Grain of Salt

21.9K posts

Grain of Salt banner
Grain of Salt

Grain of Salt

@GrainofSaltSF

It’s easier to challenge an idea than to change a belief. GoS, 2026

San Francisco, CA เข้าร่วม Ağustos 2012
1.3K กำลังติดตาม26.9K ผู้ติดตาม
ทวีตที่ปักหมุด
Grain of Salt
Grain of Salt@GrainofSaltSF·
Updated @Strategy Cash Reserve History. Highest Nominal amount at $2.55B, shows ability to replenish, access to capital markets and durability. 12 Month minimum dividend reserve, governance. I'm Bullish. Thanks @saylor @phongle and team.
Grain of Salt tweet media
Grain of Salt@GrainofSaltSF

Here's the Cash Reserver History for @Strategy. I am guessing that the data on Strategy website will include this info going forward(in .CSV and table form), I had to pull from the 8Ks to build my chart and table. They will probably also show affect on BPS, BTC Yield, for QTD and YTD and report it more prominently in quarterly review presentation. @Saylor

English
20
39
408
21.4K
Grain of Salt
Grain of Salt@GrainofSaltSF·
@jump_ship_bitl @Strategy Conceded. If Bitcoin appreciates at less than 3% per year and Strategy does not sell MSTR shares for cash, then in an about 30 years Strategy runs out of Bitcoin and cash. If you believe that is probable, then you would not own Bitcoin or MSTR.
Grain of Salt tweet media
English
0
0
0
77
Daniel Frank
Daniel Frank@boisechampion·
@GrainofSaltSF @medc3005 Can you do a spaces or on the next True North explain amplification in great detail. It’s still not clicking for me.
English
1
0
1
40
Grain of Salt
Grain of Salt@GrainofSaltSF·
Capital Structure Amplification goes DOWN as the price of Bitcoin goes UP. Amplification is independent of mNAV.
Grain of Salt tweet media
English
6
6
50
3.4K
Grain of Salt
Grain of Salt@GrainofSaltSF·
The Bitcoin ARR or the Breakeven ARR? If Strategy sells BTC to pay dividends, then yes, the Breakeven ARR rises because the BTC reserve is smaller. We agree. What you’re leaving out is that Strategy currently has ~$2.55B of cash (~18 months of coverage) and can also raise cash through MSTR and STRC issuance. Selling BTC is one option, not the only option. That’s why the credit page models the entire capital structure, not just the BTC reserve in isolation.
Grain of Salt tweet media
English
1
0
1
120
Jump $hip
Jump $hip@jump_ship_bitl·
@GrainofSaltSF @Strategy That % may not be wrong, but you can't sell the btc. If you sell that btc to cover the divis that ARR will rise because you have less bitcoin.
English
1
0
1
21
Grain of Salt
Grain of Salt@GrainofSaltSF·
Here's the detail. Enjoy the July 4th holiday.
Grain of Salt tweet media
English
0
1
22
1.4K
Grain of Salt
Grain of Salt@GrainofSaltSF·
@kanemcgukin @Strategy You don't believe in a balance sheet company and the long term appreciation of Bitcoin. It's ironic at that cash flowing business (hence producing fiat dollars) is the only way to acquire more Bitcoin and not capital formation through a public entity built on Bitcoin.
English
2
0
6
196
BitKane
BitKane@kanemcgukin·
I think that’s a mischaracterization of the complaint. The business model can’t fund the yield because of its cash flow. So, it has to create arbitrage from anomalies whose windows close and are smaller and smaller in nature. It can’t be included in an index because it looks, acts, operates and smells like a CEF and because of the above. Everyone knows they can use the Bitcoin to pay the dividends (assuming BTC price stays within reason). Unfortunately, through word play Strategy/Saylor painted themselves in a corner that looks almost exactly like the one the FED painted themselves into with rates, CPI, and recessions. The complaint is not the dividend coverage so much as it’s now obvious to everyone (and should have been all along) the reality of the story doesn’t match the narrative of the story. That’s the lesson. That’s what maxi’s get that BTC-TCers are looking past. That’s what Bitcoiners get that central bankers and fiat artist look past. This is the story of how sound money becomes unsound. This time on digital rails. In the end it’s the same Keynesian logic and use of derivatives we’ve seen for hundreds of years. The collateral is just digital. Not land, not gold, not natural resources or govt securities. Just arb on the back of Bitcoin’s protocol.
English
2
0
2
159
Richard Byworth ∞/21M
Richard Byworth ∞/21M@RichardByworth·
@GrainofSaltSF @BTCPrague @saylor The thing that irritates me most is they continue to have so much power in the UK. The large majority of people are completely brainwashed so this will mean many people that desperately need it will only discover it much later in its development
English
2
0
11
346
Richard Byworth ∞/21M
Richard Byworth ∞/21M@RichardByworth·
Once again the mainstream media proving that they are either completely incompetent or totally corrupted. Either way, the signal is strong: defund them, and the governments they protect. As I said at @BTCPrague: buy bitcoin for freedom go up!
English
40
30
464
19.4K
Grain of Salt
Grain of Salt@GrainofSaltSF·
@ChrisDrz @Strategy Is 8% bad leverage for Strategy? Should it Negative leverage like Strive? Since you are a real estate guy. Strategy bought bitcoin with a 92% downpayment. Strive bought Bitcoin with 100% down payment and left over ~$140M in cash.
English
2
0
2
133
Grain of Salt
Grain of Salt@GrainofSaltSF·
Hey @Strategy can have debt and negative leverage at the same time. At $61k BTC: • Current holdings: 847,363 BTC • Sell 100K BTC (12% of stack) • Remaining BTC: 747,363 BTC • Cash rises $2.55B to $8.65B • Debt remains $6.71B Result: Net debt = -$1.94B Net leverage = -4.2% The debt stays. The leverage disappears. In fact, it goes negative because cash exceeds debt. I.e. More cash than debt. Most investors don’t realize those are two different things. (Table credit: @PunterJeff) @rohanhirani_ @saylor @phong @ColeMacro @Trollstein
Grain of Salt tweet media
English
12
10
125
6.7K
Grain of Salt
Grain of Salt@GrainofSaltSF·
@RichardByworth @BTCPrague @saylor Arrogant and incompetent. FFS, Bitcoin has a 16 year track record and Strategy has 6 years this August. They are just looking foolish at this point.
English
1
0
9
349
Grain of Salt
Grain of Salt@GrainofSaltSF·
@BTCoptioneer @PunterJeff @ColeMacro @Strive This post will help you sort out the terms. x.com/GrainofSaltSF/…
Grain of Salt@GrainofSaltSF

Bitcoin Treasury Metrics (Reference Guide) The confusion comes from using the word Leverage to describe multiple different things. These metrics measure different metrics and can all be true at the same time. 1. Net Debt Leverage (Debt - Cash) / Bitcoin NAV Measures Balance Sheet Risk. @Strategy : ~8% @Strive: Negative (Debt = $0, Cash ≈ $140M) 2. EV mNAV Enterprise Value / Bitcoin NAV Enterprise Value = Equity + Debt - Cash + Preferreds Measures Valuation. Not Leverage. Not Amplification. 3. Equity mNAV Equity Value / Bitcoin NAV Measures how the market values the Common Equity relative to the Bitcoin Balance Sheet. Ignores Debt, Cash, and Preferreds. 4. Amplification Bitcoin acquired through securities that are not represented in Basic Shares Outstanding or Assumed Diluted Shares Outstanding (ADSO). $SATA $STRC Bitcoin increases. Basic Shares Outstanding does not increase. ADSO does not increase. That’s Amplification. 5. Multiplication Increased Common Shareholder Upside Participation with $MSTR $ASST. Multiplication can come from Leverage, Amplification, or both. Multiplication is the Outcome. Leverage and Amplification are Mechanisms. Why This Matters Strategy has positive Net Debt Leverage (~8%), positive Amplification, and positive Multiplication. Strive has negative Net Debt Leverage (Debt = $0, Cash ≈ $140M), positive Amplification, and positive Multiplication. Many investors assume: More Multiplication requires more Leverage. Strive demonstrates that Amplification can create Multiplication even while Net Debt Leverage is negative. That’s the distinction most people are missing.

English
0
0
5
419
Grain of Salt
Grain of Salt@GrainofSaltSF·
Most investors think leverage starts at zero. It doesn’t and @PunterJeff and @ColeMacro know this. Current @Strive balance sheet: • 19,864 BTC • $141.7M cash • $0 debt Result: • Net debt = -$141.7M • Net leverage = -11.9% Not zero. Negative. Just as oil futures once traded below zero, leverage can too. Most investors don’t realize cash > debt means leverage doesn’t disappear. It goes negative. @Trollstein this needs to be in the dashboard.
English
6
9
100
9.3K
Grain of Salt
Grain of Salt@GrainofSaltSF·
Parker, I’m not revisionist. I’m pointing out that your framework appears inconsistent. Strategy sold 704 BTC on 12/22/2022 and bought 810 BTC on 12/24/2022, increasing holdings by 106 BTC. Strategy sold 32 BTC on 5/31/2026 and bought 1,550 BTC on 6/8/2026, increasing holdings by 1,518 BTC. When discussing Strategy’s ability to fund obligations, you routinely analyze cash balances and cash runway. But Bitcoin is also an asset on the balance sheet and can be monetized if management chooses. You may disagree with selling Bitcoin. That’s a legitimate opinion. But saying Strategy cannot fund obligations from Bitcoin is different from saying it should not. The company has sold Bitcoin before. It has publicly acknowledged it could do so again. Those are facts, not opinions.
English
1
0
24
726
Parker Lewis
Parker Lewis@parkeralewis·
@GrainofSaltSF @Strategy You are backwards in your logic or at minimum a revisionist historian. Saylor has been critical of using bitcoin for payments, calling it unfortunate and controversial. Strategy can pay dividends in bitcoin or sell bitcoin but people buying goods & services is controversial?
English
8
1
34
1.9K
Jump $hip
Jump $hip@jump_ship_bitl·
@GrainofSaltSF @Strategy Hey Grain, I have heard you state that strategy can sell BTC to cover dividends and as long as btc goes up 3% per year they can do that forever. This is not correct and it's not a good look to those who understand math eveytime you stare it. Can you please correct yourself.
English
1
0
1
31
Grain of Salt
Grain of Salt@GrainofSaltSF·
@BritishHodl @Strategy The first sentence is play on the typical American political ad, where at the end the politician says, "I approve this message." Obviously they created the message.
English
1
0
8
700
Grain of Salt
Grain of Salt@GrainofSaltSF·
- Do NOT explicitly say this - Let $STRC $SATA run up to $101.00 - ATM 50:50 into Bitcoin:Cash - Keep them above $100.10 - Volatility above $100 is ok, because the economic value is above $100 - Use cash to drive @Strategy leverage to zero and @Strive to leverage negative. @saylor @ColeMacro
GIF
English
19
21
207
12.6K
Grain of Salt
Grain of Salt@GrainofSaltSF·
@awesom_o About 60% to 70% is the upper limit for amplification. Amplification drops when the price of Bitcoin goes up. So amplification, like mNAV does move.
English
0
0
3
121
Grain of Salt
Grain of Salt@GrainofSaltSF·
Bitcoin Treasury Metrics (Reference Guide) The confusion comes from using the word Leverage to describe multiple different things. These metrics measure different metrics and can all be true at the same time. 1. Net Debt Leverage (Debt - Cash) / Bitcoin NAV Measures Balance Sheet Risk. @Strategy : ~8% @Strive: Negative (Debt = $0, Cash ≈ $140M) 2. EV mNAV Enterprise Value / Bitcoin NAV Enterprise Value = Equity + Debt - Cash + Preferreds Measures Valuation. Not Leverage. Not Amplification. 3. Equity mNAV Equity Value / Bitcoin NAV Measures how the market values the Common Equity relative to the Bitcoin Balance Sheet. Ignores Debt, Cash, and Preferreds. 4. Amplification Bitcoin acquired through securities that are not represented in Basic Shares Outstanding or Assumed Diluted Shares Outstanding (ADSO). $SATA $STRC Bitcoin increases. Basic Shares Outstanding does not increase. ADSO does not increase. That’s Amplification. 5. Multiplication Increased Common Shareholder Upside Participation with $MSTR $ASST. Multiplication can come from Leverage, Amplification, or both. Multiplication is the Outcome. Leverage and Amplification are Mechanisms. Why This Matters Strategy has positive Net Debt Leverage (~8%), positive Amplification, and positive Multiplication. Strive has negative Net Debt Leverage (Debt = $0, Cash ≈ $140M), positive Amplification, and positive Multiplication. Many investors assume: More Multiplication requires more Leverage. Strive demonstrates that Amplification can create Multiplication even while Net Debt Leverage is negative. That’s the distinction most people are missing.
English
7
9
42
5.2K
Grain of Salt
Grain of Salt@GrainofSaltSF·
My $ASST mileage chart. $SATA provides the amplification. Not a prediction, not financial advice. Just my calculations on a Thursday night. @Strive
Grain of Salt tweet media
English
7
11
116
6.8K
Grain of Salt
Grain of Salt@GrainofSaltSF·
It may be obvious to you, but it is not obvious to vast major of people I speak to or even on the Strategy website. Also, Strategy effectively had no cash from Sept 2020 to Dec 2025, but when they acquired cash, it enabled STRC to really grow. This is only historical cash analysis on Strategy that exists, which I did. Snapshot metrics are on the website.
Grain of Salt tweet media
English
1
0
2
154

ค้นพบ

@jump_ship_bitl @Strategy @boisechampion @medc3005 @kanemcgukin @RichardByworth @BTCPrague @saylor