DontMindMe38

@Twills08 I think they will attempt to jawbone and drain spr all the way till midterms. Not sure if they can do it but I think they will try. Instead of demand destruction and likely recession, they are opting for papering over the situation to maintain the illusion that we aren't fukt.

I remain extremely bullish on oil and gas plays. I particularly think $BATL and $SKYQ have massive upside. $USO is so heavily shorted, any buying pressure will send it. This is absolute insanity. I don’t think people realize that we need high oil prices right now. The economy will collapse if demand destruction doesn’t begin in earnest. It ideally starts before there is no oil and gas for truckers, cargo planes, and airlines….

@hinonator @traderhc I think the lowering yields may have to do with some flight to safety.

@DoomerTard @traderhc Yep , he will certainly try , and since cash market is priced higher you can buy wti on paper and selling it at hihher price on the market

Everyone's calling the $TLT rip a Fed pivot. It's not. Bonds ripped +1.41% on the second straight housing miss, but breakevens are dead flat at 2.18% and real yields are still +2.23%. That's recession hedging, not cut front-running. Here's the mechanic. TLT dealers are long gamma, flip at $87, call wall $88. Price sits just inside the positive zone, so $88 is a magnet into PCE. But $87 is the trapdoor. A hot Core PCE Thursday knocks it through the flip, dealers stop absorbing and start amplifying. I think TLT pins 87-88 into the print, then the binary picks the direction. Pivot or recession hedge. Which side are you on?

@hinonator @traderhc While he might you assume he can keep it together for 4 more months with spr draining....

@traderhc I m on the side that Bessent is doing all he can to lower yield , to help with refinancing debt maturities, at the same time when oil going down it help the Fed to fuel the bull market by lowering rate expectation or let the market think that it could come later this year…

@cubedpermian @MacroAlphaHQ So the war is over? No more kinetics?

@DoomerTard @MacroAlphaHQ Level of cope on here is rising to a delusional crescendo I can barely fathom. That said, a rally is probably due

@jwpetterchak @philippilk And yet nothing matters. Its incredible

@DoomerTard @philippilk It’s collapsing - rig count going down

Chart of the day. If you don’t look at this and think that something fishy is going on, you’re ngmi. 🛢️🤡

@jwpetterchak @philippilk How do you think that? Genuine question.

@DoomerTard @philippilk I think even Bessent lost control of the price now

@stockdatamarket Now do $dia 😅

Wow, $IWM is just a giant rising wedge ! I wonder what's next !

@cubedpermian @MacroAlphaHQ One drone and they get raped.

@DoomerTard @MacroAlphaHQ You must be new here. Let me show you around

The energy permabulls actually have the tightest fundamental thesis in the entire market right now. You can map out the structural supply deficits perfectly. You can point to the drained SPR, the disciplined OPEC+ production quotas, and the undeniable fact that physical barrels are getting harder to source. Every single geopolitical headline suggests crude should be trading with a massive risk premium. And yet, US oil just crashed straight through $70 for the first time since March. This is the part where the fundamentalists start crying about manipulation, completely oblivious to how the modern mechanism actually clears. You are trying to trade physical supply constraints in an arena entirely dictated by PAPER liquidity. When CTAs and systematic trend-followers breach key moving averages, they do not care about your Middle East supply models. They mechanically dump thousands of paper contracts into a bidless tape. Risk managers then tighten collateral requirements on the resulting volatility, forcing leveraged longs to puke their positions just to meet the call. Your flawless fundamental thesis is completely irrelevant when a systematic fund is forced to deleverage. Fundamentals dictate the decade, but collateral dictates the day.

@JohnDoss1 I need the dow to take an ice bath 😅

$SPY $QQQ price action: NDX is already down. Quants want you to look at the Dow while they bail from the AI trade. 🎣

@HE4DEYES Have you ever seen this before?

The EIA has not incorporated the recent Cushing inventory draw into its reporting. This raises serious concerns about potential market manipulation at the highest levels.

@TOzgokmen When do you think equities begin to care about any of this?

WEAK MEN -> BAD TIMES: Another 10 mb of oil will erode from US reserves today. In 1 month, scarcities will start. Hormuz, Schroedinger Strait, is closed again, with 1200 ships inside. Oil bears, mostly traders who have been in business during QE=unlimited money typing for meme stocks era, do not understand that the only way to deal global commodity scarcities is super high oil prices, > 200$/b. If the price is extremely high, >300$/b, the process of demand destruction will be fast and if lower, then it will take time. Either case, we will see record high oil price later in 2026 and into 2027. There is no path to a solution any longer.

@zengucapital Love your content - always insightful. Any chance you see the Dow Jones taking a nose dive soon?

just entered into a fat $NKE position

@GingkoPT Needs to begin in the next 3 to 4 months or else im fucking cooked

A depression is unavoidable...

@JTheretohelp1 Stonks apparently dont care about this. Oil at 69. Surreal price action.

Oil inventories, oh my! "Cushing is now well and truly testing 'tank bottoms' with stocks at their lowest levels since 2014..."--Zerohedge

@FahadHandle @avionsunantiqu1 Who knows anymore. Everything is so manipulated its hard to tell.

@DoomerTard @avionsunantiqu1 And then is it like hitting a wall or is it a gradual decline of supply?

The US EIA reported another big oil draw. 15.1 million less barrels of oil in the US (6.1mm bls from commercial inventories, and 9.1 from SPR). #OOTT

@FahadHandle @avionsunantiqu1 The consensus is late july early August

@avionsunantiqu1 How long can draws of this magnitude continue?

@johnnyszerdi @philippilk Show me where the demand for oil has decreased then.

@DoomerTard @philippilk demand destruciton is a result of already high prices, which then causes prices to drop. Macro 101 stuff lol.

The Strait is literally still closed!!! 🤣🤡🤡🤡

@johnnyszerdi @philippilk Demand destruction requires high prices...

@philippilk The strait opening is now irrelevant. It’s dropping due to demand destruction.