Daniel Fine

@TrevorScottReal Imagine being a twitter employee who rage quit 😂😂😂😂

Congrats to every past and present SpaceX employee on becoming an overnight millionaire.

@vrexec Appreciation of 2.5% levered will lose to an unlevered stock portfolio. Have to buy in a location where anticipated growth is higher, at min 5% avg. They exist. If you’re not buying there, rent and invest.

I'm doing some back of the envelope math on buying vs renting. Say you buy a $1M house with 20% down at about 6% mortgage rate and plan to stay there for five years. Your principal paydown in the first five years is about $57,000, but you've paid about $230,000 in interest. You've also paid roughly $100,000 in property taxes, insurance, and maintenance. Say the house appreciated 2.5% every year — so when you sell it's worth about $1.13 million. Your all-in costs to sell are about 7.5% — brokerage commissions, transfer taxes, attorney fees, title insurance, and the inevitable post-inspection negotiation. On a $1.13M sale that's about $85K in fees. So you net about $1.046M. You still owe $743K on the mortgage. You walk away with about $303K in cash — your $200K down payment back, your $57K in principal, and about $46K in net profit from appreciation. Your non-recoverable costs — interest, property tax, insurance, maintenance — were about $330K over five years, or about $5,500/month. That's your effective rent. But you "made" $46K selling, or about $770/month — so your effective rent was about $4,700/month. Not bad, but you tied up $200K for five years to get there. And if appreciation was 1.5% instead of 2.5%, that net gain basically disappears and you're paying $5,400+/month in effective rent. And this assumes there's appreciation at all — and that something doesn't go wrong with your house that needs a major remodel or repair. On a five-year horizon at 6% rates, you need everything to go right on appreciation just to make ownership competitive with renting. The transaction costs eat most of your upside. What am I missing? Anything?

@wholemars @BernieSanders Hes the largest tax payer in human history and saves the US Gov billions but ok

@BernieSanders How much was his income and how much in taxes did he pay? I find it hard to believe that his income tax rate was only 3%.

Elon Musk, the wealthiest man alive, recently paid an effective tax rate of less than 3.3%. That is less than the average truck driver, nurse and teacher. YES, we must demand the wealthy and corporations pay their fair share. twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1…

@Gfilche Game Over

when SpaceX buys Tesla what will the combined company be called??

@chris_sinkey @nightowlai_ @SuperteamUSA So excited for this !!

We've been quietly building something big, integrating AI and tokenization at @nightowlai_ We've raised over $500k with from early adopters using 506(c). We've yet to approach VC. We've been selected as founding members of @SuperteamUSA, the US accelerator for my favorite blockchain - Solana. @NickyScanz @Amystreet are nothing short of legends. We've filed 5 provisional AI architecture patents, authored a technical & strategic 25+ page white paper, built a dazzling deck, and most importantly, an Agent OS system we think adds real value to this world. Our demo, branding, and value prop are all, for lack of a better word, ELECTRIC. Our pitch      --> Comprehensive. Our product --> Easy to use. We're now excited to announce we're opening the raise to qualifying investors for: Nightowl AI @nightowlai_ @ nightowl.com Agent Creation. Tokenized Intelligence. The AI agent labor market where humans own the intelligence. Our mission: To expand human agency over AI. Our vision: We start with why  --> "To amplify creativity and productivity… Explain how      --> …through decentralized ownership over… then what   --> …composable agent intelligence." So what's all that mean, in like, human words? It means we're building an integrated ecosystem to create, publish, and share almost anything using AI, from almost any model. Apps. Websites. Media. Agents. Whole orgs of skilled, permissioned agents (even the NFT-identified decentralized ones) that can take on complex digital work IRL (like humans). All from a neon owl-themed experience designed to inspire. Done creating? Take delivery of your unspent subscription value in the form of a regulatory compliant, US-native digital asset. Your AI value? Owned. Subscription breakage? Unbroken. Costs? Dramatically reduced. AI subscriptions? Consolidated. AI inference is now commoditized at the application layer. The next great use-case for crypto is here, accessed by anyone from normal payment rails. We've integrated 6 legal, technical, and structural innovations to architect a compliant tokenized launch from entirely within the US. We think it’s the first of its kind to pull it all together. I've had to draw from all my experience to get here, from consumer tech, SaaS, media, IT, venture/corp dev, markets, to US and international legal regulatory compliance, and meet a visionary co-founder who's got an insatiable drive to build in @Nightowl_Chris (whom we convinced to finally get on X for this). ----- Reach out. Follow us. Get the pitch. Learn about the opportunity. DD the data room. We've recorded a demo. We've recorded the full pitch presentation. See clips below We're looking to build an amazing community of decentralized owners from day 1. That day is today. Join the journey. DM

@TheCinesthetic Shutter island

what’s a movie that had the BIGGEST PLOT TWIST EVER and it still blows your mind just thinking about it ????

The next time you want to give up, remember that Elon Musk sat here after losing $100 million. This photo shows Elon Musk right after his third rocket exploded. He had just lost $100 million of his own money. SpaceX was weeks from bankruptcy, Tesla was struggling, and he was sleeping on friends’ couches. The media called him reckless, investors pulled back, and everyone told him to quit. But instead of giving up, Elon risked it all on one final launch. If it had failed, SpaceX would have been finished. The launch succeeded, changing history. Today, SpaceX is worth $800 billion and dominates the private space industry. Most people quit just before a breakthrough. Elon kept pushing when everything was against him That’s the difference between success and almost success

@amitisinvesting @stacy_muur Buy as much as you can into great names down hard, WITHOUT getting anywhere remotely close to a margin call.

I am definitely not an OG by any sense but 2022 was my first real bear and I did two things: 1) put every single penny I had into the stock market, literally 2) picked one stock, $PLTR, to DCA into during a bear, I think diversification is the worst idea because if everything is on sale then you should try to build up a position as heavily as you can in 1-3 names, for me it was one name then you just have to be right on that one name but if you are, the bears eventually go away and then you have a huge position in a low cost basis as we enter into a more bullish cycle

Question to all OGs who survived the 2018 & 2022 bear markets What's the best advice you have for the newbies going through their first bear market now?

@wholemars If you look at the GK fact sheet, their ALPHA compared to the S&P 500 is -12. It’s astonishingly horrible performance. And in a short period of time too.

Ross Gerber tried to run for the board of Tesla claiming he could fix all of Teslas problems. Tesla investors laughed at him and elected founder JB Straubel instead. Since then he has been shitting on Tesla out of bitterness.

@SawyerMerritt @SpaceX Sue Origin back at it

NEWS: Amazon has filed a formal petition calling on the FCC to deny @SpaceX’s 1 million-satellite proposal for orbiting data centers, going as far to claim the project would take “centuries” to deploy. Amazon: “Deploying the proposed million-satellite constellation would take centuries, even assuming the availability of all global launch capacity to do so. In short, the Application seems to describe a lofty ambition rather than a real plan—and a speculative placeholder rather than a complete application under the Commission’s rules.” 🤦‍♂️

@BLaw People don’t remember this was in 2022 when the market and particularly tech stocks (like twitter) fell in half (or more). He should have been able to renegotiate based on plummeting market prices. That judge was also biased against him as clearly shown in the Tesla comp case.

Elon Musk testified he had to pay full price to buy Twitter Inc. in 2022 because the Delaware judge in the company’s lawsuit to make him consummate the $44 billion deal was “biased” against him. news.bloomberglaw.com/litigation/mus…

@business Will hit 25T before 2040

A $1.75 trillion valuation for billionaire Elon Musk’s SpaceX in an IPO would be “justifiable,” according to a PitchBook analyst bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

@jorgemilburn Not selling them outright is a capex nightmare. Much better for their capital efficiency to sell each unit for ~20% profit margin (their standard target for automotive) then get 30% of the lifetime Robotaxi income.

For all of those expecting to buy a Cybercab for $30k, I suspect you’ll be disappointed. The NPV of that car in Tesla’s fleet is so much larger than the price of selling it. It would be silly of them to sell them outright unless they reach caps on their capability to self-deploy into their own fleet. The limiting factor will be operational capacity on the ground. Ramping up fleet services for thousands of vehicles in a given city is hard and will take time. Current service locations might accommodate tens of cars before they run out of space and start impeding service operations for customers who have steering wheels. Over time this bottleneck will be resolved, but just like when Model 3 deliveries were scaled, physical delivery capacity quickly became the constraint.

@Gfilche You saw chamath on the last all in episode talking about executive vans?!!

a steezy Tesla SUV / Minivan would crush it. the perfect family car

@aakashgupta The real question is what happens to Apple once 80% of apps go away?

Did Apple just luck into the smartest AI strategy in tech? Everyone’s reading this chart as Apple falling behind. The four companies above that flat green line spent a combined $400B+ on capex in 2025, projected to hit $562B in 2026. Apple spent $12.7B. One-tenth of Amazon alone. But Apple generated $123B in trailing free cash flow through December 2025. Returned $104.7B to shareholders last fiscal year. Reduced its share count by nearly a third over the past decade. Every dollar not poured into data centers went straight back to the people who own the stock. The capex bulls assume owning AI infrastructure is a prerequisite for winning. History says otherwise. Sparkline Capital studied every major capex supercycle since the 1860s and found asset-heavy firms consistently underperform asset-light ones. The current AI buildout already exceeds the internet boom’s peak relative to GDP. When you adjust for GPU replacement cycles, it surpasses the railroad era. And the return math is brutal: Big Tech needs $2 trillion in annual AI revenue by 2030 to justify current spend. Actual AI revenues today sit around $20B. That’s a 100x gap. Apple runs its own M-series chips for Private Cloud Compute and rents everything else from third parties. No Nvidia dependency. No depreciation drag from GPU racks losing half their value every 18 months. The hybrid model lets AI costs show up partly as opex, so Apple can scale up or down without being locked into a decade of infrastructure that might be obsolete in three years. Apple hit $4 trillion in market cap in October spending one-tenth what its peers spend. If the capex arms race produces the returns the market expects, the other four were right. If it produces the returns that every prior infrastructure supercycle in history produced, Apple just played everyone by doing almost nothing.

@Teslaconomics Unfortunately Tesla is just ignoring so much low hanging fruit. I know ultimately elons ruthless efficiency is the best path forward. But damn so many amazing models could’ve been built. Tesla sprinter van, 3 row SUV, convertible model S, higher end S like 120-150k etc.

If Tesla came out with a CyberSUV, it would bankrupt Rivian

If China had its own version of an Elon Musk, I bet they’d be backing him with everything they’ve got. They’d remove all obstacles, pour in as many resources, and line up the country behind a clear goal to win. And if that ever happened, the U.S.-China race wouldn’t even be close. That’s why, whether people like him or not, we should recognize what we have right now. Elon has helped put America back in the lead in areas where we would have never had a chance against China… like electric vehicles, reusable rockets, satellite internet, AI, robotics, advanced manufacturing. Without this kind of entrepreneur and relentless determination, it’s tough to say we’d be leading the way in any of these fields today. You don’t have to agree with everything he says to see the impact. Vision at this scale is super rare. And the ability to execute on it is even rarer. It’s just sad to see many Americans treat him like trash, when in reality, he’s a national treasure than we may never witness again.

i dont think people understand what the xAI all-hands means: if spacex starts deploying orbital solar-powered compute at the rates elon said, it would more or less look like this: year 1: 100 GW. roughly 1% of earth's total energy capacity year 2: 300 GW cumulative. 3% of earth year 3: 700 GW. 8% year 4: 1.5 TW. 17% year 5: 3.1 TW. a third of earth's entire grid year 10: 39 TW. 4x every power plant on the planet combined between year 10 and year 13 autonomous lunar factories come online year 13: 144 TW. 16x earth. mass driver construction accelerates year 15: 500 TW. 56x earth. between year 15 and year 20 mass driver operational, launching AI satellites from the moon one after another year 20: 16,000 TW. 1,778x earth year 30: 16,000,000 TW. 1.8 million x earth this is the conversion of the solar system into a compute substrate. the rockets, the satellites, the lunar factories, the mass driver, the AI running on all of it, all done by the same dude on a civilizational run

@amitisinvesting @sachinvats Amit, big fan. When you feel that feeling in your stomach that you’re describing here is precisely when you close your eyes and buy. You train it and it becomes the best indicator you’ll ever have.

@sachinvats man...equity markets are not easy to survive in when it feels like the bottom is falling out...

There are 45+ yrs people in my network who sold all positions on Thursday after not able to bear pain of drawdown and then called me yesterday to ask, when this dead cat bounce will fade I am speechless!

@nymbusjp Imagine 10 years of this ….

Imagine the post-merger Tesla-SpaceX earnings call. Elon on stage, deadpan, dropping bombs like they're routine updates: "Yeah, so Robotaxi is scaling exponentially—fleet size is exploding, ride-share revenue alone has more than doubled our entire company revenue in the last six months. We're now live and dominating in every major U.S. metro, and we've just kicked off operations in Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou. China is already our fastest-growing market. Optimus is fully deployed at scale across every Tesla factory and has more than doubled vehicle production rates. The data is so overwhelmingly positive that we're opening public orders tomorrow. Optimus isn't just a product—it's the most capable humanoid robot ever created. It will do any task you give it, perfectly, tirelessly. It will be the ultimate home companion, an incredible playmate and tutor for your kids—fully integrated with Grok 6, which makes it smarter, funnier, and more helpful than any human assistant could ever be. We're running into the predictable AI chip bottleneck that everyone else is panicking about, but we're simply bringing our own Terafab online ahead of schedule. First Dojo 2 chips rolling off the line by year-end, and they'll be the most powerful on Earth. On the power side, we've maxed out every available megawatt in the United States—even with Megapacks stabilizing the grid like never before. But that's not a constraint for us. Starship achieved full and rapid reusability last year, and we're now in mass production. We hit one flawless flight per week last month, zero heat shield tile loss, zero engine issues. Starting next quarter, each ship flies daily. We'll have thirty operational Starships within six months, delivering over ten thousand launches per year. That fleet will consume every chip Terafab can produce and turn them into an ever-growing constellation of AI inference and training satellites in orbit—completely bypassing terrestrial power limits. Almost forgot—lunar base construction is ahead of schedule. Ten thousand Optimii units are on-site, working 24/7, and they're crushing it. The mass driver foundation is poured, electromagnetic coils are being laid, and we're tracking to first operational launch in under two years. Once that's online, our growth curve goes fully vertical. One more thing I left out: Grok 7 is already in advanced internal testing and blowing past every benchmark we thought possible. The model has achieved what no physicist has managed in a century—it has unified General Relativity and Quantum Mechanics into a single coherent framework. We're still validating, but the implications are profound. That's all the updates I have. Questions?"