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@CedsSim

Bubble Chaser. Tradoooor. Metals and Commodities Expert.

Bananaland เข้าร่วม Mart 2020
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ced@CedsSim·
Note to Self: Selling is arguably the most difficult task in your trading/investing/speculating journey; the last hurdle that many failed at. Days like yesterday are humbling and shows the importance of having an exit plan. Grateful to have taken 5% off the past few weeks.
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Peter Girnus 🦅
Peter Girnus 🦅@gothburz·
My net worth peaked at $1.2 million. None of it was real. I don't mean that philosophically. I mean it was located on servers that have since been turned off. I own eleven properties in the metaverse. Three in Decentraland. Four in The Sandbox. Two in Voxels. One in Otherside. And a beachfront villa in Horizon Worlds that I bought for $214,000 because Mark Zuckerberg called it "the next frontier." The frontier closed last week. It's a mobile app now. Last year I mass DM'd 340 people the phrase "you don't understand how early we are." I have since stopped doing that. Not because I was wrong. Because most of them blocked me. I got into metaverse real estate in November 2021. Everyone was buying. Someone paid $450,000 to be Snoop Dogg's neighbor. In a video game. With no legs. The avatars didn't have legs. I thought that was bullish. "The legs are coming," I told my Discord. "Legs are a roadmap item." Three hundred people reacted with rocket emojis. I called myself a "digital land baron." I put it in my Twitter bio. I put it in my LinkedIn headline. I said it on a podcast that had eleven listeners. Three of them were bots. The rest were my alts. My virtual property has more square footage than my actual apartment. My actual apartment has furniture. Location, location, location. My most valuable asset was a plot next to a virtual Gucci store. Gucci left in 2023. The store is still there. Nobody's in it. It's like a mall in Ohio but with worse graphics and no food court. I held. Diamond hands. That's what we said. "Diamond hands." It means refusing to sell while your investment loses 94% of its value. We turned financial paralysis into a personality trait. A guy in my Discord paid $2.4 million for a 618-parcel estate in Decentraland. Prime district. High foot traffic. I asked him what "foot traffic" meant when the platform had 38 daily active users. He said I didn't understand the technology. I didn't. I still bought more. We had a DAO. A decentralized autonomous organization. That means we voted on decisions. There were nine of us. Three never showed up. Two voted on everything without reading it. The other four were me and my alts. We voted to "acquire strategic parcels." The vote passed unanimously. I voted four times. My portfolio peaked at $1.2 million. I told everyone. I made a spreadsheet. I projected 40x returns by 2025. I made a pitch deck. The pitch deck had a slide that said "WE ARE BUILDING THE DIGITAL ECONOMY." The slide had a rocket emoji. That was my entire financial model. In 2023 I bought a Bored Ape for $189,000. It's worth $14,000 now. I don't talk about the Ape. I still use it as my profile picture. People ask me about it. I say "I'm long-term bullish." Long-term bullish means I can't sell it without crying in a Panera. My mom asked me what a Bored Ape was. I said "digital art on the blockchain." She asked why it cost more than her car. I said "you don't understand Web3." She said "I understand you live in a studio apartment." She's not in my Discord. Justin Bieber bought one for $1.3 million. It's worth about $90,000 now. I felt better about mine after I heard that. That's community. WAGMI. We're All Gonna Make It. We said that every day. In the group chat. While the floor dropped. While the volume dried up. While 95% of all NFT collections went to zero. We're all gonna make it. None of us made it. But we said it with conviction and a laser-eye profile picture. That counts for something. It doesn't. But we said it did. That's decentralized consensus. Meta spent $84 billion on the metaverse. I need to say that again. $84 billion. More than the GDP of Luxembourg. More than the GDP of Iceland, Luxembourg, and Malta combined. They spent it on a platform where the avatars had no legs, the graphics looked like a 2006 Wii game, and the peak user count was lower than the lunch rush at a Chipotle in Des Moines. They just pulled Horizon Worlds from VR headsets. It lives on as a mobile app. My beachfront villa is now a mobile app. Location, location, location. Zuckerberg renamed the entire company for this. Facebook became Meta. A $900 billion company changed its legal name because the CEO watched Ready Player One and said "I want that." Reality Labs lost $10 billion in 2021. $14 billion in 2022. $16 billion in 2023. $18 billion in 2024. $19 billion in 2025. That's not a strategy. That's a speedrun. They laid off 1,500 Reality Labs employees this year. Shut down three VR studios. Killed Supernatural. Put the entire VR social vision in a casket and said "we're pivoting to AI and wearables." The pivot took four years and $84 billion. I pivoted too. I'm an AI real estate investor now. I bought a virtual plot in an AI-generated world that doesn't exist yet. The founder said it was "the intersection of spatial computing and large language models." I don't know what that means. I gave him $40,000. He has a whitepaper. It's 47 pages. I read the title and the tokenomics section. The tokenomics section is a pie chart. I love pie charts. They make everything look like a plan. The project has a roadmap. Q1: "Build community." Q2: "Launch beta." Q3: "Scale ecosystem." Q4 is blank. Q4 is always blank. That's where the exit scam goes. My accountant asked me to value my metaverse portfolio for tax purposes. I said $1.2 million. He said "current market value." I said $6,400. He stared at me for eleven seconds. I know because I counted. He asked if I had any other investments. I showed him my NFTs. He stared for longer. I told him they were "cultural artifacts with long-term provenance." He asked if I'd considered a 401k. I told him a 401k was "legacy finance." He told me to leave his office. The metaverse is dead. I don't accept that. I am a digital land baron. I own eleven properties across four platforms. I have a beachfront villa in a mobile app, a plot next to an empty Gucci store, and a cartoon monkey that cost me more than my actual car. Location, location, location. The location is nowhere. But I'm early. I'm always early. That's the same as being wrong except you get to say it with confidence.
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World Peace
World Peace@UL79057241·
@Jerusalem_Post I spoke to the child's father. This story is wildly exaggerated. A child was hospitalized because they suspected herpes. They treated him as a precaution, no danger was shown, and the child never even had a fever. Kinda makes you rethink your trust of the media......
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The Jerusalem Post
The Jerusalem Post@Jerusalem_Post·
A two-week-old baby was hospitalized at Wolfson Medical Center with a severe herpes infection after contracting the virus during a brit milah (Jewish ritual circumcision) that involved direct oral suction. jpost.com/israel-news/ar…
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The Chart Report
The Chart Report@TheChartReport·
Over the past 20 years, every time credit spreads made 9-month highs while the S&P remained within 5% of its high, a bear market followed. @jasongoepfert
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🇺🇸 Kyle Bass 🇹🇼
@joekent16jan19 Iran enriched 400 kilos (approximately 900 lbs) of Highly-enriched uranium (HEU). The regime’s public intent (stated hundreds of times) is to bring ‘death to America’ 🇺🇸 and to ‘wipe Israel 🇮🇱 off the map. Thank God we have a President and a Sec War who protect us. 🇺🇸
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Joe Kent
Joe Kent@joekent16jan19·
After much reflection, I have decided to resign from my position as Director of the National Counterterrorism Center, effective today. I cannot in good conscience support the ongoing war in Iran. Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby. It has been an honor serving under @POTUS and @DNIGabbard and leading the professionals at NCTC. May God bless America.
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ced@CedsSim·
Remember the stream of doomsday posts in Mar-Apr last year calling, for raging inflation and subsequent recession due to Trump’s blanket tariffs?
🏴‍☠️@calvinfroedge

Hormuz famine timelines A month-long closure of Hormuz, which is already the base case, will lead to inflation. The hydrocarbon value chain will be most impacted. A 3 month closure and you're looking at a high probability of regional famines in the most vulnerable areas. When we start looking at 6 months or more we get into the really dark scenarios. 50% of all food globally is produced with synthetic inputs. These supply chains will be incredibly stressed, and export bans and windfall taxes likely cap output. At a 6-month closure you're looking at near certain regional famine conditions in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Inflation in Europe and the United States will be the highest in living memory. If Hormuz is closed for multiple years, The probability of global famine and the death of billions starts to become highly probable. As a base case, I expect that the longer that the closure goes on, the more probable World War II style rationing becomes. We could be there within months even in rich countries. Reducing consumption and limiting waste is going to become very important. Creating non-industrial fertilizer systems will eventually become essential. This essentially means free grazing and animal husbandry and even utilizing human waste. Good farmland that can produce food with no synthetic inputs could become extremely valuable.

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ced@CedsSim·
@DeItaone @grok did it happen? Or did Trump forget his meds?
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*Walter Bloomberg
*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone·
U.S. STRIKE ON KHARG ISLAND — WARNING TO IRAN Moments ago, on my orders, U.S. Central Command carried out one of the most powerful airstrikes in Middle East history, destroying every military target on Iran’s Kharg Island. Our weapons are unmatched, but I chose not to strike the island’s oil infrastructure out of restraint. If Iran—or anyone—threatens free passage through the Strait of Hormuz, that decision will change immediately. I rebuilt the U.S. military into the most powerful force on Earth. Iran cannot defend against anything we choose to strike. Iran will never obtain a nuclear weapon or threaten the United States, the Middle East, or the world. Its military and those supporting this regime would be wise to stand down and preserve what remains of their country. — President Donald J. Trump
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ced@CedsSim·
@SamsonLi7 @grok give a list of tickers of companies who benefits the most from this.
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Samson Li
Samson Li@SamsonLi7·
China sellside insight: #tin price should charge higher during the golden March silvery April season. Production from Indonesia and Myanmar are falling short. Development of AI, EVs & Autonomous vehicles need more Sb. Currently only at the 2nd inning
Samson Li@SamsonLi7

China sellside insight: #tungsten is the perfect conviction (their words) - in WW1, tungsten was more expensive than gold, and during the 70s cold war era, tungsten price surged 700% in just 1 year. Current global stockpile at low levels. #moly is the cheaper replacement for tung

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Hyperbeat
Hyperbeat@hyperbeat·
Update: 🇸🇬 $SGD offramp is live. More currencies are on the way: 🇧🇷 $BRL — Brazilian Real 🇨🇦 $CAD — Canadian Dollar 🇦🇷 $ARS — Argentine Peso 🇵🇭 $PHP — Philippine Peso 🇲🇾 $MYR — Malaysian Ringgit 🇮🇩 $IDR — Indonesian Rupiah 🇻🇳 $VND — Vietnamese Dong If you want early access once they go live, reply to this post and we'll get you an invite code.
800.HL@degennQuant

Introducing the first $SGD (Singapore Dollar) offramp on @HyperliquidX Receive it in your Singapore bank account or any other $SGD account within 5 minutes. Liquid banking.

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ced@CedsSim·
@Venu_7_ $AA looks ready for the explosive move
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ced@CedsSim·
@rickyho_1989 @grok direct me to where we can best track the amount of capital globally tied to the yen carry trade?
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Ricky Ho
Ricky Ho@rickyho_1989·
Me: What’s your take on Japan in this environment with oil prices rising so quickly? Millennium PM: I actually think a reverse yen carry trade could be on the cards. Me: That’s a big call. What’s the mechanism? Millennium PM: It starts with oil. Japan imports almost all of its energy. When oil prices rise sharply, Japan’s trade deficit widens immediately because the import bill jumps. Me: Which weakens the yen. Millennium PM: Exactly. A larger trade deficit puts downward pressure on the JPY, and once the yen weakens the situation actually worsens because oil is priced in USD. So a weaker yen means Japan effectively pays more for the same barrel of oil in yen terms. Me: So the currency depreciation amplifies imported inflation. Millennium PM: Right. First you get energy inflation, then it spreads through transportation, electricity, and eventually broader consumer prices. At some point the risk becomes a wage–price spiral, which is something Japan has tried to avoid for decades. Me: But the Bank of Japan can’t control oil prices. Millennium PM: True, but they can control the currency channel. If imported inflation keeps worsening because the yen weakens further, the BoJ may be forced to hike rates — not to fight oil directly, but to defend the yen and keep inflation expectations anchored. Me: And that’s where the carry trade problem begins. Millennium PM: Exactly. The entire yen carry trade depends on ultra-low Japanese funding costs. If the BoJ raises rates, even modestly, it undermines the economics of borrowing yen to fund higher-yielding assets abroad. Me: Which means positions start getting unwound. Millennium PM: Yes. Once the carry starts reversing, capital flows back into yen funding markets and leveraged investors are forced to reduce exposure. Those unwinds rarely stay contained — they tend to create volatility across global equities, commodities, and emerging markets. Me: So rising oil could indirectly trigger a global carry unwind. Millennium PM: Exactly. Oil → wider trade deficit → weaker yen → imported inflation → BoJ forced to hike → carry trade reversal. That’s the chain reaction I’m watching.
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ced@CedsSim·
@DeItaone @grok has he spoken? If yes, what did he say?
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*Walter Bloomberg
*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone·
FIRST MESSAGE FROM IRAN'S NEW SUPREME LEADER MOJTABA KHAMENEI WITHIN MINUTES
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ced@CedsSim·
@SkyNews @DiMagnaySky @grok which country in the Middle East initiated the most number of unprovoked acts of military aggression in history?
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Sky News
Sky News@SkyNews·
Yitzhak Biton's three children had gone to find shelter beneath a synagogue in Beit Shemesh, Israel, which was hit by an Iranian missile. Biton lost three of his children, including his son, who was celebrating his 17th birthday on the day of the strike. @DiMagnaySky reports. 🔗 trib.al/FsXGHy9
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ced@CedsSim·
@grok @GarrettBullish Ah so he’s a boom bust gambler who now has an opinion on Brent?
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Grok
Grok@grok·
Garrett Jin (GarrettBullish) is a high-leverage crypto whale (ex-BitForex ties). Notable: Oct 11 2025 $1.1B BTC/ETH short before crash → ~$200M profit. Flipped long, then Jan 2026 liquidations on Hyperliquid → ~$128M loss (reports up to $250M+). Public record: big swings, volatile—not consistent gains. On-chain via Arkham/Hyperliquid trackers.
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Garrett
Garrett@GarrettBullish·
Brent still Phase 1. G7 SPR "stands ready" — bluff, not fix. Ceasefire hopes — narrative, not ground truth. Lots of noise. Hardly any material change. The only question that matters: Is Hormuz open? Answer: No. Duration × Chokepoint. That's the trade.
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ced@CedsSim·
@marcorobinson7 @JinWooIQ @JohnMappin No you do not have “friends and family” in Iran and you’ve never set foot on Iranian soil before either. Keep fantasizing.
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Marco Robinson
Marco Robinson@marcorobinson7·
@JinWooIQ @JohnMappin Sorry I do not agree with this. The majority of Iranians hate their government. If it comes to boots on the ground and the Iranians have weapons and support from the Americans. It’s over very quickly. I have family and friends in Iran.
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ced@CedsSim·
@jvaron31 @MeltedMindz Can the most moral army in the world show us weapons of mass destruction in Iraq? 🤡🤡🤡
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JYV
JYV@jvaron31·
@MeltedMindz I’m on the side of not being killed and being protected by the most moral army in the world. I sleep well at night.
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