Bowery Cap

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Bowery Cap

Bowery Cap

@BoweryCap

United States เข้าร่วม Eylül 2020
182 กำลังติดตาม89 ผู้ติดตาม
Bowery Cap รีทวีตแล้ว
MWT
MWT@mountainwesttax·
I’m fully on board with spiraling into a depressive episode over the rapidly approaching neo-feudalist breakdown of society, but I worked at Square in 2017 and my job had no tasks. I sat on the roof eating free snacks all day with a MacBook
jack@jack

we're making @blocks smaller today. here's my note to the company. #### today we're making one of the hardest decisions in the history of our company: we're reducing our organization by nearly half, from over 10,000 people to just under 6,000. that means over 4,000 of you are being asked to leave or entering into consultation. i'll be straight about what's happening, why, and what it means for everyone. first off, if you're one of the people affected, you'll receive your salary for 20 weeks + 1 week per year of tenure, equity vested through the end of may, 6 months of health care, your corporate devices, and $5,000 to put toward whatever you need to help you in this transition (if you’re outside the U.S. you’ll receive similar support but exact details are going to vary based on local requirements). i want you to know that before anything else. everyone will be notified today, whether you're being asked to leave, entering consultation, or asked to stay. we're not making this decision because we're in trouble. our business is strong. gross profit continues to grow, we continue to serve more and more customers, and profitability is improving. but something has changed. we're already seeing that the intelligence tools we’re creating and using, paired with smaller and flatter teams, are enabling a new way of working which fundamentally changes what it means to build and run a company. and that's accelerating rapidly. i had two options: cut gradually over months or years as this shift plays out, or be honest about where we are and act on it now. i chose the latter. repeated rounds of cuts are destructive to morale, to focus, and to the trust that customers and shareholders place in our ability to lead. i'd rather take a hard, clear action now and build from a position we believe in than manage a slow reduction of people toward the same outcome. a smaller company also gives us the space to grow our business the right way, on our own terms, instead of constantly reacting to market pressures. a decision at this scale carries risk. but so does standing still. we've done a full review to determine the roles and people we require to reliably grow the business from here, and we've pressure-tested those decisions from multiple angles. i accept that we may have gotten some of them wrong, and we've built in flexibility to account for that, and do the right thing for our customers. we're not going to just disappear people from slack and email and pretend they were never here. communication channels will stay open through thursday evening (pacific) so everyone can say goodbye properly, and share whatever you wish. i'll also be hosting a live video session to thank everyone at 3:35pm pacific. i know doing it this way might feel awkward. i'd rather it feel awkward and human than efficient and cold. to those of you leaving…i’m grateful for you, and i’m sorry to put you through this. you built what this company is today. that's a fact that i'll honor forever. this decision is not a reflection of what you contributed. you will be a great contributor to any organization going forward. to those staying…i made this decision, and i'll own it. what i'm asking of you is to build with me. we're going to build this company with intelligence at the core of everything we do. how we work, how we create, how we serve our customers. our customers will feel this shift too, and we're going to help them navigate it: towards a future where they can build their own features directly, composed of our capabilities and served through our interfaces. that's what i'm focused on now. expect a note from me tomorrow. jack

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Bowery Cap
Bowery Cap@BoweryCap·
@rev_cap Now do an equal weight or mid cap pe chart. And picture a world where we get 10% universal tariff being the final rate (most likely outcome) and narrative shifts to lower int rates and deregulation No strong lean either way here, but that paints a much better r/r than s&p 500
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Invest In Assets 📈
Invest In Assets 📈@InvestInAssets·
Invest In Assets 📈 tweet media
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Finding Compounders
Finding Compounders@F_Compounders·
David Einhorn’s Speech at the Value Investing Congress in 2006. He goes into and explains how to look at ROE( Return on Equity)
Finding Compounders tweet mediaFinding Compounders tweet mediaFinding Compounders tweet mediaFinding Compounders tweet media
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GSP
GSP@GlobalStockPick·
Had a great evening with @longriver_hk and @ArenaManCapital discussing, life, investing and everything between. Highlights were sharing a bottle of red at Hong Kong culinary restaurant Canteen and understanding that cooking down a complex investing to something simple is powerful
GSP tweet media
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Bowery Cap@BoweryCap·
@orrdavid @Crowded_Mkt_Rpt Don’t get why more people don’t talk about this. Rates suffocate legacy competition, limit VC funding of unprofitable new entrants, and pays them a huge yield. Yet most think they’ll benefit from lower rates simply bc they’ve been brainwashed that low rates = good for tech
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David Orr
David Orr@orrdavid·
@Crowded_Mkt_Rpt Also, tech should want rates to stay higher, not lower. They collect more interest on their huge cash piles with higher rates and don't finance any of this growth. Meanwhile, higher interest rates kill legacy businesses even faster, which largely helps them.
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Bowery Cap@BoweryCap·
@mjmauboussin @bgurley @RamVasuthevan 2/2 and the impact that has on firm multiple/expectation of future cash flows. Feels that there has been a shift toward market rewarding all buybacks blindly and companies are taking advantage of this, potentially to the detriment of better uses of that cash
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Bowery Cap
Bowery Cap@BoweryCap·
@mjmauboussin @bgurley @RamVasuthevan 1/2 Huge fan of your work and not questioning this from an academic perspective. That said, feels more prevalent than ever today to mention opportunity cost of buybacks (increased leverage/liquidity risk, potentially forgoing more attractive uses of cash, etc)
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Bowery Cap@BoweryCap·
@orrdavid Allocators solely care about not getting fired or looking stupid - no different than mutual fund managers. U dont get fired buying msft/allocating to blackstone. Continuous feedback loop until the cycle breaks, thus creating greater eventual damage the longer the cycle continues
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David Orr
David Orr@orrdavid·
Professional allocators are so terrible at what they do that they could overlook a stat as obvious as points per game and not automatically give everyone on the top of that list a chance. Meanwhile, they should be hunting around the world for these people. And even if these people aren't looking to raise capital, they should be aggressively trying to convince them to. You'd think greed alone wouldn't allow this. But that's how misaligned capital owners and their stewards are.
David Orr tweet media
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Bowery Cap
Bowery Cap@BoweryCap·
@Nick09348805 @dampedspring You can sell stock for the same amount of cash you’d receive by a dividend and still have the same amount of ownership of future cash flows. You just have the choice to create your own dividend, or hold onto Apple stock (which is more tax efficient than reinvesting the dividend)
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semi interested
semi interested@Nick09348805·
@BoweryTrader @dampedspring My problem is that buybacks’ value to stockholders is at the mercy of the market. Whereas dividends into my account is cold hard cash that I can do with as I please. Apple could spend $200B on buybacks and the stock could go lower next 12 months. It shouldn’t, but it could.
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Andy Constan
Andy Constan@dampedspring·
If a company buys all its shares back what is its public market cap? What is its weighting in the SPX? 😝
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Bowery Cap@BoweryCap·
@Pembrokestcap @orrdavid I’m not here to convince you or anyone of this view. I see it firsthand every day, and no I’m not going to give you private company datapoints. Believe whatever you’d like
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David Orr
David Orr@orrdavid·
Yesterday two of my followers revealed to me the identities of two of the large anonymous accounts that joined the mob attacking me. I won't reveal their identities of course. These two turned out to be young guys at low level jobs in investing. They're just a few years out of university. This really shouldn't have surprised me, I guess. That's what the vast majority of what fintwit is. Kids. After seeing this so plainly, I'm going to care a lot less going forward when these mobs start up. Short sellers will be a convenient target and who really cares.
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Bowery Cap
Bowery Cap@BoweryCap·
@orrdavid The average business these PE firms are sitting on make the Russel 2,000 look like a high quality index, and after removing made up adjustments, the avg. bus is 8-10x levered on real ebitda with all floating rate debt. It is mind blowing more people aren’t paying attention
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Bowery Cap
Bowery Cap@BoweryCap·
@orrdavid PE short thesis is not a matter of if, but when. Unfortunately every player involved (LPs, Private Credit, and PE), has every incentive to turn a blind eye and pretend these marks are real, but eventually a domino will tip and reveal nothing but levered shitcos under the surface
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Bowery Cap@BoweryCap·
@StockJabber @MrBeast They don’t make a single dollar of profit. It’s all marketing and temporary hype of a new celebrity product, not a durable business. Hersheys may not be a good investment for many different reasons, but I can promise you feastables is not one of those reasons
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Bowery Cap
Bowery Cap@BoweryCap·
@BobEUnlimited The craziest part is you show this tweet to 100 PE and Private credit partners and 95 of them don’t pick up that it’s satire. They’re in an echo chamber of delusion
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Bob Elliott
Bob Elliott@BobEUnlimited·
The thing about private credit is that it has: - higher yields - better credit quality - very low defaults - no companies with *business problems*, only those that have *financing challenges* - better covenants and higher recoveries - no pesky mkt-to-mkt driven by investor whims
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Bowery Cap@BoweryCap·
@NorthmanTrader Something tells me that will remain the case as the Fed turns dovish
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Bowery Cap
Bowery Cap@BoweryCap·
@RenMacLLC Until the tape is fighting the fed, I’ll choose fed in that fight every time
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Bowery Cap
Bowery Cap@BoweryCap·
@pmje73 Owner/founder cost of equity only matters if you need that equity to grow or operate. Finally co’s that need to access equity to operate have higher COE (as they should), and the more they need to access it the higher the cost becomes - snowball effect officially underway
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