Gabriel Sanson Gomez 🌍🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🇲🇽

311 posts

Gabriel Sanson Gomez 🌍🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🇲🇽 banner
Gabriel Sanson Gomez 🌍🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🇲🇽

Gabriel Sanson Gomez 🌍🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🇲🇽

@GSansonGomez

Co-Convenor @scotyounggreens | New Economy Researcher @climateeurope | Polling Data Analysis | He/Him | Views Own| 🦋 https://t.co/F4bOT2T77s

Edinburgh, Scotland เข้าร่วม Kasım 2020
506 กำลังติดตาม129 ผู้ติดตาม
The Inverness Stop - Follow for Independence!
The Inverness Stop - Follow for Independence!@InvernessTop·
@GSansonGomez That's definitely interesting and I'm partly convinced - though a lot of this is risky and might let another party in, especially given none of the MRP polling shows this. Fingers crossed though and best wishes!
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Gabriel Sanson Gomez 🌍🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🇲🇽
Gabriel Sanson Gomez 🌍🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🇲🇽@GSansonGomez·
@InvernessTop Areas with strong Green list vote will have strong const. vote. This notional list share is higher than the in the old Glasgow Kelvin, where Greens got within 15% of winning from an SNP which is now down 13% in the polling average. Edinburgh is also the SNP’s weakest region.
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The Inverness Stop - Follow for Independence!
The Inverness Stop - Follow for Independence!@InvernessTop·
@GSansonGomez That's a lot of guesswork based on the list vote alone - far from convinced that's robust. The SNP's constituency vote has fallen by 10 or so, but the Greens has not risen by the same amount. I'd say SNP safest for pro-indy and all voters vote Green in second vote.
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Gabriel Sanson Gomez 🌍🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🇲🇽
Gabriel Sanson Gomez 🌍🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🇲🇽@GSansonGomez·
@InvernessTop Because the new boundaries include strong Green areas that didn’t have a 2021 constituency candidate, the list comparison is a neater example to make the point. But more granular 2022 locals data, and list shares between constituencies all back up the BBS projection.
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Gabriel Sanson Gomez 🌍🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🇲🇽
Gabriel Sanson Gomez 🌍🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🇲🇽@GSansonGomez·
@InvernessTop The key reason for the uptick are significant boundary changes which push up the Green baseline. Comparing list shares in the old vs new boundaries makes this point well. Constituency share would start a little lower due to FPTP pressures, but the pattern would still hold.
Gabriel Sanson Gomez 🌍🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🇲🇽 tweet mediaGabriel Sanson Gomez 🌍🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🇲🇽 tweet media
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Gabriel Sanson Gomez 🌍🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🇲🇽
Gabriel Sanson Gomez 🌍🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🇲🇽@GSansonGomez·
@ramacphee5 It’s mostly due to significant boundary changes that took out loads of more Tory and LD areas, and replaced them with strongly Green areas. Even the 2021 result is somewhat deceiving, as the Green vote share dropped from 13.6% in 2016 due to anti-Tory tactical voting.
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Angus Robertson
Angus Robertson@AngusRobertson·
⚠️ Progressive and younger voters are worried about the rise of Nigel Farage and Reform UK. 🟡 I defeated the Tories in Edinburgh Central in 2021. 🗳️ To lock them and the far right out, vote SNP and Angus Robertson on May 7th.
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Staffie Dugz for Indy🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🇪🇺
Staffie Dugz for Indy🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🇪🇺@grazza62·
@GSansonGomez @ammacj Which of course, the system is designed to do. 2011 was a bizarre outcome where a constituency share of 46% (how we’d love that this year) only won 53 seats, but the list vote of 45% garnered 16 seats. I profoundly disagree with Swinney’s gamble, staking a mandate on a fluke.
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A.M.MacJ
A.M.MacJ@ammacj·
Norstat Holyrood Scottish Parliament poll, 30 Mar - 1 Apr. Seat projection from Ballot Box Scotland 👇 SNP ~ 62 Lab ~ 20 RUK ~ 14 Grn ~ 12 LD ~ 10 Con ~ 11 Pro-Indy majority, 74-55
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Gabriel Sanson Gomez 🌍🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🇲🇽
Gabriel Sanson Gomez 🌍🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🇲🇽@GSansonGomez·
@grazza62 @ammacj Fair enough, I see your reasoning. However Edinburgh EL is the SNP’s weakest region by list vote. BBS has them on 24.3% from a national average of 29.3%. Also, H&I only having 8 constituencies effectively raises the vote share needed for a list seat. Both challenging for SNP.
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Gabriel Sanson Gomez 🌍🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🇲🇽 รีทวีตแล้ว
Vote Iris Duane 💚🍉
Vote Iris Duane 💚🍉@IrisDuane·
Reminder everyone over the age of 16 is eligible to vote in May. That means EVERYONE, if you live here you can vote! Don’t forget to register 💚
Glasgow Times@Glasgow_Times

Glasgow school pupils speak as first-time voters ahead of Scottish election #Echobox=1773475695-3" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">glasgowtimes.co.uk/news/scottish-…

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Gabriel Sanson Gomez 🌍🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🇲🇽 รีทวีตแล้ว
Ipsos Scotland
Ipsos Scotland@IpsosScotland·
31% of current Labour supporters who may change their vote would consider voting for the Liberal Democrats instead. 43% of current SNP supporters who may change their vote would consider voting for the Greens.
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Scottish Greens
Scottish Greens@scottishgreens·
🚨 NEW POLL! Poll after poll has the Green vote surging ahead of May's Scottish Parliament election. Together we can build a fairer, greener, independent Scotland.
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Gabriel Sanson Gomez 🌍🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🇲🇽 รีทวีตแล้ว
YouGov
YouGov@YouGov·
Our latest voting intention (1-2 March 2026) has the Greens on their highest figure ever recorded by YouGov, significantly ahead of Labour, who are on their lowest figure to date Reform UK: 23% (-1 from 22-23 Feb) Greens: 21% (+4) Conservatives: 16% (-2) Labour: 16% (-2) Lib Dems: 14% (=)
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@InvernessTop @ramacphee5 @scribblingval @PaulaCoyscot @AngusRobertson @grazza62 @ammacj @elonmusk