@infraa_ If we are going to export a shitload of Oil if Hormuz lasts more than a month, then who's taking delivery.
And very importantly (I haven't been on in a bit and want to see opinions) how does this impact the current account deficit?
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AngloFlare
72 posts
Brent back to $104, highest level in 9 days since that huge gap up on Sunday 3/9
This PPI read was from February, when WTI was in the low 60’s…
Imagine what March’s PPI (including the current move in oil) will be 🫠
Milo@milocredit
What a morning... Everyone expected the big news today to be the Fed's FOMC meeting in a few hours, but we already have two major headlines moving markets: -Strikes on Iranian Natural Gas fields (shared w/ Qatar, largest in the world) -Red hot PPI print (3.4% vs 2.9% exp)
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@infraa_ @BillyBoone32 That way rather than giga-taxing the gains to draw wealth downwards, new companies whatnot would instead have say, 10% of their shareholder profits go back to 'public' and normie hands; drawing it via that.
Unfortunately, most Americans don't hodl, and system would die fast.
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@infraa_ @BillyBoone32 I've discussed this with some but:
Replacing manufacturing corporate taxes/VAT with public ownership of shares?
Only way to really integrate the framework/distribution of wealth well, the state gets 10% of shareholder returns instead of receiving taxes.
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Manufacturing employees make up just 7% of the US labor force
Every single job outside manufacturing is going to be done by AI? Every single one?
First Squawk@FirstSquawk
93% OF U.S. JOBS CAN BE DONE AT LEAST PARTLY BY AI, PER FORBES
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@tim_cook Noticing how the "Americans" working there are a lil... non American looking
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@RepDonBacon Ah yes the credit crunch wasn't fixed by tariffs... how does that relate to now? While AI is deflationary and M2/M0 ratio is already low? Interest rates are low? PE credit is high? Like dude cmon
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Smoot Hawley fueled the worst depression this country ever had.
Phil Magness@PhilWMagness
White house talking heads are already floating Section 338 of smoot hawley as their tariff back up. This is a defunct section of law and we'll be easily overruled if attempted.
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@cityaestheticss @sircalebhammer No but there's no way to segregate aside from price.
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@sircalebhammer Do people just want housing to be unaffordable for everyone who is not currently a homeowner??
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@JosephPolitano @infraa_ I was mentioning this question the other day. Despite the yuan undervaluation, this difference just for Taiwan is staggering obviously. Any 2nd & 3rd order effects present you think?
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Crazy milestone in the US trade data released today—America now imports more directly from Taiwan than from China for the first time since 1992
The trade war has cut US direct trade with China, and the AI boom has caused a surge in spending on Taiwanese-made semiconductors
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@st_louis_stan everytime I believe I learn higher heights, I check my portfolio to a 30000% drop because Trump said something crazy
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I'm convinced that I and maybe like 30 of my mutuals are the only people on the planet who understand Trump
Tim Pool@Timcast
war with iran is about to start
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@infraa_ @vince_ward25159 I don't know where to look but if there's data on the distribution of the capex to the trade deficit source there could be some interesting stuff.
Distribution on capex to which country + the effect on their markets for when the CapEx period ends (cyclical maybe? ~5y timeframe)
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@vince_ward25159 Yea we had $216 billion of t-bill auctions, just yesterday alone
Wild stuff
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SOFR is moving higher again... and it's not EoQ or tax deadline
Now just 2bps below the upper bound amid yesterday's $30.5B repo usage (3rd highest since 2020) & $216B t-bill auctions
SOFR-RRP now at the widest spread since the end of 2025
Might need to ramp those RMP's a bit
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@DividendsB @infraa_ @DolioJ It's a distribution problem for sure, one ironically that we can't currently solve culturally.
I mean what is a country of machine maintanance priests? What even are prices atp?
LTV & post market pricing are just too logical for the finacialized market to digest
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I feel like it has to be. Assuming the labor replacement happens on the timeline being discussed (I have some reservations).
But assuming so what other alternative is there? People have mortgages, student loans, car loans, credit card debt, ext and no income to service the debt?
The crisis soon moves from individuals to banks and ultimately to governments. Some form of UBI and a complete rehaul of the tax code (emphasis on corporate tax) would be necessary.
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Brilliant plan.
I think $7 milk and $13 gas is a great idea.
Polymarket@Polymarket
BREAKING: The Fed to print & inject $16,000,000,000.00 into the economy this week.
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@infraa_ Saw this and blankly stared at my screen. What is this snapback?? I would assume its datacenter related but I would like to see where it resulted from?
China? Korea? Japan?
Maybe even German tooling?
10B isn't a ton and this could be industrial toolouts?
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The trade deficit has actually widened by 19% since Liberation Day
*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone
TRUMP CLAIMS 78% DROP IN U.S. TRADE DEFICIT Donald Trump says U.S. tariffs have cut the trade deficit by 78% and predicts it will turn into a surplus this year for the first time in decades.
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Is this going to be a fiscal-dominance economy with deflation or what?
Like honestly I'm not seeing the endgame for how the government can print the money to deflate with + deal with housing costs.
A middle class UBI check from smth? Where is money coming from for avg person?
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@yieldsearcher @infraa_ Fiscal Dominance + deflation is quite an interesting future...
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@infraa_ @DividendsB @DolioJ I never really thought AI would be deflationary until now either. The making of it is a crunch on supply, and WHEN it blows up the crash will be inflationary. Is the consensus now that the crash is being 100% bailed out (4 gov tax receipts) and the labor replacement inevitable?
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@DividendsB @DolioJ Under
Bond market appears to be screaming a warning wrt deflation from AI
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After agents raided a Florida job site & arrested 100+ illegals, Hedrick Brothers Construction is now reportedly unsure if they can finish without the affordable labor.
They were building student housing for Florida State University & now cannot meet the deadline.
Is this what you voted for?
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@kimchiforprez Depends if mom is asian or white. MASSIVE phenotype difference
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@Wizardgames15 @americanhousing Frankly a police officer in every corner of downtown while just about everyone not being an immigrant is kinda a minimum for non-suburb living. It's gross to have to worry about noise and safety and the nonsense coming with cosmopolitan spaces
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@AngloFlare @americanhousing Immigrants are statistically low crime committers. And yeah it’s sad that poor neighborhoods tend to be crime ridden but it’s a natural effect of wealthier/low crime neighborhoods being more desirable. It’s an ouroboros.
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Young people view having kids as the death kneel of their metropolitan social lives because their only real option for family housing lies in the suburbs.
We're changing this by building attainable homes for starting families in the city. Starting with the American Rowhome.
Mike Lee@BasedMikeLee
All 50 U.S. states have fertility rates below 2.1, the bare minimum needed to maintain the population. The U.S. government must stop depressing birth rates by making it so hard—and so expensive—to raise children
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@Wizardgames15 @americanhousing Well living around other Americans rather than immigrants and riff-raff is the first step. Housing costs being a proxy for distance from them is just sad. It's really the primary locational issue, and while the unit number issue certainly exists, transit & pop growth are first
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@AngloFlare @americanhousing Also a lot easier to have the police or security in a reasonable distance when everyone doesn’t live 20 minutes by car away from everyone else
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