dseyde

$BUKS/Avcon are relentlessly adding modification capabilities. These Challenger 600 series are the best-selling large business jet platforms of all time with over 1,000 deliveries and counting. Avcon Adds Two Special-mission STCs for Challengers ainonline.com/aviation-news/…

Really impressive valuation mark on $GFF's Ames Australia....11-12x EBITDA. Market still undervaluing the increasingly simplified pure play and single best publicly traded building products company.

@longcastadviser Agree. Own $MPTI, $TAYD, and $BUKS. Used to own $CVU but no longer. Seems like they could never get it together. First three have had a great run. Still lots of room for growth. A strong balance sheet goes a long way in microcap land and the first three have it.

@taobanker $CNRD is nice too

$HII seems like a really obvious buy

$CZR just got acquired by Tilman Fertitta. Barry Diller is bidding for $MGM. Neither of these own their real estate. And you are sleeping on $BYD (Boyd Gaming), which owns most of its real estate, generates greater FCF with the best capital allocation and management in gaming?

@DannyCGallo @barbell_ideas @BlackScholesMan I was at their investor day event at the NYSE earlier this month, and it seemed promising. They said they expect to announce an acquisition in the next 3–6 months. Exciting things are happening at M-tron!

@DanielSeyde @barbell_ideas @BlackScholesMan Yeah they did the raise exactly for that reason. They want to be able to purchase another company

WE DID IT! $MPTI 90$ @barbell_ideas @BlackScholesMan

Agritech company Paul Mueller $MUEL announced yet another tender offer. While not huge ($15.4m, or ~3% of the market cap), it’s the fourth in less than two years. We read the tender offer as a sign that business continues to be good. Mid-teens topline growth, high-teens #EBITDA margins, solid cash flow generation and balance sheet. And there’s some serious capacity coming online soon, probably leading to another growth spurt. Roughly 10x EV / LTM EBITDA and no coverage still.

👥 CLUSTER ALERT — $KBR 3 insiders BUYING $819.4K in 6 days: • CFO Evans: $256.3K buy • Director Von Thaer: $92.3K buy • Director Sabater: $470.8K buy Coordinated buying signals conviction at $30-32 range. #InsiderTrading #KBR #ClusterBuy

@amit32883 Any details on the land monetization?

$cato meeting Ieepa refund of $5.3m is in accounts receivable, not cash on hand. Cash on hand should go up when the wire hits. Land monetization eta 2027-28. Bought another 200k sh. Stake up to 1.6m sh (8% of co.).

@unciacapital I always get cautious when I see a company that has a really great business, like American home shield, and then management goes out and acquires a business in a different industry.

@unciacapital That is very helpful and probably worth looking into more. I don’t know the specifics of how they reinsure, and it doesn’t seem that there’s a lot of disclosure on that, but I could be wrong. The 2-10 deal may end up being a fine acquisition, but it definitely invites new risks.

@LumidaWealth @unciacapital FTDR’s home warranty business is very attractive but I worry about their acquisition of 2-10 which carries the risk for substantially higher liabilities since there’s been a surge in lawsuits against home builders for building shoddier homes.

The boring business nobody is watching: $FTDR - 12x forward earnings — 3Y low - 10% free cash flow yield — 3Y high - 55% gross margins, record FCF - $280M in buybacks. 4 years running. - 2.1M members paying recurring revenue to fix their HVAC and appliances. No datacenter risk. No Strait of Hormuz. No Sam Altman balance sheet. Just cash. And nobody is paying attention. Full breakdown in this week's newsletter: ledger.lumidawealth.com/p/will-ai-dest…

@everyonehatesp1 @phenomcapital Nice to see Conrad confirming this last week in their q1 earnings report and it looks like the company is allocating 11 million in capex this year, some of which may be partially or fully funded by government grants👀. $CNRD

Great catch by @phenomcapital, new wave of YRBM orders for $CNRD and large ones. That should give it back some momentum

@everyonehatesp1 Conrad also appointed to their board a former investment banker in the transportation industry last year, which adds to the possibility of a sale.  All in all, I couldn’t agree more with your analysis and I believe $CNRD represents a lot of value at the current share price.

Btw for people new to this the story is this: _One of the last remaining Jones Act shipyards in the US at a time where the US Admin is aggressively pushing for more shipbuilding and foreign players keep acquiring companies (Koreans mainly) + recent change of control provision and first outsider CEO in decades would point to potential sale of a unique asset _Commercial cycle has yet to get going, they'll have insane torque and the inland ships are old so they'll need replacement soon. _Defense/government is a massive opportunity. US has a huge shortage of defense shipbuilding and $CNRD has made huge headways. One of the sexiest things is their partnership with Blue Water Autonomy, where Conrad will build their unmanned defense ships, sources are between 10-30 boats a year worth of production at $40-60M per unit (ballpark), could be a massive step change in this business and first production starts in March 2026. _Clean balance sheet and dirt cheap.

$CNRD reported Q4 2025 results: _Bookings $90M, flat YoY, +202% QoQ _Book to bill 1.25x _Revenue $72M, -7% YoY _EBITDA $7.4M, +69% YoY _FCF was negative but driven by normal working capital swings (had been positive working cap so far YTD) Overall pretty solid, margins remain really good and great to see bookings inflecting. We're getting more commentary in the PR than ever before, and for the first time communication on the strategy! I added a bunch of quotes in pictures but couple of things: _Management lays out 2025 business conditions and order activity as "challenged" but are "cautiously optimistic about 2026". That's a great sign, I thought order levels and results were quite solid but I guess best has yet to come, to be fair cycle has yet to get going in commercial and defense! _"At the same time, we are selectively diversifying into complementary areas such as industrial fabrication, which we believe can provide incremental opportunities while leveraging our existing capabilities." - this is interesting and could be defense work offshore by the HII/GD of this world _Specifically calling out aligning all 5 of their facilities to "participate in emerging opportunities across defense, infrastructure, and industrial markets" Overall results are solid but even better is it seems like 2026 could be a year of further inflection especially with the beginning of the Defense story.

Man, @GeoInvesting model portfolio holding, $MUEL is a beast. Another freaking tender offer... $15.4M at $440 per share, following 3 since 2024 ($80 $250 $485). Can't recall seeing anything like this. Look forward to capcity expansions contributing soon. app.microcapresearch.com/news-feed/8137…

$GFF Q2 2026 earnings: Shedding AMES: Griffon Pivots to High-Margin Pure-Play Griffon's Q2 results are entirely overshadowed by a massive structural shift: the company is finally offloading its volatile, tariff-exposed AMES segment (formerly part of CPP) into a joint venture, while exiting the UK entirely. By combining Hunter Fan with the Home and Building Products (HBP) segment, Griffon transforms into a pure-play building products company. For the newly defined continuing operations, Q2 was a mixed bag. Favorable pricing (+5%) masked a severe volume contraction (-6%) driven by residential softness, resulting in a 1% YoY revenue decline to $421.9M. Adjusted EBITDA slipped 4% to $97.8M as lower volume hurt overhead absorption. However, with the AMES dead weight removed, a 23.2% EBITDA margin, and relentless share buybacks (20% of shares retired in two years), the baseline quality of Griffon's earnings has drastically improved. Full article with charts - link in bio 🐂 𝐁𝐮𝐥𝐥 𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐞 • 𝐏𝐮𝐫𝐞-𝐏𝐥𝐚𝐲 𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐦𝐢𝐮𝐦 𝐔𝐧𝐥𝐨𝐜𝐤𝐞𝐝 — Removing AMES eliminates Griffon's biggest headache—a highly seasonal, weather-dependent, and tariff-exposed business that dragged down consolidated margins. The remaining HBP + Hunter Fan portfolio is structurally more profitable. • 𝐀𝐠𝐠𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐑𝐞𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐧𝐬 𝐏𝐮𝐭 𝐚 𝐅𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐫 𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐒𝐭𝐨𝐜𝐤 — Since April 2023, management has bought back 11.5 million shares (20.1% of outstanding stock) for $610.9M. Sustained free cash flow from continuing operations will fund this ongoing EPS-accretive engine. 🐻 𝐁𝐞𝐚𝐫 𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐞 • 𝐕𝐨𝐥𝐮𝐦𝐞 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐢𝐬 𝐑𝐞𝐚𝐥 — Continuing operations volume dropped 6% in Q2. If residential market softness persists or worsens, Griffon will eventually exhaust its ability to offset these declines with price hikes. • 𝐂𝐨𝐬𝐭 𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐠𝐢𝐧𝐬 — Adjusted EBITDA fell faster than revenue (-4% vs -1%) as lower volume reduced overhead absorption and material costs increased, compressing margins from 23.8% to 23.2%. ⚖️ 𝐕𝐞𝐫𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐭: 🟢 Bullish. While top-line volume metrics are softening, the strategic spin-off of the AMES segment fundamentally improves the quality, predictability, and margin profile of Griffon's earnings moving forward. 𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐓𝐡𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐬 🟢🟢 𝐒𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐢𝐜 𝐎𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐡𝐚𝐮𝐥: 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐀𝐌𝐄𝐒 𝐒𝐩𝐢𝐧-𝐎𝐟𝐟 [NEW] The defining driver of Griffon's future is the definitive agreement with ONCAP to form a joint venture for the AMES U. S. and Canada businesses, alongside exploring alternatives for AMES Australia and exiting the UK. This completely removes the legacy Consumer and Professional Products (CPP) segment's volatility. Moving forward, Griffon operates as a single, higher-margin reporting segment. 🟢 𝐏𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐏𝐨𝐰𝐞𝐫 𝐌𝐚𝐬𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐃𝐞𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐖𝐞𝐚𝐤𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 Despite a tough macro environment, the continuing operations generated a 5% positive impact from price and product mix in Q2. This pricing power across both residential and commercial lines was the only factor preventing a much steeper top-line decline, showcasing the strength of Griffon's brand positioning. 🟢 𝐑𝐞𝐥𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐥𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐒𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐂𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐭 𝐑𝐞𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 Griffon remains one of the most aggressive buyers of its own stock. In 26Q2 alone, the company repurchased 0.4 million shares for $32.9M. Total repurchases since April 2023 now stand at 11.5 million shares, retiring over 20% of the company's outstanding float while maintaining a stable 2.4x net leverage ratio. 🔴 𝐃𝐚𝐭𝐚 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧: 𝐑𝐞𝐬𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐚𝐥 𝐕𝐨𝐥𝐮𝐦𝐞 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 [NEW] Management stated they 'delivered solid performance this quarter', but the underlying data reveals a red flag: a 6% pure volume decline driven primarily by residential end-markets. While pricing offset this momentarily, consecutive quarters of mid-single-digit volume drops indicate the macro housing and repair/remodel backdrop is significantly softer than the narrative suggests. 🔴 𝐌𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐚𝐥 𝐂𝐨𝐬𝐭 𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 & 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐠𝐢𝐧 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧 [NEW] EBITDA margins for continuing operations compressed from 23.8% in 25Q2 to 23.2% in 26Q2. Management explicitly called out 'increased material costs' and 'unfavorable impact of decreased volume on overhead absorption.' If raw material costs continue to climb while volume drops, negative operating leverage will accelerate EBITDA declines. 🔴🔴 𝐃𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐎𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐡 𝐁𝐥𝐞𝐞𝐝 [NEW] Before the AMES joint venture officially closes (expected June 2026), the discontinued operations are still generating massive losses. Q2 showed a $37.7M operating loss for discontinued ops. Execution risk remains high; any delays in closing the ONCAP deal will force Griffon to absorb further cash burn from this struggling unit. 🟢 𝐅𝐨𝐜𝐮𝐬 𝐨𝐧 𝐇𝐢𝐠𝐡-𝐑𝐎𝐈 𝐈𝐧𝐧𝐨𝐯𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 By divesting the low-tech AMES portfolio (shovels, wheelbarrows), Griffon's capital allocation can exclusively focus on high-margin, technology-integrated products. Management has previously highlighted the award-winning Clopay VertiStack garage doors; the streamlined corporate structure allows dedicated R&D and marketing focus on these premium product categories. 𝐎𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐊𝐏𝐈𝐬 𝐅𝐫𝐞𝐞 𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐡 𝐅𝐥𝐨𝐰 (𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐮𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐎𝐩𝐬, 𝟔𝐌 𝟐𝟔𝐅𝐘): $100.7 million Generated robust cash flow from the remaining core business in the first half of the year, comfortably funding $17.6M in CapEx, the $32.9M Q2 share buyback, and ongoing dividend payments. 𝐍𝐞𝐭 𝐃𝐞𝐛𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐄𝐁𝐈𝐓𝐃𝐀 𝐋𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐠𝐞 𝐑𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨: 2.4x Stable. Despite aggressive capital returns and lower total EBITDA, leverage improved from 2.6x a year ago and remained flat sequentially. Total outstanding debt sits at $1.4 billion, backed by $109.7M in cash. 𝐃𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐎𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐍𝐞𝐭 𝐋𝐨𝐬𝐬: -$27.6 million The Q2 net loss specifically attributed to the AMES / UK businesses being spun off. This deep loss validates management's strategic decision to jettison the segment to protect the parent company's profitability. 𝐆𝐮𝐢𝐝𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐅𝐘𝟐𝟔 𝐑𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐮𝐞 (𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐮𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐎𝐩𝐬): $1.8 billion Stable. The company maintained its guidance for the newly structured core business. First-half revenue was $876.1M, meaning the second half requires approximately $924M to hit the target, implying slight acceleration or favorable seasonality in H2. 𝐅𝐘𝟐𝟔 𝐀𝐝𝐣𝐮𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐄𝐁𝐈𝐓𝐃𝐀 (𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐮𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐎𝐩𝐬): $458 million Stable. The $458M target on $1.8B revenue implies a full-year EBITDA margin of ~25.4%. Given H1 26 delivered a 23.6% margin ($206.9M EBITDA), achieving this guidance requires significant margin expansion and volume recovery in the back half of the fiscal year. 𝐅𝐘𝟐𝟔 𝐅𝐫𝐞𝐞 𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐡 𝐅𝐥𝐨𝐰: > Net Income Stable. Reaffirmed that free cash flow will exceed net income from continuing ops, driven by disciplined working capital and a modest CapEx budget of $50 million. 𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐐𝐮𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐠𝐢𝐧 𝐄𝐱𝐩𝐚𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐁𝐫𝐢𝐝𝐠𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐇𝟐 First-half Adjusted EBITDA margins for continuing ops were ~23.6%. Achieving the $458M full-year guide implies H2 margins must step up significantly to ~27%. With volume currently contracting 6% and material costs rising, what are the specific mechanical drivers to achieve this margin step-up? 𝐇𝐮𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐅𝐚𝐧 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐒𝐲𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐠𝐢𝐞𝐬 With Hunter Fan officially combining with HBP into a single reporting segment, what specific operational or back-office cost synergies are modeled into the FY26 guidance from this consolidation? 𝐏𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐏𝐨𝐰𝐞𝐫 𝐂𝐞𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐠 You achieved a 5% benefit from price/mix this quarter, but residential volume was down 6%. Have we reached the ceiling of consumer elasticity, and if material costs keep climbing, will you accept margin compression to protect remaining volumes? 𝐃𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐎𝐩𝐬 𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐡 𝐃𝐫𝐚𝐢𝐧 With the AMES JV not expected to close until June 2026, and the segment posting a nearly $38M operating loss this quarter, who bears the burden of working capital and cash burn for these assets through the transition period?

prnewswire.com/news-releases/… $CNRD @phenomcapital

@jupiters_string On the other hand, they have a solid brand, still own a lot of real estate and Peltz is very involved. If they report anything positive, the stock could definitely get short squeezed. I will watch this from the sidelines, but it could be interesting if the stock declines more.

@jupiters_string The stock is cheap based on 2025 cash flow, but the debt is very high, plus they've made some questionable board appointments and capital allocation decisions. If Q4 issues persist, they will definitely miss 2026 guidance by a lot.

I’m With Wendy’s. 1/ I want to take a few moments to explain why Wendy’s ($WEN) at $7 is one of the most asymmetric opportunities I see in liquid public markets today. The stock is priced as if this 97-year-old American institution is in terminal decline. It isn’t. A thread.