence coincided with a major macro regime change: > 2000: The dot-com peak > 2006: The top of the housing bubble > 2008: The GFC acceleration > 2022: The end of the zero interest rate policy era And 2026 is now the 5th time: The global energy crisis. Trends at this scale move slowly, but they are the most objective indicators of capital flow. Given Microsoft's index weight, this breakdown represents a significant structural headwind for both $SPY and $QQQ. It's a sign of things to come. (8ema🟠/ 21ema🟣/ bearish cross🟥)

While everyone was distracted by earnings noise, $MSFT just finalized a decade-level structural signal: $MSFT officially printed a monthly 8/21ema bearish cross this week. This has happened only 4 other times since its 1986 IPO... Every single occurrence coincided with a major macro regime change: > 2000: The dot-com peak > 2006: The top of the housing bubble > 2008: The GFC acceleration > 2022: The end of the zero interest rate policy era And 2026 is now the 5th time: The global energy crisis. Trends at this scale move slowly, but they are the most objective indicators of capital flow. Given Microsoft's index weight, this breakdown represents a significant structural headwind for both $SPY and $QQQ. It's a sign of things to come. (8ema🟠/ 21ema🟣/ bearish cross🟥)

A historic earnings boom is developing. Estimates growing faster than they did in the mid-90s or late internet bubble years. Only covid recovery period saw a greater inflection. This boom is unique b/c it is not coming off an EPS drawdown (recovery).

While everyone was distracted by earnings noise, $MSFT just finalized a decade-level structural signal: $MSFT officially printed a monthly 8/21ema bearish cross this week. This has happened only 4 other times since its 1986 IPO... Every single occurrence coincided with a major macro regime change: > 2000: The dot-com peak > 2006: The top of the housing bubble > 2008: The GFC acceleration > 2022: The end of the zero interest rate policy era And 2026 is now the 5th time: The global energy crisis. Trends at this scale move slowly, but they are the most objective indicators of capital flow. Given Microsoft's index weight, this breakdown represents a significant structural headwind for both $SPY and $QQQ. It's a sign of things to come. (8ema🟠/ 21ema🟣/ bearish cross🟥)

Almost no one uses this chart correctly... but it's one of the best ways to tell if a move up will continue or fail. The answer becomes very apparent for the current $QQQ and $SPY move when you look at the internal structure under a different light: This is a daily chart of the percentage of $SPY stocks above the 50 day moving average. I removed the candlesticks because what matters most is not the actual raw percentage, but the interaction between its own moving averages. Specifically the 10ema🟠 and 200sma🟢 for the percentage itself. The last time the 10ema struggled to get above the 200sma following a deep move in breadth was Feb 2025 prior to the tariff selloff. We are seeing that same failed expansion pattern happening right now. Conversely, in order for a move up to fully sustain, the 10ema needs to slice above the 200sma with absolute ease like it did back in May 2025 during the recovery. That is clearly not the case currently. This doesn't necessarily mean the exact top, but when internal momentum stalls against long-term moving averages while also making lower highs, it's worth paying attention to.

The US oil export ban is no longer a tail risk; it’s now the base case. As crude tanker and US midstream charts break down while PADD 3 refineries show strength, a major policy shift appears imminent. Most concerning are the death cross and bear flag in the PAA/USO ratio - this divergence between logistics and commodity is a massive warning sign. $FRO $PAA $USO $XLE $VLO Technical study for educational purposes; not financial advice or a trade signal. (8ema orange / 21ema purple / 50sma yellow / 150sma blue / 200sma green)

The $RSP 4 hour chart is also on the verge of an 8/21ema bearish cross. The last time we saw this structural breakdown was March 4th, the beginning of the March $SPY correction. Internal momentum is diverging across the board.

Almost no one uses this chart correctly... but it's one of the best ways to tell if a move up will continue or fail. The answer becomes very apparent for the current $QQQ and $SPY move when you look at the internal structure under a different light: This is a daily chart of the percentage of $SPY stocks above the 50 day moving average. I removed the candlesticks because what matters most is not the actual raw percentage, but the interaction between its own moving averages. Specifically the 10ema🟠 and 200sma🟢 for the percentage itself. The last time the 10ema struggled to get above the 200sma following a deep move in breadth was Feb 2025 prior to the tariff selloff. We are seeing that same failed expansion pattern happening right now. Conversely, in order for a move up to fully sustain, the 10ema needs to slice above the 200sma with absolute ease like it did back in May 2025 during the recovery. That is clearly not the case currently. This doesn't necessarily mean the exact top, but when internal momentum stalls against long-term moving averages while also making lower highs, it's worth paying attention to.

The US oil export ban is no longer a tail risk; it’s now the base case. As crude tanker and US midstream charts break down while PADD 3 refineries show strength, a major policy shift appears imminent. Most concerning are the death cross and bear flag in the PAA/USO ratio - this divergence between logistics and commodity is a massive warning sign. $FRO $PAA $USO $XLE $VLO Technical study for educational purposes; not financial advice or a trade signal. (8ema orange / 21ema purple / 50sma yellow / 150sma blue / 200sma green)