Alex Alduncin รีทวีตแล้ว
Alex Alduncin
167 posts
Alex Alduncin
@AlexAlduncin
Elections coverage and analysis
Miami, FL เข้าร่วม Kasım 2020
858 กำลังติดตาม106 ผู้ติดตาม
Alex Alduncin รีทวีตแล้ว
Former Oregon State RB Anthony Hankerson is signing with the Dolphins, per source.
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The first and the best.
Also, full marks for "Star Wars" and not giving into Lucas revisionism.
ScreenTime@screentime
'Star Wars' was released 45 years ago today
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@_Drew_McCoy_ My recollection is that the entire theater gave it a 2 minute standing ovation followed by “we want more!” chants
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@AlexAlduncin I was in the theater with you. Did you hear me cheer? No, you did not.
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Rewatching Star Wars and just noticed something.
Luke is pretty chill when he finds out his dad wasn't "a navigator on Spice freighter" but a Jedi war hero who was the "best star pilot in the galaxy and a cunning warrior."
Sort of feels like that would be a "wait WFT?" moment.
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@_Drew_McCoy_ You didn’t cheer when Rey says she’s Rey Skywalker??
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When Han shows up and covers Luke...might be the only time in my life I've ever stood up and cheered in a movie theater.
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@ElectProject @Redistrict I’ve lost track of how many elections have defied two decades worth of AB/EV trends over the past year. Until things stabilize on that front, the already delicate act of prognosticating based on early vote data should be even more cautious
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@Redistrict It would defy two decades of elections (even under Virginia’s prior more restrictive voting laws) for NOVA to lag in the early vote and a Democrat to win statewide
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Alex Alduncin รีทวีตแล้ว
Beware bad takes like this. VA is not CA. Early vote will be a fraction of the eventual electorate and there’s no way to tell how these ballots break until 11/2. And, just b/c Dem areas don’t vote early in an off year doesn’t mean they won’t turn out.
Michael McDonald@ElectProject
What I'll be looking for in a couple of weeks is the Northern Virginia early vote turnout. If weak, then that confirms polls showing a close race. If strong, then the polls with low-turnout likely voter models may be incorrect, as was the case in California
Whittingham, NJ 🇺🇸 English
Alex Alduncin รีทวีตแล้ว
This is wild. And sadly, amid a disinfodemic & polarization I think we can expect rogue behavior by local election officials to only increase. washingtonpost.com/investigations…
Alexandria, VA 🇺🇸 English
Alex Alduncin รีทวีตแล้ว
Polling estimates of the adult vaccination rate in the U.S. have been within about 2.8 percentage points, on average, of the rate calculated by the CDC, according to our new analysis of 98 public polls conducted by 19 different polling organizations. pewrsr.ch/3CuyXU3
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Alex Alduncin รีทวีตแล้ว
I have written a new draft paper, papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…, "Identifying and Minimizing the Risk of Election Subversion and Stolen Elections in the Contemporary United States," in connection with @UCILaw's Sept. 24 conference on Election Subversion. calendar.law.uci.edu/event/fefs_ele… /1
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AB/EV effects are often overstated, but there’s evidence that mailing ballots to everyone does bump up turnout (though not necessarily in a way that consistently benefits one party)
Ryan Brune@BruneElections
More people voted in the 2021 recall election than the 2018 gubernatorial election.
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Alex Alduncin รีทวีตแล้ว
I can't overstate the need to put these off-year races in context. If Newsom survives by 25% (?) and McAuliffe were to win by 5%, they'd be spun as big Dem wins.
But that same ~5 pt swing right from the 2020 Biden/Trump margin would easily win Rs the House & Senate in 2022.
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Alex Alduncin รีทวีตแล้ว
The Georgia Department of Health has some good visualizations for vaccinated vs unvaccinated cases.
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Alex Alduncin รีทวีตแล้ว
Swing-state poll of employer vax mandates
𝗔𝗿𝗶𝘇𝗼𝗻𝗮
• Favor: 68%
• Oppose: 32
𝗚𝗲𝗼𝗿𝗴𝗶𝗮
• Favor: 63%
• Oppose: 37
𝗠𝗶𝗰𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗮𝗻
• Favor: 61%
• Oppose: 39
𝗣𝗲𝗻𝗻𝘀𝘆𝗹𝘃𝗮𝗻𝗶𝗮
• Favor: 64%
• Oppose: 36
𝗪𝗶𝘀𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗻
• Favor: 68%
• Oppose: 32
Steve Schale@steveschale
In August, we tested a concept similar to the vaccine proposal that @JoeBiden unveiled today in the five states that flipped from Trump to Biden. Given how closely divided those five states are, this is about as much consensus as you will ever find.
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Alex Alduncin รีทวีตแล้ว
Some pretty stunning findings in new @CDCgov report about #COVID and people <18. Delta variant caused cases and hospitalizations to surge among children & adolescents, as @MiamiHerald has been reporting.
🧵
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Yes, you can still get COVID after vaccination. Your odds of being hospitalized or dying of COVID, however, become extremely low- the CDC counts 2,063 vaccinated deaths and 8,971 hospitalizations out of 171 million vaccinated Americans as of last week
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