Pratik

Margins are likely being impacted. If that’s the case, would growth become more volume-led..? In that scenario, could nominal GDP be lower while real GDP remains relatively higher, leading to lower market valuations (multiples) in India and potentially triggering further sell-offs by FIIs going forward...?

India's Q4 FY26 earnings season is revealing something the bears did not expect: broad-based profit growth across infrastructure and industrial companies. L&T reported highest ever order inflow — 2.97 lakh crore for FY26. Revenue up 16 percent. The infrastructure capex cycle is not slowing. Axis Bank's 55,000 crore fundraise signals banks expect credit demand to accelerate, not slow. When banks raise capital at scale they are betting on loan growth over the next 2-3 years. India Cements posted profits 3x higher than last year. Cement demand — the most basic proxy for construction activity — is running above all estimates. The pattern across Q4 results: infrastructure companies beating estimates. Banks growing loan books. Cement and steel demand above forecasts. Defence companies with record order books. Power companies at peak utilisation. The macro narrative from foreign analysts is recession fears. The micro reality in Indian corporate earnings is expansion. At some point bottom-up data overwhelms top-down narrative. This earnings season might be that inflection point.

@braddy_Codie05 "india is indestructible union of destructible state"

Do a Constitutional Amendment that CM of a State can be appointed as the CM of another State having Additional Charge at the Discretion of the President of India, post that give Additional Charge of West Bengal to UP CM Yogi Adityanath and send Officers like Ajay Pal Sharma and Anuj Chaudhary. Then see what happens.

@Macrobysunil Similar pattern in 10yr n 30 yr Bond yield..!

Keep a close eye on yields here. US 2Y yields look like they are quietly building a short-term base after the recent spike and consolidation. On the other side, oil is still holding very strongly despite risk assets staying bid. That combination should not be ignored. Once yields start moving higher from this base, risk assets can get blindsided very quickly because it signals renewed Treasury selling and tighter liquidity conditions. Higher oil pressures inflation expectations. Higher yields pressure valuations and funding conditions. Together, they create the exact setup where markets suddenly realize the “risk-on” move was built on very fragile liquidity. For now, equities are acting comfortable. But as oil holds firm and yields break higher, that comfort can turn into panic very fast.

@Macrobysunil Dont worry market will hit All time high😅

The most dangerous inflation of all is coming. Food inflation. When fertilizer costs explode, the pain does not stay in commodities. It moves straight into the cost of survival. A lot of small-scale farmers, and even large producers, will see margins get squeezed. And if 2026 is shaping up to be a strong El Niño year as they are saying, this is not turning into a good backdrop at all.

@Macrobysunil Like..?

@ErPSD217 Raising vix is very bullish in this environment.

Brent back above 100 even after the ceasefire extension announcement is telling you something. The market is not fully buying the headline.

@Macrobysunil Previously, when Crude VIX increased, crude prices eventually followed with nearly an 80% rise..!

@willyKemptsra @JoumannaTV @JavierBlas Well said...👍

@JoumannaTV @JavierBlas Financial markets priced hope; physical markets priced risk. Guess which one actually has to deliver barrels.

OIL observation: Interesting that physical oil market has caught up with paper market (and not other way round) As @JavierBlas explained in his column last week: "The physical market was pricing scarcity; the financial market pricing the end of the war" So what has changed? #OOTT

@Macrobysunil Natural gas has also stopped falling over the past 3–4 days, which is somewhat surprising to me because it didn’t rise when the war started....!

The Dollar Index looks like it’s trying to build a base on the lower time frame, and this is the signal for whether escalation is happening or not. When the dollar starts pushing higher in a macro backdrop like this, it rarely happens on its own. More often, it points to a stronger bid for safety, tighter dollar liquidity (For Oil), and stress building beneath the surface. If DXY starts trending higher from here, I’d read it as an early sign the market is starting to price in a deeper rise in war risk, along with growing fears around an oil supply shock. Put simply, the dollar often signals before the headlines catch up. A stronger dollar paired with rising oil stress tends to signal risk aversion, external funding pressure, and tighter global conditions. Keep an eye on the dollar. It looks like it’s quietly laying the groundwork for the next macro move.

@Macrobysunil Another sign is that today gold and silver are seeing selling pressure right from the morning, which is another stress signal. It also suggests that the DXY may strengthen if no positive developments emerge on the war front..!

@Macrobysunil This also shows that no matter what happens on the war front, we are going to face an energy crisis....!

It is increasingly clear they are engineering an energy crisis. Too many refineries, rigs, supply routes, and geopolitical flashpoints are being hit at the same time for this to feel random.

@Malikas_Friend @Macrobysunil The timing of the attacks makes me feel that something fishy is going on here....!

@ErPSD217 @Macrobysunil There were also many fires and explosions in 2025. Aside from the ones from missiles & drones are these "accidents" from sabotage or lack of proper maintenance and repairs? Most of the experienced machinists retired during Covid with no skilled young people to replace them.

Refineries around the world are catching fire at the same time. Too many “coincidences” start looking like a signal. Energy infrastructure stress is no longer something you can ignore.

@seriousfunnyguy x.com/ErPSD217/statu… Happening almost everywhere.look fishy..!

Modi was to inaugurate one of the biggest oil refineries in Rajasthan tomorrow and today a huge fire has engulfed it 🔥 The opposition is so much against development, Sabotage seems quite likely.

@DarioCpx x.com/ErPSD217/statu…

Remarkable flurry of headlines in pre market from all sort of “sources” but Iran - no major taco yet, but till this works I believe there won’t be any need for it yet since only the idea of it will be enough

@Macrobysunil The situation has turned dire and the market has not priced it in at all...!

Why would Iran deny passage to a Chinese ship?

@A_GlobalThinker @Macrobysunil Best suited meme on current situation 😂

@Macrobysunil #IYKYK

This came after the market closed.

@Indian_Analyzer Cross Voting may happen from Opposition MPs from Maharashtra...!

🚨 HUGE MATH! Even walkouts may not be enough to pass the Delimitation Bill — The numbers in Lok Sabha show how tough the 2/3rd majority is. • Base position: NDA: ~294 (up to ~304 with allies) Full House: 540 2/3rd mark: 360 About 54 Votes SHORT 😳 • Walkout scenario: - Samajwadi Party: 37 - All India Trinamool Congress: 28 - UBT Sena: 9 👉 Total walkout: 74 MPs • Revised numbers: Present: 466 2/3rd needed: 311 NDA + allies: ~306 ➡️ Still short by ~5 votes Even after major opposition walkout, Bill doesn’t pass automatically. Needs cross-voting or more absentees KNIFE-EDGE NUMBERS, EVERY VOTE CRUCIAL.

@DarioCpx $286 for a barrel of oil....🧐

Yep, he is definitely quite desperate to keep fabricating markets pumping headlines

You know what the problem nowadays is? People focus too much on charts and technicals rather than the macro setup. I think going forward, macro will play or already playing - a crucial role in determining how much alpha you generate in the market. The earlier people understand this, the better it will be for them...!

Calling a top in gold from one visual illusion and a single historical comparison is pure delusion. There’s no look at gold against money supply, no look at gold against equities, and no serious read on the broader macro setup, only one recycled chart and a pile of imagination. Anyone buying into this nonsense is setting themselves up to get crushed.