@0xAmSS @TheShortBear Also this deal looks great for Iran. I would be surprised if the U.S. would agree to it.
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Varro
930 posts
Varro
@pathus21
Stock and options trader focused on steel, copper, tech, and growth equities.
Присоединился Ocak 2012
556 Подписки171 Подписчики
@TheShortBear what is it in here that is positive for Iran for it to reopen the strait ?
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Not even 24h later we receive the expected framework, hope you understand why these were likely from below.
Pakistan’s proposed two-phase deal, reportedly being referred to as the Islamabad Accord.
Phase I
▫️ Immediate ceasefire
▫️ Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
Phase II
▫️ To take effect in 15 to 20 days
▫️ Comprehensive peace agreement
▫️ Full end to the Iran-US war
The final deal could reportedly include:
▫️ Iran giving up its nuclear program
▫️ Lifting of all sanctions on Iran
▫️ Release of Iran’s frozen assets
▫️ Permission for Iran to sell oil freely on global markets
▫️ A broader framework for the Strait of Hormuz
Source: Reuters
THE SHORT BEAR@TheShortBear
View over the playing field and thoughts As we head into the 48h, I mean 72h deadline and panic spreads, I would give a breakdown on what could offer an off ramp. In war escalation is sometimes needed to deescalate while incentives start to align. 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war, the 1991 gulf war, Afghanistan… all offer insights. Now to the present day and what we learn from the past. First to the obvious. This war will only end with a graceful win for both ends. Trump needs a win for the midterms, for his plummeting approval rate as well as to justify and respect the fallen soldiers and $30b+ spent on the war. Iran needs a win for the IRGC to stand tall not only on the eyes of its country but also because of regional players in the gulf and specifically Israel. Iran has proven to have strong leverage with the strait, they will never have this opportunity again and thus will push until the end and an acceptable deal. What is not negotiable and leverage? Iran likely understands they will not be getting full sovereignty over Hormuz, that’s the biggest negotiating anchor to make the other demands look reasonable by comparison. This would mean the end to the petrodollar as we know it, unacceptable for the US. Trump’s maximalist threats about destroying power plants and desalination are the same thing from the other side. It would plunge Iran into chaos and create extreme civil unrest, against the US but also against the IRGC which would have nothing left but rage. This would not only destroy Iran but guarantee the gulf to be destroyed including desalination pools, energy and alike. This would be the end of the gulf as we know it. Unacceptable. Trump is basically willing or posturing as willing to go nuclear rather than fold. He is asking for a graceful exit. Escalate from both ends to deescalate in a high stake negotiation game. But both need to come to the table. Time table A large portion of what feels like unstoppable escalation and a very fast war is due to the oil supply destruction timeline. The time is ticking with less than a week until counties, continents panic and have to ration. Each day a deal isn’t struck, allies and alike will be incentivized to cut a deal with Iran to let tankers and the oil flow. This isn’t don against the USA but truly out of self preservation. This is why we are seeing this massive pressure right now. Asia: April 1 Europe: April 10 North America: April 15 Australia: April 20 Recent headlines are constructive. JUST IN: 🇮🇷 Iran demands war compensation to reopen Strait of Hormuz. Compensations allows for both ends to save face and a lot of different parties are incentivized to do so. Effectively control of the strait has the same same in the end. Compensations doesn’t mean straight payments, it would mean frozen Iranian assets partially getting released in exchange for Hormuz reopening against a verified nuclear commitment, which likely will end up looking like the exact Obama deal Trump tore apart during his first mandate. Trump would frame it as “Iran surrendered their nuclear program and we got the strait open.” Iran frames it as “we extracted a price and achieved dignity.” Both sides claim victory. The Gulf states, mainly Saudi, UAE, Kuwait, have every incentive to co-finance this quietly. Now to the deal we could see.
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@priceactiontds @TheShortBear Back channels are where the real conversation is happening.
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@TheShortBear i get where you are coming from but don't you think you kinda ignore literally every piece of information given from the two war parties? us is throwing a tantrum while iran says, "fuck you, pay me". they can call the deal whatever they want, iran knows it has all the lvg
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@TheShortBear Best way to play? I am thinking CRCL, BTC, ETH (more for agentic AI.
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Just fyi.
This might be bad for the dollar but it also massively incentivizes the US to push for leadership in crypto and stable coins.
US needs the stable coins and crypto projects to be built and backed by the USD.
Either way incentives point towards crypto being an important space to push forward, from a defense and offense position.
hence US pushing for the genius and now clarity act as well as strategic reserve.
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If we see Iran actually manage to cut deals with European and Asian country, bypassing US-Dollar in the region and even getting paid in Crypto...
That will be the biggest bull case for Crypto we have perhaps ever seen.
It will show that no major power can weaponize their currency as an oppressor.
This is not about US vs China.
The US is the example in this major conflict but people will see the US as a potentially interchangeable party.
Today's US could be tomorrows China (even if historically speaking they focus on domestic and not foreign affairs, while US is expansionary in nature as it continuously goes to war).
As we head into more uncertain times and frictions arise between superpowers, there is a great need for a apolitical and unsanctionable means of payment.
I understand that this had been a bull case presented by many years ago, my point is saying this conflict was a worldwide one: Europe, USA, China, Asia, Australia...
All countries were involved and while the Yuan is being floated as the deal currency as many countries are not set up to pay in crypto just yet, it fully validates the need for such a currency.
Especially as the trend shows an increasing possibility of a major conflict between the US and China over the long term, countries will have to choose crypto to remain apolitical and neutral.
Any neutrality and unsanctionability will need an alternative payment system which Crypto will provide.
This conflict together with the new crypto rails might just accelerate the strategic crypto reserves across many countries.
Many of the superpowers have been pushing back on crypto to retain their control, never truly thinking about the lost of control in conflicts we thought would never happen.
People are waking up to the fact we had the most peaceful period ever after WW2 and we are getting back to the historical norm, the dark reality of war and power.
The list expands:
- Cheaper transactions
- Faster transactions
- Faster settlement
- Unhackable/safer
- AI agents
- Non inflationary
- Tokenization
- Global currency
And they say Crypto is expensive.
Current market cap of $ETH $260B, $BTC $1.3T
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@KynaKosling @DanZanger “I didn’t start making money until I started ignoring cheap stocks.”
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My first @DanZanger notes from 2023.
The direction was right:
• Only trade when the market is hot
• Follow the institutions
• Focus on the leaders
• Passion is essential
But lacking the nuance of my later notes. (We all start somewhere!) With time, more and more pieces ‘click’.
Might need to do this again with my 2026 lens…
Until then, the 2023 notes still offer value:
***
Dan Zanger on Finding the Biggest Movers
A 2005 interview tells us that nothing much changes
🔗 tinyurl.com/4xtx62a7
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@TheOneLanceB I think WTI still trading May vs Brent July? When looking at current front month.
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I can’t emphasize enough the insanity going on rn in front mont WTI.
Especially vs Brent or June WTI.
Blow-up level moves for anyone trading spreads. You won’t necessarily notice this in equity world, but the financial futures market is legit fat-tailing.
Lance Breitstein 🇺🇸🌎@TheOneLanceB
Front-month WTI going absolutely nuts right now vs Brent 🤯🤯🤯
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@NoLimitGains The funny part is being completely wrong on your endless doom posting.
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@TedHZhang @ZaStocks Keep an eye on the total curve. USO 100 is front month only. Back below 80 in Aug.
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NASDAQ up almost 2% on headlines that Iran won’t accept a ceasefire or open the Strait is pretty notable.
Za@ZaStocks
NASDAQ up 2% on headlines that China says the U.S. is lying and they haven’t even spoken yet is pretty notable.
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⚡️A full-scale ground invasion of Iran would be a nightmare.
That is real.
The country is too big.
The terrain is too punishing.
The population is too large.
The nationalism would be too strong.
The regime may be hated by many Iranians, but foreign boots on Persian soil would fuse a lot of that society against the invader fast.
Any army dumb enough to try to fully occupy Iran would be volunteering to inherit a giant burning machine.
So the main point is true.
History, geography, scale, and political reality all scream the same answer: do not try to conquer Iran.
Where this is overplayed is in the move from “a full invasion is insane” to implying that any serious ground operation is therefore absurd. That leap is too broad.
A giant occupation and a narrow mission are not the same thing.
Holding Tehran is one thing.
Touching one island, one nuclear node, one corridor, one temporary objective is something else entirely.
That distinction matters.
So the real picture is narrower and meaner:
No smart actor wants to own Iran.
A smart actor may still want to slash pieces off its leverage.
That can mean air destruction, proxy dismantlement, economic strangulation, maritime reopening, nuclear denial, elite decapitation, narrow raids, island pressure, or selective seizures.
That is a completely different war than “conquer Iran.”
My deepest read is this:
Nobody serious wants Baghdad 2.0 on Persian steroids.
What serious planners want is a smaller objective set: break the regime’s ability to threaten, force it into a smaller future, and stop short of inheriting the whole corpse.
That is the actual game.
So bottom line:
Invading Iran to occupy it would be one of the dumbest military decisions imaginable.
Breaking Iran’s leverage without occupying it is a completely different matter.
That second path is the one that has been taking shape the whole time.
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
🇮🇷🇺🇸 The last time anyone conquered Iran was 651 AD Yes, that long ago. The Islamic Caliphate took Persia nearly 1,400 years ago and nobody has managed it since. The Mongols tried. The British tried. Saddam tried for eight years and lost a million soldiers trying to take a few border towns. Iran is three times the size of Iraq, with 93 million people and mountain terrain that swallows armies. The U.S. needed 150,000 troops to invade Iraq, a country a fraction of the size, and still couldn't hold it. History has a very clear opinion on ground invasions of Iran. Everyone who tried regretted it. But I'm sure coalition planners knew all this before drawing up one of the most geopolitically complicated military operations in modern history. Right?...
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Don't know what would happen immediately. This is my view for months and years to come.
It would no longer be a unipolar world headed by US.
The world would be multipolar predominantly lead by USA, Russia, China and India.
NATO may not survive in the current form. US is shocked that European countries are not allowing it's war planes over their air space and not allowing to use their bases.
European countries want to develop their own security and defence.
Saudi King, a strong ally of USA was hugely humiliated by Trump last week. Gulf countries are realising that the huge money they keep giving every year to US for their security is of no use.
Iran would be a significant beneficiary of this conflict. Gulf countries would forge a working relationship with Iran where Iran might get paid for taking responsibility of Gulf's security.
US is a big loser. Trump would claim victory just for face saving. The reality is Strait of Hormuz was not under Iran's control till last month. Now Hormuz and red sea through Houthis are controlled by Iran. Iran would benefit from international trade and would use that money to rebuild the country.
US is not able to get the Uranium held by Iran. Iran may now seriously think of developing nuclear weapon. If it does, entire West Asia and gulf region would be under Iran's influence.
After two decades of trying to finish Taliban, US left Afghanistan without any success. Taliban got replaced by Taliban. Regime could not be changed by US.
In Iran, Ali Khamenei got replaced by Mojtaba Khamenei. Here too no regime change. Khamenei got replaced by Khamenei. The current leaders are more hardliners than the ones killed by US.
Major military powers of China, Russia and India are now aware of the weakness and limitations of US defence. These three are on par with US and better than it certain aspects.
Taiwan would have realised America would be of no use if China decides to capture it. Taiwan would try to reach some kind of understanding with China.
Israel is another big loser. They used to enjoy empathy across the globe. Over the years, Israel's overconsuming hatred have alienated their sympathisers. Even American public are now against Israel.
Instead of ending the war now, if US and Israel try ground invasion of Iran, they would suffer immense casualities. The war may prolong but the outcome would be much more bad for US and Israel.
US and Israel now stands completely isolated. From tariff tantrums to abusing world leaders including allies and trying to claim Canada as 51 st state, trying to capture Greenland from European allies, threatening Norway for Nobel prize, and now a failed war with Iran, the world including USA's long term allies neither fear nor respect America anymore.
America would continue to be a powerful country. But it would no longer be able to control the world or have the same influence it had since world war two.
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@NoLimitGains So are you going to stay bearish when we make new all time highs or pretend like you called the bottom.
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@doomerzoomer So you can post another pointless zoomed in chart again and get paid for it.
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@planert41 It’s common. They may even flip back and forth. Also - kids change and can develop different personalities pretty quick too.
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Iran is completely defenseless and getting massacred daily. A few raids here and there to take the uranium and/or officials is probably the extent. Otherwise a big force only to secure the strait which Trump said we can just leave. You can get your ass the raids would be well covered and preceded by insane bombing. Zero interest in “taking” Iran.
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@PeteHegseth @KidRock @USArmy This is why people are disgusted. My tax dollars shouldn't enable this shit.
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Thank you @KidRock.
@USArmy pilots suspension LIFTED.
No punishment. No investigation.
Carry on, patriots. 🇺🇸
KidRock@KidRock
This is a level of respect that shit for brains Governor of California will never know. God Bless America and all those who have made the ultimate sacrifice to defend her. 🇺🇸 🙏
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And... this is why I don't like Jane Street owning the same stocks I do like $AAOI.
They trade volatility, especially with retail favorite names and trigger stop losses/panic.
If you know what you own though:
$6.69B for a US company that makes the entire transceiver supply chain:
From Laser -> Design -> Assembly.
With likely $MSFT, $AMZN, $ORCL buying anything they can make, is a steal for me personally.
With high beta stocks, it's really important to build conviction and manage sizing correctly before entering a trade.
Otherwise you'll end up capitulating the bottom and buying the top over and over.
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@TheShortBear Checkmark on mean reversion trade. Smart guys starting to freak out:)
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More and more country are getting involved.
I don’t want to spread panic but we went from a quick weekend operation to a potentially multi month to year conflict dragging half of Eurasia into it.
This is super dangerous, this is how major wars start…. All because of stupid mistakes that were compounded, through tripling down hoping the other side would fold.
This is bigger than Iraq, Afghanistan and alike by a factor of 10x, and that was an immense fiasco
Megatron@Megatron_ron
BREAKING: 🇹🇷🇮🇷🇺🇸 Erdogan threatens Turkey will join war on Iran's side Turkey has issued a serious warning to the United States, Iraq and Kurdish forces that it will take direct military action if Kurdish organizations are involved in operations against Iran, the information portal "Türkiye" reports. According to information obtained by Ankara, with the beginning of the attacks on Iran, the Israeli intelligence service Mossad tried to negotiate with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and its Iranian wing PYAK. The aim was to use these groups, which Turkey considers terrorist, as ground "intermediary forces" in the fighting. During a telephone conversation with US President Donald Trump, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan unequivocally opposed such a scenario. He recalled that Turkey's position on the territorial integrity of Iran is crystal clear and warned that Ankara will intervene militarily "regardless of the ongoing processes, just like it did in Syria". “We will not listen to any stories about active processes. We will attack. "You saw what happened in Syria, we will do the same here. Necessary measures will be taken at the slightest attempt to spread the war fire in the region”, Erdogan said.
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@junelovestmh @MaxxingDelusion Yeah if I didn’t have 4 kids I’d have that car too lol
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@MaxxingDelusion Damn dude you're rich. No wife and kids right? Your outfit screams dad, but your lifestyle screams single.
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Agree - I see that as a potentially scenario in my head too.
Would cover shorts into it and start tracking relative strength and a potential mean reversion long
Walks&WallStreet@WalksWallstreet
🚨🚨 Hot Take🚨🚨 To me, it seems that they are slowly preparing the public for boots on the ground in Iran 🇮🇷 At first, it was a 24 hour war, then two weeks, then four weeks and now it’s the following; Considering sending another 10,000 ground troops to the Middle East, even as Trump weighs peace talks with Tehran, The Wall Street Journal has reported. That would add to roughly 5,000 Marines and 2,000 paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division already ordered to the region. The additional troops would likely include infantry, armored vehicles and logistics support. The market is clearly pricing this in with the S&P 500 down 9% from its record high. I suspect we will at some point have boots on the ground in Iran, when that happens the market will freak out, the vix to blow off and the public to be outraged. The market will also likely bottom on the news of a full scale ground invasion of Iran 🇮🇷 We need something to send the VIX to pandemic levels, a full scale ground invasion will do just that. Keeping all options open, contingency planning here. 6150 on SPX gets us back to Feb 2025 high before the tariff crash, or 12% off the high. A normal, nothing correction.
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