Andrew Kinsman
3.3K posts

Andrew Kinsman
@FeverDog
International Master at chess (winner of 1997 Wrexham Grandmaster tournament). Author. Poker player. Data scientist.
London, England เข้าร่วม Mart 2013
461 กำลังติดตาม243 ผู้ติดตาม

@RyanOhioSports @tim_stebbins Yes, for Hoskins. (Heuer already took the spot that was recently vacated by Nolan Jones.)
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@tim_stebbins Do they need to open a 40 man roster spot for anyone?
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@tim_stebbins Is it CJ over Fairchild or Angel over Fairchild?
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Cleveland #Guardians 25-year-old RHP prospect Aaron Davenport will miss the 2026 season as he underwent TJ surgery today by doctor Keith Meister.
Davenport was recently named as a non-roster invite to MLB spring training this year. He was a 2021 6th Round Pick out of Hawaii.
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@CleGuardPro They would only need to wait until the second half of April to get the extra year of control, though. A couple of months is just for Super-2.
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@TrainiaxCLE I get that these are "predictions" rather than "preferences", but it will be very disappointing if Kayfus misses out to Jones.
And Messick is arguably the third-best SP, so IMHO he shouldn't be starting the season in AAA.
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@JacobsFieldRBW Valera isn't out of options according to Roster Resource (he didn't use an option last year, because he wasn't on the 40-man until he was promoted to the bigs).
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I’m not necessarily disregarding Todd’s sources entirely, but…
-George Valera is out of options
-CJ Kayfus has two months of MLB experience, and
-The organization seems to really like Nolan Jones and has guaranteed him $2M
The idea that Chase DeLauter is a near-lock to make the roster while two of these three miss the cut feels like nonsense.
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@dartistik @itsocheagain In fairness, the main event of the WSOP will be almost over by the time the darts gets underway. 90% of the WSOP "poker tourists" will be headed home by then.
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@itsocheagain Thing about the World Cup final (and poker events) is not about watching it, but flights and accommodation for this period will be skyrocketing.
And yes, people not wanting to travel to the US is political of course. But I think it's naive to suggest it's a non-issue.
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The World Cup isn’t an issue and the schedule could allow no play during it
Poker events happen in Vegas. It’s political to suggest people are “worried” about going to the US. No issues really
The key factors are clash with CDC & affordability
But it’s the same for the Americans going to Hungary
#wdf #darts
Martin Hawkins@dartistik
- Short notice - Clashing with CDC events - Clashing with the World Cup final - Clashing with poker events in Vegas - Flights and accommodation going to be off the charts A lot of people here are sceptical about even travelling to the US at the moment. Baffling decision.
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@CleGuardPro Fry hasn't hit a lick since 2024, and doesn't deserve to be a "near lock" at this point.
I'd go for both Valera (OF) and Kayfus (splitting time at 1B with Hoskins) and option Fry.
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If Rhys Hoskins (1B/DH) makes the #Guardians Opening Day roster who gets left off?
Locks:
Jose Ramirez (3B)
Steven Kwan (CF/LF)
Kyle Manzardo (1B/DH)
Brayan Rocchio (SS/2B)
Bo Naylor (C)
Near Locks:
Chase DeLauter (RF/CF)
Angel Martinez (LF/CF)
Daniel Schneemann (UTL)
Austin Hedges (C)
David Fry (C/1B)
Gabriel Arias (2B/SS)
Final spot:
Juan Brito (2B)
George Valera (LF/RF)
CJ Kayfus (1B/OF)
Nolan Jones (CF/RF)
Player that might be affected the most by Hoskins is CJ Kayfus.
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@CleGuardPro If Messick doesn't make the rotation, I think they'll just keep him stretched out in AAA. But I would definitely have him starting ahead of Cantillo or Allen myself.
FWIW I don't think Stephan has any shot. His velocity is still way down from where it was before his surgery.
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If Hunter Gaddis starts the season on the injured list who makes this #Guardians bullpen.
Locks:
RHP Cade Smith (Closer)
RHP Shawn Armstrong (Setup)
LHP Erik Sabrowski (Setup)
RHP Matt Festa (Mid Relief)
LHP Tim Herrin (Mid Relief)
Near Locks:
RHP Peyton Pallette (Mid Relief)
RHP Connor Brogdon (Mid Relief)
Final spot:
Colin Holderman (40-man)
Kolby Allard (Not on 40-man)
Pedro Avila (Not on 40-man)
Codi Heuer (Not on 40-man)
Trevor Stephan (Not on 40-man)
Another possibility is whoever doesn't win the 5th starter spot between Logan Allen and Parker Messick could pitch in relief as a long man.
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@benlivelyfan @CleGuardians If we are facing a LHP on Opening Day, yes, this is quite possibly the exact lineup.
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@DanDoesDarts @FDI_Index @dazi180turtle Sorry, championship darts isn't a lottery. If you can only win when matches are best of 11, you don't deserve to be successful in major events.
Being able to win long matches is a key skill that top players have developed & aspiring players need to develop to compete with them.
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@FeverDog @FDI_Index @dazi180turtle Didn't go unnoticed that you conveniently missed the part where the top 32 seeds only enter at the point where the format is almost twice as long. That is essentially like making the FA Cup two-legged from the third round onwards. Not like the FA Cup at all, in that respect.
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@CleGuardPro FWIW I think Schneemann and Martinez are more likely to fill out the bench than either Kayfus or Jones. To win a spot, Kayfus might well need Fry to miss out too (assuming everyone is healthy).
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@DanDoesDarts @dazi180turtle @FDI_Index And again you are repeating the same nonsense. The event is not "being advertised as random", it's just the draw itself that is random.
Hard to have a productive conversation with someone who deliberately and repeatedly misrepresents simple facts like that, so I'm out.
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@FeverDog @dazi180turtle @FDI_Index The main subject of the thread is that a large percentage of the L32 are top 32 players despite the event being advertised as being random, per the original tweet I posted
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@DanDoesDarts @dazi180turtle @FDI_Index No, I disagree with this statement at the end of David's post: "Letting everyone start in Round 1 would elevate the excitement of the event".
But I'm sure that was already perfectly clear to you, since a 256-player open draw is the main subject of this entire thread.
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@FeverDog @dazi180turtle @FDI_Index You disagree that there's small ways to improve the UK Open? Interesting...
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@DanDoesDarts @dazi180turtle @FDI_Index I disagree. There's already plenty of excitement over the whole 3 days, helped by the things like MVG vs. Asp in round 4, due to top players all joining in at the same time in a random draw.
256 players would just dilute the quality in every single round.
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@DanDoesDarts @FDI_Index @dazi180turtle The draw itself is random for every single round. Not even sure what you think "random" means in the context of this event, you just seem to be wantonly misinterpreting it.
There are plenty of things that are broken in the PDC (PL, ET etc ). The UK Open isn't one of them.
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@FeverDog @FDI_Index @dazi180turtle There's no way to interpret the fact that there's an extraordinarily high percentage of World top 32 players in the last 32, other than the format isn't as random as it is billed as. Basic maths
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@DanDoesDarts @FDI_Index @dazi180turtle Your interpretation of "result data" is simply down to personal preference, nothing else.
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@FeverDog @FDI_Index @dazi180turtle Result data suggests otherwise (taking all opinion away from it). It's pitching as one thing and delivering something different
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@DanDoesDarts @FDI_Index @dazi180turtle And there's nothing whatsoever wrong with that format for the UK Open...
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@FeverDog @FDI_Index @dazi180turtle Darts is at the point it doesn't need to gimmick itself against another sport. Should be looking to which format suits its own model best
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@dazi180turtle @DanDoesDarts @FDI_Index It's not in the "rules", but it's always worked like that and there's nothing wrong with that formula at all.
And BTW the big teams have always entered late in the FA Cup. That's not the specifuc reason for its decline at all.
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@FeverDog @DanDoesDarts @FDI_Index Where in the rules does it say that the UK Open is trying to copy the FA Cup (a competition that has famously become less and less adored by fans over the years, in part because of later entry for big money clubs) from Football?
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