
Gabe ₿ Higgins
5.5K posts

Gabe ₿ Higgins
@GabeBHiggins
Co-founder @BlockSpaces_io | Co-author @ThankGodForBTC Organizer of @TampaBayBitcoin (circa 2014) | Musician 🥁🎸 https://t.co/KUoeB2oWQ1




A few thoughts on quantum: The debate around "if" vs "when" a CRQC comes to market is a fruitless one. You won't convince either side to switch, because there is little observable progress, and the risk is there may not be until its too late. The risk a CRQC comes to market is existential if Bitcoin doesn't have a credible plan of action. Risk is probability x consequence, and even if the probability is low, the consequence is 100%. Thus any sane actor should see developing a plan as worth the effort. Arguments that Bitcoin devs are doing nothing appear to be false. Arguments that 'we're all good, do nothing' are also mistaken. Reality is in between, it's a solveable issue, folks are working on it, AND we do NOT have a credible plan yet. Rushing PQ-cryptography is a massive risk, and is the wrong approach. Not developing a credible set of BIPs, is also a mistake. Coinbase and Nic absolutely have an incentive...to protect their bags and business models, which are massively long Bitcoin. They may also have incentives which are misaligned with Bitcoin, and yet that still doesn't disqualify their opinions. Coinbase has millions of BTC folks, they are the 'longest' entity in the world. Question them yes, but assuming pure malice without considering that they are capitalists looking after their interests, is frankly retarded. I'm a Bitcoiner who is massively long the asset (holdings and business), and I try my best to adopt a reasonable middle ground opinion of things. The two extremes of 'emergency' and 'no problem' are both wrong, because they do not understand the simple equation of risk = probability x consequence. I fully support the development of PQ BIPs for Bitcoin. I very much look forward to learning about the proposals, discussing the trade-offs, and doing what little I can to form consensus, and parse the complexities. Having a plan, and not needing it, is far better than needing a plan, and not having one. The truth is in the middle, and there is little benefit to debating in the quagmire of 'will-it, won't it' ever show up. A CRQC may never show up. In that case, the plan stays in the BIP repo as copy and unmerged, but fully reviewed code. What is a totally fucked result, is if we assume a CRQC won't show up, and then it does. Don't fuck this up, the middle ground is the correct path to walk. Probability x Consequence. Small number x 100% loss == take it seriously.


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