Ben Adelson

Introducing Plutou - The Future of Donation Logistics. Locations. Drivers. Routes.

The "Great Decoupling": Why MCU and Wireless Costs are Structurally Resetting If you’re still waiting for a "cyclical correction" in semiconductor pricing, you’re looking at an old playbook. The recent price hikes from TI, NXP, Infineon, and STMicroelectronics aren't just a ripple from the AI boom—they represent a fundamental, geopolitical, and structural reset of the embedded world. As an industry insider, I’m seeing a "Great Decoupling" where the cost of the chips that power the everyday devices around us is detaching from the historical curve of "cheaper every year." Here is what is actually driving the shift. 1. The Geopolitical Premium & The "Helium Hedge" We can no longer discuss silicon without discussing the map. The escalating conflict involving Iran has introduced a "risk premium" that hits the fab floor directly. Noble Gas Volatility: Iran-related tensions threaten global supplies of Helium, a critical cooling agent for both advanced and mature-node lithography. The Sourcing Shift: Geopolitical instability is forcing a retreat from globalized efficiency toward regionalization. Building "homegrown" capacity in the US, EU, and Japan is safer, but it’s significantly more expensive. Foundries are passing these multi-billion dollar CAPEX and energy costs directly to the customer. 2. Not Just "Mature" Nodes, but "Essential" Nodes While the world chases 2nm, the 8-inch mature nodes (40nm–90nm) have become the most contested real estate in tech. This isn't the "death" of mature nodes; it's their re-valuation. Zero-Sum Capacity: AI doesn't just pull capital; it pulls engineers and tools. Refurbished 8-inch equipment is now a scarce commodity. The Squeeze: With utilization at ~90%, there is no "slack" left. When AI demand surges for power management (PMICs) on these same lines, MCU and Wireless SoC supply is the first to feel the price hike. 3. The "Back-End" Revolution (OSAT) The hidden driver of the 15–85% price jumps we’re seeing is the OSAT (Outsourced Assembly & Test) sector. Material Inflation: The cost of gold, copper, and specialized molding compounds has surged, driven by global logistics disruptions and energy costs. Packaging Bottlenecks: Standard packages (QFN, BGA) are no longer the "afterthought" of the bill of materials. OSATs are repricing to reflect a world where labor and electricity are no longer cheap. For an MCU, where the package is a huge chunk of the total cost, this flows directly into your ASP. The Strategic Takeaway We aren't seeing a shortage; we are seeing a permanent cost-base reset. For years, the industry treated the "brains" (MCUs) and "ears" (Wireless) of embedded systems as cheap commodities. Today, they are strategic assets. If you're an OEM, the era of "just-in-time" pricing is over. Security, software longevity, and supply-chain resilience are now your primary margin levers—because the hardware "floor" has officially moved up. How is your team adjusting your 5-year BOM projections to account for this permanent shift in mature-node economics?

My dear front-end developers (and anyone who’s interested in the future of interfaces): I have crawled through depths of hell to bring you, for the foreseeable years, one of the more important foundational pieces of UI engineering (if not in implementation then certainly at least in concept): Fast, accurate and comprehensive userland text measurement algorithm in pure TypeScript, usable for laying out entire web pages without CSS, bypassing DOM measurements and reflow

My dear front-end developers (and anyone who’s interested in the future of interfaces): I have crawled through depths of hell to bring you, for the foreseeable years, one of the more important foundational pieces of UI engineering (if not in implementation then certainly at least in concept): Fast, accurate and comprehensive userland text measurement algorithm in pure TypeScript, usable for laying out entire web pages without CSS, bypassing DOM measurements and reflow

This is what $27 MRR looks like

totally agree, glass ui sucks though - hard to tell and switch branches - hard to see git commit history - no more multi agent in a chat - where are my archived chats? - terminal, browser, changes are awkward. - why does it show PRs from what and how does it decide - new ui makes it hard to distinguish between agents -slower everywhere -subagents are lacking the good - feels nicer - general ui is solid but lots of old functionality removed (see above) -composer2 is fast as fuck boiiii