Eric

@pati_marins64 But like what put them in danger in the first place ?

U.S. rescue teams were ambushed, suffering losses worth hundreds of millions of dollars, but according to the U.S., they managed to accomplish the mission. According to official information, the second American pilot managed to hide for more than 24 hours and was rescued in an operation where, as I have reported in recent days, Iran lets them in, but getting out is the real problem. It appears that American forces tried to use an old agricultural airstrip in the region, but Iran had already prepared a large-scale ambush. At least two variants of the C-130, possibly MC-130J, were lost, along with one or more AH-6/MH-6 Little Bird helicopters. There are also reports of two Black Hawks being hit, but which managed to leave the area safely. Contrary to the official version that the units were destroyed on the ground, the images clearly show damage caused by air defenses on the aircraft wreckage, and this may cast doubt on any other official version of the event, including potentially much larger losses. The two MC-130J Commando II each cost between US$ 114-165 million, but with special SOF configurations they easily reach US$ 130-165 million per unit, which puts the damage between US$ 260-330 million. The MH-6 Little Bird costs about US$ 2-4 million in the basic version and US$ 7.5 million in the more equipped variants like the ones used in missions such as this one in Iran. This is the minimum estimate of the damages, but the losses may be higher when all the assets are accounted for. In the last 72 hours, the damage tally also includes 1 F-15, 1 A-10, 2 MQ-9 drones also shot down, and damage to anther A-10, two Black Hawks, plus one CH-47F destroyed on the ground in Kuwait, bringing the total damage close to half a billion dollars in just the last 3 days. If the information on casualties released so far is correct, despite the losses, the rescue operation was a success when viewed in isolation. However, it calls into question everything that has been said by the U.S. so far about Iranian air defenses and reinforces what we have been saying about the gradual deployment of these systems, which, according to my own estimates, Iran still has hundreds of. In addition, this latest event shows what I had already said: Iran is a master of ambushes, with a highly consolidated asymmetric doctrine developed across multiple conflicts that include wars in Yemen, Syria, and through various proxies. Iranian ambush capability comes out strengthened, and if the pilot rescue really occurred, the American special forces come out of this operation looking very good. Join us open.substack.com/pub/global21

@FundamentEdge What are you even saying here, bud ? It’s an extremely convoluted thread - if you want the avg person to invest , spell it out in 3 sentences max , not 8 posts

AI won't kill fundamental investing because more information doesn't kill alpha. We have decades of priors here (Excel, Bloomberg, alt data...all democratized analysis & information gathering, and didn't kill alpha). As measured by factor volatility, stocks are less efficient and more alpha-rich than ever (and empirically, the ability of multi-eight figure market neutral multi-managers to consistently grind out 10-15% returns in an idio-maximized way proves this point...15 years ago a $10bn hedge fund was considered to be impossibly large). Innovations in investment process have shifted alpha pools, for sure, and systematic investors have arbitraged many old, reliable fundamental alpha pools. But as the players at the poker table have shifted, the constraints of those new players have created new alpha pools. Long duration fundamental investing has been gutted, and definitionally competing against a group of non-fundamental (quants, factor/thematic investors, indexers) and duration-constrained (multi's) investors should be a huge competitive advantage, long term (however frustrating in the near term). To wit, a 9-month thesis where I "look through" the next two prints is now considered a long-term thesis. Rigorous investment process serves investment judgment, but the real alpha generation fits a power-law distribution and there is some ineffable "nose for money" that the great investors have, that cannot be trained necessarily. Investing is a very hard game, that cannot be distilled to a reinforcement learning sandbox (by the time it is, the regime will have shifted and new drivers move stocks). AI has no sense of materiality, no true discernment, and the lack of context of N of 1 situations (if you haven't noticed, we are living in an N of 1 world!). There is a irreducible element of humanness that is critical to success in fundamental investing, and that won't change. What does this all mean? In my opinion, there is no better time to be starting a careers as an investor. My first year on the desk, I spent a lot of time doing grunt work: updating Nielsen files, updating models for my PM, creating same store sales master files, building question lists for CEO meetings, etc. This is grunt work. I can automate this all now, and get more quickly to the deep, value added parts of learning the investment process. Will AI drive alpha? This is a debate people are having, which I find sort of silly. When used correctly, by the right investor, of course it will. Ask any great investor if they had another 4 hours of research time per day whether the quality of their research would improve? That's kind of a dumb question...of course it will. Compressing the mechanical part of your job to focus more on the artisanal part of the job is Step 1, and with agentic systems accelerating fast is now in the strike zone of possibility. This is before we start to layer in a broader monitoring net and use cases to go deeper and build more rigor, finding signals in unstructured data that were missed before, as well as turning your investment genius into a co-pilot pattern recognition system. The future is very bright for fundamental investing, in my opinion.

@TWDTV1 @sluggahjells Don’t think I can make it but I’m sure I’ll catch ya soon !

@sluggahjells @EC88338

OVERALL MONDAY w/ @sluggahjells - Lakers contenders now 3rd in West? - Chiefs getting Justin Fields smart? - Great idea for NBA to expand or nah? - Match Madness most watched player? - Michael Jordan that can act! & more 5:30 PM ET, LIVE twitter.com/i/spaces/1nxnR…

OVERALL MIDweek w/ @sluggahjells - Kyler to the Vikings happening - The fallout of Ravens out on Crosby - Was Bam’s 83 good in your book? - Is NBA MVP down to 2-man race? - WNBA owners not budging on CBA & More 3:15 PM ET, LIVE twitter.com/i/spaces/1dGYl…

@sluggahjells @AdamSchefter @SethWickersham @JordanRaanan You’re not lying sir

@AdamSchefter @SethWickersham @JordanRaanan This is American “accountability” in a nutshell. Where Steve Tisch and his siblings can just pass their ownership down to their heirs, and act like that is their punishment for Steve being an Epstein flies figure.

New York Giants co-owners Steve, Laurie and Jonathan Tisch are requesting to transfer their stakes in the team to their children’s trusts, according to an NFL memo obtained by @SethWickersham and @JordanRaanan.

@sluggahjells @TWDTV1 @AdamSchefter lol woulda been huge for both !! Sorry Brad Holmes let ya down

@EC88338 @TWDTV1 @AdamSchefter For those Lions fans (and my branding more importantly), it’s a sigh of no. 😩😂

ESPN sources: the Raiders agreed to trade five-time Pro-Bowl DE Maxx Crosby to the Baltimore Ravens in exchange for 2026 and 2027 first-round picks. The trade cannot be processed until next week, but it is in place. And Crosby is expected to be a Raven with two 1s back to Vegas.

@sluggahjells @TWDTV1 @AdamSchefter So no Crosby and Hutch ? 😩

@AdamSchefter Man 💥💥💥💥💥 Maxx Crosby traded to the Ravens in the end! Whoa!

@sluggahjells @TWDTV1 @spurs Me and @DJNotorious2K7 tried telling ya !

@spurs Victor Wembanyama reacting like he won Game 7 of the NBA Finals, as he is exhausted and emotional after that incredible Spurs 25-point comeback victory, after beating the Pistons last night. 🎥 @TWDTV1

SPURS WIN!!!!

@BillAckman @NYCMayor STFU Bill, you are such a hack who is just tweeting messages to support your (undisclosed until after the fact ) portfolio as always - so don’t try to act like you care about morals bud

So let me get this straight. You support the Khamanei regime that killed 38,000+ protesters and maimed hundreds of thousands more. A regime that has repeatedly called for Death to America and has killed thousands of our servicemen and citizens. One that has taken away women’s rights and freedoms for the Iranian people. And then you call our efforts to destroy the evildoers a catastrophic escalation. You also support those who attack our police force. You take the side of the criminals rather than the victims of violent actors in our city. How is it that you can’t differentiate between good and evil? Why is this so hard for you?

Today’s military strikes on Iran — carried out by the United States and Israel — mark a catastrophic escalation in an illegal war of aggression. Bombing cities. Killing civilians. Opening a new theater of war.  Americans do not want this. They do not want another war in pursuit of regime change. They want relief from the affordability crisis. They want peace. I am focused on making sure that every New Yorker is safe. I have been in contact with our Police Commissioner and emergency management officials. We are taking proactive steps, including increasing coordination across agencies and enhancing patrols of sensitive locations out of an abundance of caution. Additionally, I want to speak directly to Iranian New Yorkers: you are part of the fabric of this city — you are our neighbors, small business owners, students, artists, workers, and community leaders. You will be safe here.

@KryptoKai72 Mulan

🎬 Movie Madness 🎬 *Name a MOVIE that has the letter combo "AN" somewhere in the title! (AN American Werewolf in London)

@TWDTV1 @sluggahjells @BleavNetwork @DJNotorious2K7 @Mnagbe06 @Keepit100Brando @MrMentor19 @JXSportsTalk @PeterSerr @bettingmonster @KryptoKai72 @DrNeil22 @Str8cash510 @kbbrown72 Your words not mine lol, check the post !

@TWDTV1 @sluggahjells @BleavNetwork @DJNotorious2K7 @Mnagbe06 @Keepit100Brando @MrMentor19 @JXSportsTalk @PeterSerr @bettingmonster @KryptoKai72 @DrNeil22 @Str8cash510 @kbbrown72 😂 the final chapter in this years Cheesecake bowl ( or perhaps rebranded as the cheesebowl ) Thank you genuinely both for the laughs - it was great to be there from inception to conclusion

OVERALL w/ @sluggahjells on @BleavNetwork - The CheeseBowl conclusion with @DJNotorious2K7 - Darnold silenced all critics BEFORE Super Bowl? - Still laughing about that Terry Bradshaw moment Top show, below🎉 bleav.com/shows/overall-…

@sluggahjells @BleavNetwork @DJNotorious2K7 OVERALL w/ @sluggahjells on @BleavNetwork The CheeseBowl conclusion with @DJNotorious2K7 w/ @Mnagbe06 @Keepit100Brando @EC88338 @MrMentor19 @JXSportsTalk @PeterSerr @bettingmonster @KryptoKai72 @DrNeil22 @Str8cash510 @kbbrown72 Top show, below🎉 bleav.com/shows/overall-…