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PROPHET
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PROPHET
@prophet_notes
#1 Paid Prediction Market Newsletter | Polymarket | Geopolitics | Economy | If you follow the herd you are sure to get slaughtered
Присоединился Aralık 2023
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@0xtarzan1999 My deeper thoughts are in the article, but long story short is no ceasefire in the short term.
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@prophet_notes What do you think of ceasefire scenario?
In my observation, I don't see it anytime soon. Some NATO members are also joining to free strait of Harmoz.
Please share your views.
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@tleilax___ Iran has plenty of escalation options that can impose irreversible and unbearable costs on the global economy...
Scary thought, but from their point of view some of these options can be a tit for tat in case of Kharg invasion / blockade.
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@prophet_notes The war will escalate and we will definitely see this
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To help you visualize the severity of the coming crisis.
Michael Hart@nig_michael
A fertiliser miss for the ministers reference.
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Week 3 and it’s already starting.
Khaosod English@KhaosodEnglish
Thailand’s retail sector has reported fresh price increases in essential goods, with palm oil and bottled drinking water both rising due to higher production and energy costs, according to the Thai Wholesale and Retail Trade Association. Somchai Parnrattanacharoen, honorary adviser to the association, said wholesale prices of palm oil have increased by 7–8 baht per one-litre bottle, from 41 baht to 48–49 baht. Retail prices have subsequently risen to around 50–51 baht per bottle. Producers attributed the increase to a government policy raising the biodiesel blend from B5 to B7, effective March 14, which has driven up demand for palm oil amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Meanwhile, bottled drinking water has also seen a wholesale price increase of 5 baht per pack for standard 500ml bottles, rising from 20 baht to 25 baht. Manufacturers cited higher plastic resin costs, linked to global oil prices, as well as increased transport expenses due to higher diesel prices. The report added that some low-cost snack products, particularly those previously sold at 5 baht per bag, are being discontinued as rising packaging costs have made production economically unviable. #Thailand #วิกฤตน้ำมัน
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It will be fun to watch the discussion about how the IDF managed to conquer and "control" a Hezbollah Stronghold with 28k inhabitants with 999 soldiers:
polymarket.com/event/will-isr…
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@UnintendedCons5 Trump is looking for an off-ramp since the strikes have started. Doesn't change the fact that currently the only realistic one is taking the L and moving on...
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PROPHET ретвитнул
@InternLon @TheMindScourge East west pipelines as well as Red Sea infrastructure is well within reach of Iranian missiles. Also nord stream 2 showed how easy it is to render such an investment null…
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@prophet_notes @TheMindScourge To a degree, but the main gulf countries are already investing in bypass capacity. If Iran can only block 1m barrels per day, it’s not much of a deterrent.
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Hormuz is a weapon that can only be fired once
No one should expect a quick resolution to the current crisis, but across the next decade, even the next 3-5 years, the choke point of Hormuz will be massively substituted for
The Gulf Arab states are all very rich, with high per capita GDP - the best single measure of relative state capacity - easy access to global markets, especially financial, and have the favorable backing of the US
Everyone has known about the Hormuz vulnerability for decades. The Iranians have continually hinted around closing it, but never did. Now they have, but Hormuz is a gun that cannot be reloaded.
Deterrents work only up to the point of use. Once used, they have failed. The purpose of a deterrent is to *not* be used
Many analysts have made this basic mistake. They think that Iran is now in a position of strength, having exercised its Hormuz option. But the opposite is true. A state is weakest after it has used its deterrent. The cost of that deterrence is now priced in. The worst having been done, the targets of the deterrent are now free to make other arrangements. Before, they were reluctant to do so because of the switching costs. Now, they have no choice; they will not allow themselves to be controlled in this way again
Hormuz may never reopen. But the importance of this is a depreciating asset.
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@prophet_notes Or they don't want to see the reality. Psudo optimism 🤔
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I get so lost and have no idea what to believe anymore. Everyone says irans launches are down every day and they’re weaker and weaker but this guy is in Israel saying otherwise. What’s the real story?
Shaiel Ben-Ephraim@academic_la
Israel has been pummeled all night. Based on my counts of alerts and reports of landings from open sources the number increased tonight, though there are no reports of casualties. My Whatsapp groups are filled with people having breakdowns after not sleeping for two weeks. In Jerusalem 4 alerts were heard in a 90 minute span. Iran has been able to increase the number of launches daily. Everyone seems angry at the IDF and Netanyahu for lying about the destruction of Iranian capabilities.
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@TonyNashNerd Don’t bring your family into the conversation, I’m talking about you cheering for senseless invasion of Kharg Island.
Read on Iranian oil infrastructure.
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Well. My family landed here in 1620. Fought in the Revolution. Fought for the Union in the Civil War. Etc. We've seen our share of sacrifice. It's never fun and saying that someone loves to see their countrymen die is just weird. Good thing you have an anonymous handle to hide behind.
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Oof. Angry Europeans must hate this.
First Squawk@FirstSquawk
US TREASURY SECRETARY BESSENT: WE'LL SEE IF KHARG ISLAND EVENTUALLY BECOMES A US ASSET
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PROPHET ретвитнул
New Space, same old topic 🤷♂️🥲
@prophet_notes @JSchwarz91 and I will talk about:
👉(De)escalation coming soon? The how, why & when and what markets to watch
👉Identifying winners & losers from the war
👉What’s going on in 🇷🇺 and 🇻🇪?
See you tomorrow 👋
twitter.com/i/spaces/1PKqr…
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PROPHET ретвитнул
The administration now faces a stark choice—one it can no longer avoid.
A. Use force to reopen the strait, knowing full well that any strike on Iran’s energy infrastructure will trigger retaliation. This is not a limited operation. It’s escalation—potentially rapid, and potentially uncontrollable. There are no half-measures here: if Washington wants the strait open, it will have to fight for it.
B. Accept reality, cut losses, and pursue a deal with Tehran over the terms of access. Politically unpalatable? Absolutely. But when global oil flows and the stability of Asian markets are at stake, strategic necessity tends to override rhetoric.
What last night made unmistakably clear is this: there is no clean solution. No surgical fix. No easy win.
The longer the administration pretends otherwise, the higher the cost will be
#IranWar
Javier Blas@JavierBlas
The US and its allies are making a concerted effort to de-escalate the oil/gas war, having witnessed that Iran was willing -- and able -- to climb the escalation ladder very quickly. To be seen whether Tehran plays ball. Whatever the case, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
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