Eurovisiongamble

@vangelis_vt @eurovisionbets I understand that but Finland’s score was higher than I expected. I’m coming around to Finland recently. Greece seems a lower score for a fun song.

@Eurogamble @eurovisionbets It was 115 actually and they were judging the national final performance (not even the music video). With Finland they are basically judging the final product.

If anything, this is more bad news for 🇫🇮 than good news for 🇬🇷. This is their backyard and their biggest ally! #Eurovision #Eurovision2026

@NikosV34 @enthughesed It could be higher 50-80 points. 🇫🇮 seemed quite professional like a MTV awards show. The juries appreciated that and it was more innuendo and implicit imo. 🇷🇴 seems more on the nose, I think 6th to 11th for me overall. I don’t see them coming top 5 with 280 points for now…

@Eurogamble @enthughesed I may be biased or over-optimistic, but 30-50 J points is the worst case scenario imo. I mean it's a good song guys, no reason whatsoever to be tanked this hard. If Erika Vikman scored 88 with a weaker song and a ejaculating microphone on stage, i don't see "Choke me" doing worse

Let's talk about my dark horse of the year 🇷🇴 I've been backing them heavily: -Top10 @ 4.00+ -Best Balkan @ 10+ -Outright Winner @ 160 Will they win? Probably not. But is anyone ruling out a potential Dark Side (🇫🇮'21) / We could be the same (🇹🇷'10) treatment? #Eurovision

@enthughesed @NikosV34 It will qualify, I could see the JV in the final to be 30-50 points maximum from juries that have voted for 🇷🇴 in the past. As well as juries that like alternative/rock entries. E.G. 🇲🇩 🇬🇷 🇷🇸 🇭🇷 🇲🇪 🇫🇮 🇧🇬 🇺🇦 🇮🇹 Except for 🇲🇩 there will be a mix of 1-8 points imo.

@NikosV34 I still think the sexually violent lyrics (especially from a woman) will kill it, strong chance they don't even qualify

@eurovisionbets Escbubble on YouTube has a focus group of non-ESC fans that reviews and score the entries every year. The diaspora will help Greece though further increase their PV as well.

@Eurogamble I don't know what this thing is but anything with the word bubble is self explanatory I reckon. 🇳🇴 has 🇬🇷 diaspora as well but 🇬🇷 this year is not relying in diaspora. They are playing the game as a PV Top-2 entry...

@NikosV34 My worry is the juries with the “Choke me” lyrics and the competition from the balkans this year. Need amazing staging, not sure I just Romania to do that, but we will see.

Live performance will decide its fate, but Alexandra showed in Oslo she has star quality and strong vocals. It’s been a while since 🇷🇴sent something competitive and I do worry the juries might not be kind given the controversial message but I’m not cashing out before rehearsals

@Amazing_ParaBoy @PeterZaventem I’m talking about the jury ranking regardless of the running order, I think those 4 countries will be ahead of 🇨🇿 in the JV. I could see 🇨🇿 doing top 5/6 jury score and then bottom 3 TV and qualifying, but we’ll see

@Eurogamble @PeterZaventem How will they be ahead? RO does not matter when it comes to juries. 🇩🇰 is less juries friendly. This feels like biased opinion rather than "objective" one

🇩🇰 🇦🇺 🇺🇦 in a row. EBU saying we will give u a level playing field to win the semi final. 🇳🇴 going through now imo. 🇱🇻 looks lost in the running order now, only a very high jury score could possibly safe this. Does 🇫🇷 weaken 🇨🇿 ? #Eurovision

@enthughesed True, I didn’t expect Serbia to NQ. Cyprus only became unvoteable after rehearsals. In a 15 song semi final, running order has less of an impact plus juries are less likely to be influenced by this as they ranking songs. I think Czech suffers though and potentially Latvia.

@Eurogamble I don't think the RO has that much effect tbh, if it does it is very hard to predict how. My predictions were worse last year assuming it had an effect (Cyprus, Serbia)

@PeterZaventem Czechia will struggle. Where are there guaranteed PV points coming from? Already 🇦🇺 🇩🇰 🇲🇹 🇺🇦 likely to be ahead of them in the juries. Close to the 🇦🇿 2022 path me thinks.

@Eurogamble I always thought 🇳🇴 was going to make it. It’s the typical song that has enough fans to get the points in a semi. 🇱🇻 is indeed for the jury. And for 🇨🇿 I think this is the worst possible draw. With 🇫🇷 immediately after and a strong 2nd half, this is going to be really difficult

@heppolo1 Portugal was still the top 3 most backed countries in 2017 though according to this stat. I think rehearsals may uncover a new favourite or reinforce Finland.

@Eurogamble Salvador was "only" 5th throughout March with a fave way clearer than Finland is now, so there is always some room for anomalies

Interesting stat. 2016 was the last time winner wasn’t among the top 3 most backed countries. Either this year will be similar to 2014 or 2016 where the winner is probably revealed during rehearsals. Or if Finland do win then this stat will be important imo. #Eurovision

@Barwineewindas @escbetting Israel PV will be close to Greece’s PV. Israel will decrease to 230-255 and Greece will be around there. Jury score depends on momentum during the Eurovision week.

@Eurogamble @escbetting What is the 🇬🇷 win path? 🇮🇱 will win the TV. Pretending otherwise is just wishful delusion. There's 300pts out of 🇬🇷 key pts chase b4 the start. Then add a seemingly baked in 150 or so 🇺🇦 TV. Ferto has a TV ceiling of 300-ish, max. It won't get 150 or so JVs. It simply won't.

New #Eurovision ramblings. escbetting.com/vienna-2026/eu…

@eurovisionbets @BetfairExchange @BetfairCS requesting the above post please.

@BetfairExchange can we have Eurovision 2026 markets for Top-6, Top-8,Top-12 and Semi- Finals Qualification and Top-3, Top-5? #Eurovision

@ge_aldrig_upp With good staging and a big performance but it would have to be top 5 TV in the semi final as I see low with the juries. France/Cyprus voting in the semi final will help.

@Eurogamble I am pretty sure it'll qualify nevertheless because there seems to be an endless market for songs like these. Egoistically I'd rather it NQ so that at least we get less of this trope in the next few years

Absolutely crazy to internally select a song like this the one year where you've known for MONTHS you'll have to play against the likes of Ferto 🇬🇷 and Viva, Moldova! 🇲🇩 🤦‍♂️ Only thing it'll accomplish is further diluting the "crazyparty" vote to place maybe 17th? #eurovision

@ChrisWh08370492 Televote may be concern though as Czechia doesn’t have any reliable allies and the song lacks a coherent melody. Juries should reward this, the superior of the male ballads (🇦🇱🇲🇹). Should hurt Finland (Pete) with the juries even more though they’ve shortened to 2.92 🤯

🇨🇿 : The most impressive song released but not the most competitive. Verses sound like a winner but has no chorus. Needs extremely good staging to have a chance but this is more of a 25-40 shot to me than the current teens. Poor year tho that brings this into consideration

@heppolo1 @SRenouard49769 It will be tight between the countries similar to last year. No standout jury 300+ at the moment until rehearsals

@SRenouard49769 @Eurogamble it can be 5 countries in 180-230 pts ballpark with negligible differences between them

🇸🇪 Sweden: Felicia has a well produced Scandi EDM song with incredible staging. Juries 4th to 6th. I don’t think that the song has a huge televote appeal as many people think it does at Eurovision. Lower top 10 PV maybe lower if tougher competition. #Eurovision #Melfest

@heppolo1 Juries have got France,Australia, Denmark and I’m interested in what Switzerland sends.

@Eurogamble i am more optimistic - juries 2nd-3rd, tele 5th-7th