Dave Dunkin

@bschippers @wholemars @TezLabApp Give me v14 lite on HW3 for $50/mo and we got a deal

The FSD subscription flywheel is real, and nobody's tracking it. Here's what's actually happening inside Tesla's FSD business right now, from our fleet telemetry data at @TezLabApp. The metric nobody's watching: subscribed % of fleet. Oct '25: 2.42% Jan '26: 3.56% Apr '26: 5.24% That's more than doubled in six months. And it's accelerating. Subscribed share added almost a full point in March alone (4.34% → 5.13%). To understand why, you have to go back to what Tesla did over the holidays. In late November 2025, Tesla pushed a free 40-day FSD v14 trial to roughly 1.5 million HW4 vehicles. Biggest trial deployment they've ever run, timed perfectly for holiday road trips. In our data, December's new subscriber cohort was 84% trial users, just 16% paid. Tesla was betting that seat time would convert free users into paying customers. That trial expired January 8. What happened next is the interesting part. Trial volume collapsed. December's cohort was overwhelmingly trial, but January flipped to 78% paid. By March: 97% paid. April is tracking 96%. The trial-as-funnel strategy didn't produce mass conversion. But what it did do is clarify the subscriber base. Look at M1 retention (the percentage still subscribed after one month) by subscriber type: Paid M1 retention is consistently in the 86–100% range across cohorts with meaningful sample sizes. Remarkably stable. Trial M1 retention: 81% in October, 41% by March. And by M2 (two months), trial retention drops to single digits. The December holiday cohort, Tesla's biggest bet, retained just 1% at M2. Essentially nobody who got the free trial stuck around. Here's the thing people will miss. The overall M1 retention number for March looks great at 91.1%. But it looks great because the composition changed, not because retention "improved" in the abstract. When 97% of your cohort is paid subscribers who retain at 92%+, the blended number naturally rises. That's not a retention improvement. It's a base quality improvement. Important distinction. Then on February 14, Tesla ended outright FSD purchases entirely. No more $8,000 one-time buy option. It's $99/month or nothing. (as of today:) This is where the compounding kicks in. The mechanics: new paid subscribers enter each month. They retain at 87%+ even four months in (the October '25 paid cohort, our oldest with M4 data, is still at 87%). Very few leave. Each new month's cohort stacks on top of the ones still there. Since the trial churn cleared in late January, activations have exceeded churns every single week. 12 straight and counting. That's how you get subscribed share doubling. Meanwhile purchased % peaked around 8.5% in December and has been slowly eroding. 7.78% and declining. Natural attrition as people sell vehicles, trade in, etc. Since Tesla killed the purchase option, that line can only go down from here. The subscribed line can only go up. At the current trajectory, they cross sometime this year. (A few older subscribers transferred FSD to HW4 but that's a very small number.) One more corroborating signal worth paying attention to: the people who subscribe aren't casual about it. FSD now accounts for 50.5% of driving distance and 63.1% of driving duration among users. These aren't people toggling it on occasionally. FSD is their default driving mode. The gap between distance and duration is itself interesting. FSD overindexes on city and slower-speed driving versus highway, which is where the higher duration percentage comes from. That's consistent with what we see in the whole-drive autonomy data: v14.x users complete 50% of their drives entirely on FSD without intervention. What this doesn't tell you: whether the holiday trial "failed." You could frame 1.5 million free trials with near-zero conversion as a waste. Or you could frame it as Tesla stress-testing the funnel at massive scale and learning that the product now sells itself to people who are ready to pay. No free taste needed. The fact that Tesla followed the trial by killing outright purchases suggests they're betting on the second interpretation. Either way, the observable outcome is this: the casual users washed out, the purchase option is gone, and what's left is a subscription base that compounds because retention is high enough that inflows consistently beat outflows. That's the flywheel. And it's the number to watch going forward. Exclusive data from @TezLabApp fleet telemetry · gigalytics.io @CernBasher @herbertong @wholemars @DirtyTesLa @farzyness

@jfazli @KevinBuffalo Bro got Maui and San Francisco wrong.

@KevinBuffalo Hard one bro, but I got it: Anchorage AK Honolulu HI Reno NV (tricky!) Portland OR Seattle WA And here's the real trick one no one wil think of: Sacramento, CA!!! Los Angeles isn't the capital. You're welcome.

There are six state capitals west of Los Angeles. I just wanted you to know that.

@The_Monolith101 @uncledoomer x.com/germanicfren/s…

@uncledoomer lauda wasn't autistic he was german

my favorite genre of movie is "autistic man drives cars" no idea why. just speaks to me

@Emotion78687 Goo Goo Dolls started as a punk cover band, and their early stuff is garbage, but they nailed it in the 90s

There was a time on this planet when great musicians created magic.

@RealDonKeith This only works because these actors are already established, but this movie needs to be made

Actors are so cooked. This is the most amazing AI I’ve seen yet and it’s even getting the emotions fairly accurate. Great work from Taylor Chien. I might even go watch this movie.

@TheStingisBack My favorite movie as a kid

Condorman (1981) is fascinating. Disney attempted a James Bond/superhero rival starring Michael Crawford (yes, Frank Spencer from Some Mothers Do ’Ave ’Em). It didn't fly, but it has moments of brilliance: Henry Mancini's score, the locations, Oliver Reed, and this Porsche chase

He got better video than the NASA live stream

@AppleTV @F1 I can’t watch the race on my Roku TV because the HDR encoding is broken for the stream and replay in the AppleTV app (muted colors) and the F1TV app can’t decode the video fast enough and won’t switch to a lower bitrate stream (constant locking up and skipping in the video stream, not network buffering). Please fix! Other AppleTV HDR content is fine, and HDR race replays from last season play fine in F1TV app.

@squeakysleep I watched Knife Edge and quickly realized I would really like to try a 1 or maybe 2 star restaurant but would not enjoy a 3 star

My husband and I saved up over 1k to eat at a 3 star Michelin restaurant in Napa and it wasn’t that good and I was angry afterwards and I’ll never do anything like that again

@jimz61 @DavidLimbaugh Verbum is the version of Logos tailored to Catholics

@DavidLimbaugh Just beware. The base packages of this software contain only the books of the Protestant versions of the bible. In other words, if you're Catholic, beware. Make sure you get the whole truth by including all that Martin Luther removed for his own convenience.

Logos Bible Software is beyond incredible as a Bible study tool, and all the myriad things that involves.. Choose to distrust me at your peril. That is all.

Dave rubs a magic lamp and the genie grants him 3 wishes... Genie: What will be your first wish? Dave: I want to be rich Genie: Granted. What will be your second wish? Rich: I want a lot of money

@JamesGunn Why must screenplays always be presented in Courier?

For your enjoyment, the Superman screenplay. superman.com/script/superma…

@PurefoyAmebo @screenrant BB-8

@screenrant “Well, Mark, it's not Luke's story anymore.” Does anyone actually remember the names of the “new” characters they tried to introduce in those films?

"I said, 'aren't we gonna have a moment where all three of us get together and raise the roof, it'll only take thirty seconds.' And JJ said, 'well, Mark, it's not Luke's story anymore.' I said, 'Star Wars wasn't Obi-Wan's story but Alec Guiness had a crucial commitment, you know...' Anyway, nobody listens to me." - Mark Hamill. 🎬 screenrant.com/star-wars-mark…

The pushback on the volume issue is interesting. (Thanks for all the input on all sides.) There are something like 57 "one anothers" in the New Testament. So many about encouraging one another, building one another up. There's so much about unity as central to who we are. ...and then we have one person's voice drown out everyone else? Children's sweet voices, older folks, people who are elated to be newly free of addictions, our own families... why don't get to hear them? It just doesn't make "Kingdom sense" to me. I want to harmonize with the old lady next to me. But we don't get to hear each other? I say this as a musician who has led worship and who currently gets club gigs as a singer/player: Concerts are great, but communal worship is not to be a concert. The heart of it has to be different. Let people sing, "addressing one another in psalms and hymns and spiritual songs, singing and making melody to the Lord with your heart." Let us hear each other. Please. Encourage and equip people to sing. Don't put up barriers. Humans sing all over the world; in pubs, working in fields, on fishing boats, or at soccer games... just lead singable songs in an easy key and let us belt it out. It's so good when we do. Again, thanks for kind interactions, even from those who disagree.

Okay... I'm going to sound like real-life @ChrchCurmudgeon here, but here goes... If you are a church musician, and you honestly want to "lead people in worship" through music, you may want to do the following: 1) Pick a singable key for the median person who doesn't sing all the time. Don't pick a key to highlight your voice. 2) Lower the volume so people can hear the voices of those around them, and themselves. 3) Let people sing the melodies that are familiar to them. While you may want to jazz up or do the latest CCM twist of "Hark the Herald" or "Silent Night"--people can't follow you. They just want to sing the song. Picking keys to highlight your voice; playing at concert volume; doing creative rearrangements to make the familiar suddenly unfamiliar... all discourage us from singing. There's NOTHING wrong with highlighting your voice, or playing at concert volume, or doing creative rearrangements of songs... if you are a performer. Book a gig somewhere! Play out! Be great! Build a following! But please, when we all get together and sing, don't put up barriers to stop us.

@dlevine815 Opt-space should work flawlessly every time on macOS. If I have to change windows and open a browser, I’m much more likely to use Grok instead.

We've got big plans to improve the core ChatGPT experience in 2026. What are some thing you'd love to see? Even small ideas welcome! Looking forward to getting them built 🙏

It’s cool how I pay for Netflix’s top tier and gigabit Internet, and movies still look like they’re drawn in crayon

@historigins Big Chuck and Little John!

In 1986, Cleveland launched 1.5 million balloons into the sky to try and break a world record, but it turned into a complete disaster

@Thefactsdude @Mericamemed @chrisbroad374 He jumped over E Bloomfield Pkwy, not Recker Rd.

Here are The Facts 🤙🏽 Thanks for the tag @chrisbroad374 Follow to tag when a post is needing context 🤙🏽 Viral Dirt Bike Jump Lands Teen in Handcuffs — Gilbert, AZ — Posted Dec 4, 2025 A viral Instagram clip shows 18-year-old Sam Campbell launching his dirt bike about 15 feet into the air and roughly 125 feet across Recker Road in a Gilbert neighborhood, clearing a roadway, median, and oncoming lane before landing in a grassy area near homes. Gilbert Police say the jump happened around 3:30 p.m., when families and kids were out in the area, calling the stunt “careless” and “outrageous.” Campbell was arrested the same day and is facing a reckless driving charge; his dirt bike was impounded as evidence and will not be released. Campbell’s father says his son knows he was wrong, is remorseful, and has “suffered a whole litany of consequences,” while some neighbors have complained about ongoing problems with teens riding bikes recklessly in the neighborhood.

Whoever called the cops 100% watches their wife from the corner chair

@TheJuiceGuy7 @GARYWILLIS23025 @Mericamemed Nope, it’s Morrison Ranch HOA greenbelt in Gilbert, private property.

@GARYWILLIS23025 @Mericamemed A public drainage swale to another public drainage swale. You're just simply wrong.