
Agustin Lin
2K posts











🦔HSBC built a model to figure out if OpenAI can actually pay for all the compute it's contracted. The answer is no. OpenAI has committed to $250 billion in cloud compute from Microsoft and $38 billion from Amazon, bringing contracted compute to 36 gigawatts. Based on total deal value of up to $1.8 trillion, HSBC estimates OpenAI is heading for data center rental bills of about $620 billion a year, though only a third of that capacity comes online by 2030. The Math HSBC projects OpenAI's cumulative rental costs at $792 billion through 2030, rising to $1.4 trillion by 2033. Against that, they estimate cumulative free cash flow of $282 billion, plus $26 billion from Nvidia's cash injections and AMD share sales, $24 billion in undrawn debt facilities, and $17.5 billion in current liquidity. Add it up and there's a $207 billion funding hole, plus another $10 billion buffer HSBC thinks they'd need for safety. My Take This is the AI bubble in one company. HSBC assumes OpenAI reaches 3 billion users by 2030, which is 44% of the world's adult population outside China. They assume 10% become paying customers, up from 5% now. They assume OpenAI captures 2% of digital advertising. They assume enterprise AI generates $386 billion annually. Even with all those assumptions going right, OpenAI still can't pay its bills. The best case scenario HSBC can model still leaves a $207 billion hole. Their suggested solution is that OpenAI might need to "walk away from data center commitments" and hope the big players show "flexibility" because "less capacity would always be better than a liquidity crisis." That's a polite way of saying the business model doesn't work and everyone involved might need to pretend the contracts don't exist. This is the company anchoring a $500 billion Stargate project and driving hundreds of billions in infrastructure spending across the industry. Hedgie🤗

"Un pibe gastó $1.020.000 para invitarme a comer caviar en la segunda cita. Todavía no fui a su casa, quiero esperar un poco más": la confesión de una tiktoker.




Me compré unos calls. Que la historia me juzgue.

















