45WallSt

@RickCarusoLA Everything you do has such soul to it. I love being at your properties.

Every one of my properties has a tribute to my wife and kids. Can you find them all? There’s nothing more important than celebrating and honoring family.

@michelletandler Token goy here visiting and would love to go!

Does anybody in NYC need a place to go for Passover seder tonight? I have an extra ticket to a special one. DM me.

@mspringut Are you even rich if you don’t have an “auxiliary door”?

Technically not a side door but a back door. Thus my dissertation title is broadening to Auxiliary Doors of New York.

@BrandonStraka Chuckle.

Lib: "Trump acts like a king ." Interviewer: "Name 1 thing that makes you think that he acts like a king." Lib: "There are a million of them." Interviewer: "Just name 1 or 2" Lib: "Uhh.. I can't think of none right now."

@FarroYossi @dougleone GOAT. Cool.

Doug Leone (@dougleone) is a True Legend! Had the honor of meeting him in January 2023.

@ericstromberg Cool.

Terrain New York arriving soon

@aphysicist Nice Richters. davidzwirner.com/news/2025/gerh…

have you not seen this building, that also is probably a spaceship

@MarceloLima Eric Kandel writes about how many of the great artists had some kind of injury or blindness or some limiting factor that brought out some kind of super power. amazon.com/Age-Insight-Un…

Interesting that Buffett says his eyesight is bad, so he can't read. Yet he's still making investment decisions at Berkshire. Dude's like Beethoven.

@MarceloLima It's possible some of his best is yet to come.

youtube.com/watch?v=yKlhLD… @Keith_Wasserman 👀👆

@harleyf Wisdom

High cringe tolerance now. Low regret later.

@mspringut Some do. ramsa.com/projects/proje…

It’s not that they did this “to demoralize us.” It’s that they (the city’s leaders and planners) have no taste and don’t give a shit.

@litcapital @GreenMonsterah Was there for a moment and it was mostly angry overweight lesbians clanging cowbells.

Miami this weekend: Miami Open, MMW parties, Ultra, boat outings NYC this weekend: No Kings parade Lmaooooo

After 10 years $OXY shareholders end up with a -4% price return and a +2.8% total return CAGR during the outgoing CEO's tenure. The company sold OxyChem at the bottom of the cycle, and overpaid for both Anadarko and CrownRock (which generated a reported 78x return for the seller). Berkshire $BRK.B probably would have been better off overall with any other oil major investment - but still comes out ahead with OxyChem (without the Oxy retained legacy environmental liabilites of ~$2 billion), its 8% preferred dividends and a nominal return on its equity. It's beyond time for $CVX CEO Mike Wirth to finally take-over Anadarko - now $OXY and form Chevr-oxy. "Berkshire chairman Warren Buffett has praised Hollub as a manager but Berkshire's equity investment in the company, some 265 million shares, a 27% stake, has been an underperformer for Berkshire since it began buying the stock in 2022. Berkshire's cost is around $53 a share, Barron's estimates. Berkshire would have done better in nearly any other major energy stock since then."

@Ricburton Poppies are poppin!

🌼

@yacineMTB @jimmycarr 👀☝️

there's fuck you money, but then there is fuck you skills. you can be so skilled that you don't actually have to care about what people think. you'll be fine no matter what

@DrewCohenMoney Amen

$BKNG on SBC: "We believe stock-based compensation is a real operating cost. And as a result, we consistently reflect it in all of our profit metrics, and we strongly believe this should be an industry standard in reporting."

@eladgil Cool.

Stripe shareholder annual box Personally was hoping for some more stock but instead got some gifts and a nice handwritten note from some guy named “John”

@Keith_Wasserman Truth.

Everyone is waiting for a “2009 moment” in multifamily. That’s exactly why this is the opportunity. We’ve already had a crash—just without the headlines. • Multifamily values: down ~15–30%+ from peak • Cap rates: up ~150–300 bps • Transactions: still ~60–70% below 2021 levels But here’s the part most people are missing: This cycle isn’t going to look like 2009. There won’t be a single moment where everything is “on sale.” Instead, it’s happening slowly… and selectively… right now. ⸻ The real driver isn’t pricing. It’s the debt. • ~$1–1.5 trillion of CRE loans maturing between 2025–2027 • Huge share = floating rate bridge debt • Deals underwritten at 3–4% now facing 6.5–8%+ debt costs A lot of these assets: •Don’t refinance •Don’t cash flow •Don’t have fresh equity That leads to one outcome: forced decisions. Not panic selling— …but recapitalizations, note sales, and quiet discounts. ⸻ At the exact same time, supply is about to disappear. • Multifamily starts are down ~40–60% from peak • Construction financing is extremely constrained • New deliveries peak in 2024–2025… then fall sharply This is the setup most people miss: You buy when supply is peaking… → You own when supply collapses. That’s when rent growth comes back. ⸻ And replacement cost is completely disconnected from reality. • Construction costs still ~30–50% above 2020 levels • Many deals today trade below replacement cost Meaning: You’re buying assets cheaper than it would cost to build them— in a market where almost no one can build new supply. ⸻ Meanwhile… capital is frozen. Large institutions: •Dealing with redemptions •Overallocated to real estate •Waiting for “clarity” Which means: Less competition. More structure. Better entry points. But that window doesn’t stay open. When capital comes back—it comes back all at once. ⸻ So what actually works in this market? Not chasing broken real estate. The real trade is: → Buy good assets with broken capital stacks → Provide solutions (equity, preferred equity, or structured liquidity) → Lock in low basis → Ride NOI growth + cap rate compression You don’t need heroics from here to generate strong returns. You need: •Discipline •Structure •And the willingness to move before it feels obvious ⸻ We’re actively looking for: •Multifamily deals with refinancing pressure or GP/LP fatigue •Situations where capital—not real estate—is the problem •JV equity and family office partners who want to lean in during this window If you’re thinking about deploying capital into this cycle, this is one of the few moments where timing + structure can do most of the work. It won’t feel like 2009. That’s exactly why it’s interesting.