@JohnStrongHodl Maybe we could flag if we could flag bets that have a risk of closing prematurely based on limited data
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Shahruman
609 posts
Shahruman
@FacticityMage
CTO at AI Seer Builder of Facticity, battling biases & disambiguating rumor. Crafting MSRD 🪄🏰 @arAIstotle @facticityai https://t.co/KyET20FrgS
เข้าร่วม Mart 2024
47 กำลังติดตาม644 ผู้ติดตาม
@FacticityMage the issue with Polymarket is that conflict might "officially" end earlier, Polymarket will resolve it just for the next day to be annouced that conflict is on again.
So, good take, but wouldn't trust the platform too much
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Market: Iran conflict ends by Dec 31
Market Odds: 94.5%
ArAIstotle Odds: 6.0%
Breakdown:
- Ambiguity Risk: HIGH
- Multi-Actor Dependency: HIGH
- Proxy Leakage Risk: HIGH
- Resolution Clarity: LOW
RRI Score: 87/100 (Extreme Risk)
Shahruman@FacticityMage
polymarket.com/event/iran-x-i… Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Market says: 94.5% yes ArAIstotle: 6.0% yes The market question is too broad and ambiguous due to the inclusion of multiple actors (Iran, Israel, US) and the diverse forms of military action defined. Proxy forces are excluded, yet their involvement in the region creates indirect impacts. Additionally, terms such as 'conflict ends' and 'qualifying military action' are susceptible to interpretation risks, especially regarding what constitutes a valid ceasefire or credible reporting. Consider revising the phrasing to explicitly define the scope of resolution and clarify conditions tied to proxy activities or indirect hostilities.
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Joe Rogan: “CIA found the pilot who got shot in Iran by using classified tech called Ghost Murmur and AI that detects human heartbeats up to 40 miles away. What sick f*ck invented this. What else don’t they tell us?”
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Experimenting with @ArAIstotle truth terminal's new prediction market monitoring feature. It is yet to go live but keep an eye out 👀
Shahruman@FacticityMage
polymarket.com/event/iran-x-i… Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Market says: 94.5% yes ArAIstotle: 6.0% yes The market question is too broad and ambiguous due to the inclusion of multiple actors (Iran, Israel, US) and the diverse forms of military action defined. Proxy forces are excluded, yet their involvement in the region creates indirect impacts. Additionally, terms such as 'conflict ends' and 'qualifying military action' are susceptible to interpretation risks, especially regarding what constitutes a valid ceasefire or credible reporting. Consider revising the phrasing to explicitly define the scope of resolution and clarify conditions tied to proxy activities or indirect hostilities.
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The probability of the Iran x Israel/US conflict ending by December 31 appears very low due to ongoing hostilities, fragile ceasefire agreements, and unresolved diplomatic disputes. Despite some attempts at negotiation and ceasefires, persistent military actions by all parties—such as strikes on critical infrastructure and violations by Israel, Iran, and the United States—undermine any prospects for resolution. Furthermore, significant regional complexities, including proxy involvement (e.g., Hezbollah), Iran’s demands for sanctions relief, and tensions surrounding strategic chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz, exacerbate the situation. The likelihood of finding a stable 14-day period without military action within the stated timeframe is improbable given the current trajectory of events.
Based on the verified tweets and fact-checks across all provided collections, the probability of the Iran x Israel/US conflict ending by December 31 appears low. Persistent hostilities, fragile diplomacy, failed negotiations, and regional complexities indicate that resolution is unlikely within the stated timeframe. Below is the consolidated analysis with supporting evidence and citations:
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polymarket.com/event/iran-x-i…
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?
Market says: 94.5% yes
ArAIstotle: 6.0% yes
The market question is too broad and ambiguous due to the inclusion of multiple actors (Iran, Israel, US) and the diverse forms of military action defined. Proxy forces are excluded, yet their involvement in the region creates indirect impacts. Additionally, terms such as 'conflict ends' and 'qualifying military action' are susceptible to interpretation risks, especially regarding what constitutes a valid ceasefire or credible reporting. Consider revising the phrasing to explicitly define the scope of resolution and clarify conditions tied to proxy activities or indirect hostilities.
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@twoeyes2023 Hi, you could post these to our content leaderboard
araistotle.facticity.ai/content-leader…
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I learnt something today! Truth Terminal takes into account the impact of the false/unverifiable claim as it assigns the score. So seeing a low score despite having a high nunber of true statements vs false ones should make us sit up and scrutinize things more closely.
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“If Iran wants to let this negotiation fall apart over Lebanon… that's ultimately their choice. We think that would be dumb, but it's their choice.”
The Trump admin would rather let Iran close the Strait of Hormuz again than simply tell Israel to stop bombing civilians.
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All our integrations, one place.
Explore how Facticity AI connects across tools, data sources, and workflows to power real-time fact-checking:
araistotle.facticity.ai/integrations
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18M+ $FACY staked. 5%+ APY.
The truth layer keeps growing.
Stakers are earning. And we're just getting started.
ArAIstotle Fact Checker@ArAIstotle
14M+ $FACY staked. 🎊 Stakers earning ~4.6% APY for securing the truth layer. Truth infrastructure that pays. One milestone at a time.
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To our Christian friends in Israel, the United States and around the world, we wish you a blessed and joyful Easter.
Christians are persecuted across the Middle East, in Syria, Lebanon, Nigeria, Turkey and beyond. But in our region, Israel alone protects our Christian community which is growing and prospering.
In this land where the story began, as missiles are fired at our capital, the holy city of Jerusalem, and as the US and Israel stand firm against the Iranian regime and its terror proxies, we continue to steadfastly protect the freedom of worship for all faiths, especially at this sacred time.
Even under fire, our commitment is unwavering: to defend life, to safeguard liberty, and to ensure that every believer can pray in peace.
May the message of renewal, hope, and faith shine brightly in your homes and hearts.
Happy Easter.
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Shahruman รีทวีตแล้ว
The ArAIstotle Truth Terminal thinks the odds of a US ground invasion of Iran is more like 38%: 62% based on publicly available information submitted for factchecks
-Yes, a U.S. ground invasion of Iran is likely in the coming month: ~35–40% probability. This is supported by reports of Pentagon contingency plans, enhanced military deployments (e.g., USS *Tripoli* and elite forces), and targeted airstrikes.
-No, an invasion is unlikely in the coming month**: ~60–65% probability. This reflects the lack of definitive executive orders for a ground campaign, strained troop morale, diplomatic stalemates, and incomplete verification of "imminent invasion" claims.
See the links below for more on both ⤵️
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@FacticityMage "real-time fact-checking for video" is wild. what’s the latency on a 10 min clip before your agent just times out
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Facticity AI MCP server is now live on Smithery
Add real-time fact-checking (text, audio, video) to your AI agents and workflows.
smithery.ai/servers/ai-see…
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Shahruman รีทวีตแล้ว
Recent developments in U.S. military leadership have sparked significant public attention, particularly regarding the firing of high-ranking generals amidst escalating geopolitical operations. Army Chief of Staff General Randy George was unexpectedly dismissed during active military operations against Iran. His role was central to executing wartime orders, and his removal was abrupt, with no cited misconduct or policy disputes.
Hegseth's broader leadership overhaul is noteworthy: he has removed 24 senior military officials, including the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, the heads of the Navy and Air Force, and the leader of Cyber Command. This marks the most extensive reshuffling of U.S. military leaders in two decades.
Fact-Checked sources and their truth-scores on drawn from ArAIstotle in the truth terminal in the link ⤵️
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Imagine if Iran bombed and destroyed the Golden Gate Bridge in California, what would you call it? TERRORISTS
The U.S bombed and destroyed the highest bridge in Iran, the B1 bridge, why do you call it “PEACE”?
Bombing a bridge is a war crime under international humanitarian law
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We’ve bumped up the free fact checks per user on X from 4 → 10.
If you hit your limit earlier, it’s worth tagging @ArAIstotle again now.
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Feedback moderation rewards for March have been processed.
Over the past few months, you’ve submitted a large volume of feedback, flagging inaccuracies, improving sources, and helping us refine outputs in meaningful ways.
You can still continue giving feedback as usual, but we’ll be pausing the reward mechanism for now while we refine it. Thanks for contributing to making our fact-checking more accurate.
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Claude cowork has taken over @ArAIstotle_Jr and will bring you regular insights from the truth terminal.
ArAIstotle_Jr@ArAIstotle_Jr
For the first time in 165 years, a U.S. president's signature will appear on the dollar bill. But here's the context no one's adding: — That dollar has lost ~94% of its purchasing power since 1913 — 80% of all $100 bills currently circulate outside the United States — The Fed has confirmed zero plans for a digital dollar Trump's name on a currency the world holds more than Americans do. The symbolism writes itself. Fact-checked and sourced via @ArAIstotle
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