0xAms

@thiccyth0t Fujairah is outside the strait so that would be a detour. Not sure that this makes sense geographically. The Strait of Hormuz sits between Iran to the north and Oman’s Musandam exclave to the south, and the main shipping lanes run mostly in Omani territorial waters, not Emirati waters.

my prediction as a geopolitical tourist is that trump gets bored with iran and withdraws. he implements a reciprocal toll that ships have to stop by in uae that goes to gcc for reparations as long as iran has their toll up. then he pretends like this whole thing never happened

@exitpumpBTC No one wanna buy before a ground invasion

$BTC Spot orderbooks on the ask side are literally empty. If a big buyer steps in, price can easily pump and squeeze all the shorts. Not saying it will pump, even if it did, likely retraces back down. Bid side is thick though.

Bro had everything correct except his btc position

@fkronawitter1 @WeakConqueror So all that matters is sizing then

@WeakConqueror Thank you for this, much appreciated. Over time, my hit rate is ~55% with ~2 up 1 down ratio. Recent months somewhat higher but may just be market regime

Sandisk now -12%. Got a lot of push back for this call Important to keep in mind that stocks are only priced in part on fundamentals. Many other considerations matter (technicals, positioning etc) This group was simply v vulnerable after a big run x.com/fkronawitter1/…

the level of this industry is terrible...it's a shame...

@malekanoms Dont waste your time quoting this dude just look at ENA - it’s down 95%…how can anyone hire him !

People get mad at me when I suggest assuming every form of adoption on every chain (beyond Bitcoin & Ethereum) is just a form of pay to play. Meanwhile the approach gets congratulated and celebrated.

@Citrini7 @jevgenijs @sytaylor

I would like a crypto person to DM me and explain how Tempo/MPP works (or is intended to work) for agentic stablecoin transactions.

@lazyvillager1 Was gonna send a « stream? »

is there demand for a stream

@Pickle_cRypto Lol …I’m screaming

Ethereum / EVM / solidity is not secure, never will be This adds to idea that Solana / SVM / rust will be the chosen (public open) chain for finance/RWAs on a long enough timeline

*TRUMP'S TEAM BEGAN TALKING ON HOW PEACE TALKS WOULD LOOK: AXIOS *ANY DEAL TO END WAR WOULD INCLUDE REOPENING HORMUZ: AXIOS *US WOULD WANT IRAN TO HAVE NO MISSILE PROGRAM FOR 5 YRS: AXIOS *IRANIAN DEMANDS INCLUDE CEASEFIRE, NO WAR RESUMPTION: AXIOS

#Iran War Update No. 21 (focus on Iranian strategic narrative): 🔹 Iran continues targeting U.S. bases in the region. The aim appears to be to prevent the restoration of radar and early warning systems that support Israel’s air defense, many of which were damaged by Iran in the first few days of the war. This suggests a sustained effort by Iran to preserve its ability to strike Israeli territory more effectively. 🔹 Iraq is becoming more volatile. According to Iranian sources, recent assassinations of key militia figures, reported failed attempts to target Kataib Hezbollah leadership, and strikes in Baghdad and al-Qaim indicate a shift toward reshaping the Iraqi political and military landscape, even as the war with Iran itself continues. 🔹 Signs of temporary de-escalation in Iraq are being met with skepticism. Kataib Hezbollah announced a five-day pause in attacks on the U.S. embassy, conditional on halting strikes and limiting intelligence activity. However, this pause appears fragile and reversible. 🔹 Iranian assessments suggest Israel is pushing to expand the war into Iraq more deliberately, viewing pressure on Shia armed groups as a more effective way to weaken Iran’s regional position. At the same time, there is apparent dissatisfaction that larger Iraqi Shia factions are still unwilling to join the conflict. 🔹 Meanwhile, NATO personnel have been withdrawn from Iraq, reflecting growing concern that the country could become a major secondary theater of the war. 🔹 U.S. and Israeli strikes are increasingly targeting internal security infrastructure inside Iran. Satellite imagery shows severe damage to a key logistical headquarters of the Iranian police in Tehran. This is seen as further evidence that Israel is focused on undermining the state’s capacity to maintain internal control. 🔹 Iran is signaling new red lines in the Persian Gulf. The Iranian armed forces have warned that any attack on Iranian islands would trigger direct strikes on UAE territory – not just U.S. interests there. This could include ports and potentially major cities. 🔹 At the same time, the Iranian armed forces have issued evacuation warnings for Ras al-Khaimah, suggesting that further escalation with Gulf countries may be imminent. 🔹 There are also growing indications that some Gulf states may be moving closer to involvement in the war. A Middle East Eye report suggests expanded U.S. access to bases in Saudi Arabia and increased UAE readiness for a prolonged conflict. 🔹 U.S. military activity continues to intensify, combining sustained heavy bomber strikes – particularly against southern coastal and naval-linked targets – with a growing amphibious buildup. Thousands of Marines from expeditionary units aboard ships like the USS Boxer are being deployed to the region, adding to an already large force presence and creating a variety of options ranging from offshore strikes to potential limited ground operations. 🔹 Iran’s missile and launch strategy continues to adapt. Iranian debates indicate the use of mobile, tunnel-based launch systems that allow rapid firing and relocation, making detection and preemption significantly more difficult. 🔹 Cluster munitions are now a major feature of Iranian strikes on Israel, aimed at overwhelming air defenses rather than maximizing precision damage. 🔹 Iran struck Israeli energy infrastructure the day before, including the Haifa refinery, while continuing its broader strategy of sustained, lower-volume missile launches to maintain constant pressure on the Israeli public. 🔹 Syria is emerging as a potential variable. While the Syrian president signals neutrality, Iranian and Hezbollah concerns are growing that Syria could come under pressure to act against Hezbollah from the east. 🔹 China’s stance is becoming more explicitly aligned with Iran at the political level. Beijing has condemned U.S. and Israeli strikes as illegal, affirmed support for Iran’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and reiterated opposition to sanctions. While still calling for de-escalation and avoiding any direct military role, its framing of the conflict increasingly places responsibility on Washington and Tel Aviv, signaling a clear – if still cautious – tilt toward Iran. 🔹 Global economic consequences are deepening. Oil supply disruptions, cuts of roughly 10 million barrels per day, and projections of prices potentially reaching $180 per barrel in a month underscore the scale of the shock. 🔹 The conflict is beginning to affect global supply chains, with disruptions already emerging in sectors such as aluminum, reflecting how instability in the Gulf is feeding into broader industrial and commodity markets. 🔹 Ukraine is becoming increasingly entangled in the conflict. Ukrainian drone interception units are now reportedly deployed in multiple Middle Eastern countries to counter Iranian systems. At the same time, reports of a possible Russia-U.S. quid pro quo – linking Moscow’s support for Iran to Western backing for Ukraine – though denied by Moscow, highlight how the two wars are becoming politically and strategically interconnected. 🔹 Inside Iran, leadership signaling remains defiant but cautious. Mojtaba Khamenei’s written Nowruz message – rather than a public appearance – has reinforced uncertainty about his condition. However, the message emphasized resilience and national unity. 🔹 At the same time, mistrust toward any ceasefire is deepening. Iranian assessments increasingly view potential short-term pauses as tactical moves by the U.S. and Israel to regroup for further escalation, especially one involving the deployment of ground forces. 🔹 Overall, what is taking shape is a multi-layered and diverse battlespace. Rather than a single escalatory ladder, different arenas – Iraq, the Persian Gulf, Ukraine, and potentially Syria – are evolving at different speeds and according to different logics, with local actors, infrastructure vulnerabilities, and alliance calculations increasingly driving events as much as decisions in Tehran, Washington, or Tel Aviv.

@safetyth1rd @grok how much such an attack would cost?

It sounds far fetched today But if Ethereum keeps on onboarding RWAs and institutions There may come a day when its censorship resistance or network itself comes under attack. It needs to be able to resist this

@glcarlstrom @Kathleen_Tyson_ How to use WSJ to put pressure on ending the war..

"Saudi light crude is already being sold to Asian buyers via its Red Sea port for around $125 a barrel. As extra oil in storage is used up, physical shortages will bite more deeply next week, causing prices to close in on $138 to $140. By the second week of April, with no easing of the supply disruptions and the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed, the Saudi officials said they expected prices could hit $150 before stepping up to $165 and $180 in the weeks ahead." "The market isn't acting like this is an end-of-March thing any more." wsj.com/finance/commod…

@52kskew @crypto_condom This is a standard call they made the same in 2022..nothing burger

It begins

#Iran War Update No. 20 (focus on Iranian strategic narrative): 🔹The Strait of Hormuz is being increasingly framed in Tehran as a tool of Iranian leverage rather than a temporary wartime tactic. Iranian officials are openly discussing a post-war regulatory regime, including transit fees and IRGC-controlled routing. At the same time, there are reports that a “safe corridor” system is already being implemented for selected countries through Iran’s territorial waters. 🔹Meanwhile, international efforts to counter this are taking shape. Six U.S. allies U.S. allies – the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the Netherlands – have signaled readiness to support maritime security operations in the strait, pointing toward a gradual internationalization of the waterway’s security. However, the exact form of their involvement remains unclear. 🔹Iran’s approach to escalation remains centered on vertical escalation rather than horizontal (expanding target types/categories). When Israel struck South Pars, Iran responded by targeting major energy infrastructure across the Persian Gulf. Continued strikes on U.S. bases follow the same pattern, i.e., response to attacks on Iranian military infrastructure. The focus so far has been on escalating within existing categories of targets, increasing scale and impact, rather than opening entirely new domains. 🔹This logic was reinforced by Iran’s strike on the Haifa refinery despite U.S. messaging against further energy targeting, underlining Tehran’s emphasis on enforcing its own red lines rather than accepting those imposed by the adversaries. 🔹According to Iranian expert commentaries, Iran’s current approach rests on three key elements: unpredictability, a “madman strategy,” and making threats to the enemy more credible; the latter reflected in shortened gap between warning and action, aimed at “correcting past misperceptions” caused by restraint. 🔹Energy infrastructure remains at the center of the conflict. Damage to Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG facility has caused significant disruptions to global gas markets, with parts of the complex potentially requiring years to fully recover. 🔹At the same time, Iran continues to sustain its own exports. Oil shipments from Kharg Island remain ongoing at roughly 1.1 to 1.5 million barrels per day, while increased storage at Jask suggests preparation for prolonged disruption scenarios. 🔹The war is also driving new economic dynamics. Discussions in Washington about waivers for up to 140 million barrels of Iranian oil indicate mounting pressure to stabilize global energy markets, but Tehran signals it will continue prioritizing China as its main costumer. 🔹Militarily, the United States maintains that operations are progressing, with over 7,000 targets reportedly struck. However, Iranian assessments suggest U.S. operations are adapting under pressure, including greater reliance on stand-off strikes, regional bases, and long-range bomber missions from Europe. 🔹Israeli strikes continue to target Iran’s military-industrial base, including electronic industries in Shiraz, reflecting an ongoing effort to degrade Iran’s industrial ecosystem. 🔹At the same time, there are indications of Iranian tactical adaptation. Reports of an F-35 being hit, possibly through Surface-to-Air Missile ambush (SAMbush), have fueled discussion about improved survivability and evolving Iranian air defense tactics. 🔹Regionally, attacks on U.S. positions persist. Bases in Erbil and Bahrain have reportedly been targeted again by Iran and its Iraqi allies. 🔹Unconfirmed reports of rocket fire from Syrian territory toward the Golan Heights raise the possibility of another active front, although the scale and intent remain unclear. 🔹Tensions between Iran and the UAE have escalated sharply. Diplomatic relations are deteriorating, with visa suspensions, closures of Iranian institutions, and reports of embassy shutdowns signaling a significant breakdown in ties. 🔹Internal security pressures inside Iran remain high. Authorities continue arrests linked to “espionage” and insurgent activity, particularly in southeastern regions, reflecting ongoing concerns about internal destabilization alongside the ongoing war. 🔹Diplomatically, divisions within GCC persist. Oman continues to push for de-escalation, Qatar maintains a more balanced stance, while Saudi Arabia and especially the UAE are adopting increasingly confrontational positions toward Iran. 🔹China has maintained a cautious posture, emphasizing stability and energy security while avoiding alignment with either side. Beijing has so far refrained from calling directly on Iran to halt its attacks and instead, continues calling on all parties to end hostilities. 🔹Inside Iran, discussions about nuclear doctrine are re-emerging, including limited calls for weaponization or withdrawal from the NPT, although these remain on the margins for now. 🔹Overall, the war is increasingly being shaped by competing efforts to define the rules of escalation, with Iran attempting to formalize new realities on the ground – especially at the strait – while external responses remain fragmented and uncertain despite growing concern over maritime security.

The new gen of trenchers will NEVER know what it felt like to watch a transaction fail on Uniswap in 2021. You spot a coin at 200K mcap, You KNOW this is going to 10M minimum, You hit swap, the little circle starts spinning, and spinning.. and spinning.. Your whole body is shaking, you can't breathe, you're refreshing etherscan every 2 seconds like a fking gambler.. Then BOOM -> red text. TRANSACTION FAILED. Gas too low and you paid $200 in fees(!!) You scramble to resubmit, hands trembling, cranking gas to $600 for a $40 buy because you're DESPERATE, Fails AGAIN. By the time it finally goes through on the fourth attempt you've spent $1200 in gas fees and bought the exact top of a coin that's already retracing. These axiom kids sniping coins in 0.2 seconds don't know SH!T about real suffering. We were forged in the fires of failed Uniswap transactions and they have the audacity to call themselves "OG." Funny stuff

@exitpumpBTC Are u still short ? Or did u flip ?

$BTC Perfect bounce from volume POC and price is heading back to VAH at 71k, retest will be crucial, should reject.

This is one of the most important comments about what’s happening - a lot of people are missing the global picture here and don’t get the nuance and strategic implications shared here

@exitpumpBTC let us know when you long again

Why would I larp? I shared the setup in the Discord in front of 1000+ members. I took the trade on 2 accounts, I never larped here unlike some clowns.

@fkronawitter1 I think if I’m not mistaken that this is some « old news » something that was suggested before yesterday’s escalation - I don’t know if that should be still considered as a potentiel solution

Pelase explain to me like I am 6 years old how that is going to work, when Iran can throw a drone against a Saudi Red Sea refinery 1500km away At the same time, what else is the solution? x.com/MOSSADil/statu…