DontMindMe38
1.3K posts


@DoomerTard @MacroAlphaHQ You must be new here. Let me show you around
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The energy permabulls actually have the tightest fundamental thesis in the entire market right now.
You can map out the structural supply deficits perfectly.
You can point to the drained SPR, the disciplined OPEC+ production quotas, and the undeniable fact that physical barrels are getting harder to source.
Every single geopolitical headline suggests crude should be trading with a massive risk premium.
And yet, US oil just crashed straight through $70 for the first time since March.
This is the part where the fundamentalists start crying about manipulation, completely oblivious to how the modern mechanism actually clears.
You are trying to trade physical supply constraints in an arena entirely dictated by PAPER liquidity.
When CTAs and systematic trend-followers breach key moving averages, they do not care about your Middle East supply models.
They mechanically dump thousands of paper contracts into a bidless tape.
Risk managers then tighten collateral requirements on the resulting volatility, forcing leveraged longs to puke their positions just to meet the call.
Your flawless fundamental thesis is completely irrelevant when a systematic fund is forced to deleverage.
Fundamentals dictate the decade, but collateral dictates the day.

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@TOzgokmen When do you think equities begin to care about any of this?
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WEAK MEN -> BAD TIMES:
Another 10 mb of oil will erode from US reserves today.
In 1 month, scarcities will start.
Hormuz, Schroedinger Strait, is closed again, with 1200 ships inside.
Oil bears, mostly traders who have been in business during QE=unlimited money typing for meme stocks era, do not understand that the only way to deal global commodity scarcities is super high oil prices, > 200$/b.
If the price is extremely high, >300$/b, the process of demand destruction will be fast and if lower, then it will take time.
Either case, we will see record high oil price later in 2026 and into 2027.
There is no path to a solution any longer.
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@zengucapital Love your content - always insightful. Any chance you see the Dow Jones taking a nose dive soon?
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@GingkoPT Needs to begin in the next 3 to 4 months or else im fucking cooked
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A depression is unavoidable...
Mac10@SuburbanDrone
It was a headfake breakout in bond yields. The market is trading like a recession is coming.
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@JTheretohelp1 Stonks apparently dont care about this. Oil at 69. Surreal price action.
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@FahadHandle @avionsunantiqu1 Who knows anymore. Everything is so manipulated its hard to tell.
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@DoomerTard @avionsunantiqu1 And then is it like hitting a wall or is it a gradual decline of supply?
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The US EIA reported another big oil draw. 15.1 million less barrels of oil in the US (6.1mm bls from commercial inventories, and 9.1 from SPR). #OOTT

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@FahadHandle @avionsunantiqu1 The consensus is late july early August
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@johnnyszerdi @philippilk Show me where the demand for oil has decreased then.
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@DoomerTard @philippilk demand destruciton is a result of already high prices, which then causes prices to drop. Macro 101 stuff lol.
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The Strait is literally still closed!!! 🤣🤡🤡🤡
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter
BREAKING: US oil prices fall below $72/barrel for the first time since March 3rd.
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@johnnyszerdi @philippilk Demand destruction requires high prices...
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@philippilk The strait opening is now irrelevant. It’s dropping due to demand destruction.
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@noble_capital_1 @DarioCpx When do you think the rubber hits the road?
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@DarioCpx At this point I’m holding until this thing hits zero
I’ll consider selling if oil goes negative
Maybe…
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I hope this helps - don't forget that while volumes have been cratering, speculative short positioning reached today's extremes at the same time

JustDario@DarioCpx
The oil futures market is grinding to a halt - feel free to check what's happening if you don't believe me
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DontMindMe38 retweetledi

There is no revolution coming. There is no uprising that overthrows the government. The elites have spent decades preparing for every possible threat to their power.
People love saying, “There are more of us than them.”
So what? How can millions of people unite when they hate each other over race, gender, politics, religion, and even sports teams? A divided population is a defeated population.
The truth is, the system doesn’t need to suppress everyone. It only needs to keep everyone distracted, angry, and fighting each other.
And voting? People act like they’re choosing the future of the country. Most of the real decisions are made long before the average person ever steps into a voting booth.
There is no grand awakening coming. No mass rebellion. The people at the top understand human nature better than the people at the bottom understand themselves.
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@DoomerTard @FortuneOptions You need to measure live puts to calls
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Where does market go from here? Well it depends on how much dealers want to pay out more downside. VIX leads into 21.6 & 23.36 next. Prior attempts I can’t even begin to share the pictures of how many examples it rejects 21.6 & 23.36 VIX (I share 4 for good measure).
What’s most obvious route? A bit more of a sell then an instant reject on 21.6 & 23.36 like every other time😂




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@Mr_Derivatives Not only that, but we have 250 anniversary and Trump's bday... I don't think we're ready for this guys....
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$VIX Seasonality was true to June.
But take a peep at July…
Prepare.
Heisenberg@Mr_Derivatives
$VIX seasonality.
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