Morty

126 posts

Morty

Morty

@ItsProbablyLuck

Moonlighting as a special situations investor

เข้าร่วม Kasım 2011
420 กำลังติดตาม141 ผู้ติดตาม
Morty
Morty@ItsProbablyLuck·
> buy mutual conversion > buybacks + sale will make you rich > underperform the indices > curse conversions > bank gets taken out > strategy is amazing > buy more conversions Inspired by $FFBW which has done everything right but sell itself
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Morty
Morty@ItsProbablyLuck·
Insider purchases resume at $AFCG post earnings
Morty tweet media
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Morty
Morty@ItsProbablyLuck·
@Eumoshn3174 I would guess a significant portion of the $51m CECL reserve is for this loan although they don't break it out. I guess your point is it's all baked in?
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Morty
Morty@ItsProbablyLuck·
$AFCG bear case: the $78m Justice Grown loan (>20% of book) is in non-accrual with courts blocking foreclosure. 3rd circuit appeal hearing in March with some questions of enforceability of contracts on business violating Federal law. It is messy. However, the recent BDC conversion may allow for an equity workout ($75m business value) if AFCG prevails in court rather than a forced foreclosure ($6m alleged land value).
Morty tweet media
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Morty
Morty@ItsProbablyLuck·
NY state "benefit recapture" mechanism is infuriating. > 100% marginal tax rate at times because the new marginal rate applies to all your income. How is this real?
Morty tweet media
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Morty
Morty@ItsProbablyLuck·
$AFCG small marijuana REIT recently converted to BDC. Dropped from Russell 2000 today as a result. No Q4 dividend due to loan writedowns. P/B 0.35x, but writedowns have been shrinking book value. Resumption of dividend, rescheduling potential catalysts. I'm long
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Morty
Morty@ItsProbablyLuck·
Estimated tax payments are a great reminder to do your annual backdoor Roth and HSA contributions
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Morty
Morty@ItsProbablyLuck·
552k shares of $GLIBK go to rights holders who oversubscribed if my math is right. No common proration factor. You just have to wait and see what gets deposited in your account. Each extra share is ~$10 windfall given the current price...
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Writser
Writser@thewritser·
$ttsh is a fascinating case study. Peter Kamin seems happy to cash out small fish arbing the reverse split at $6.60 / share for a whopping $32m, much more than anticipated as per the proxy. Yet shares are now trading at half that price. Either Kamin or the market is very wrong.
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Morty
Morty@ItsProbablyLuck·
@Jweds65 Love to see it!
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Morty
Morty@ItsProbablyLuck·
Russell 2000 ETF $IWM appears to still be holding $TTSH as of 12/19, so the forced selling isn't done
Morty tweet media
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Morty
Morty@ItsProbablyLuck·
$TTSH..clear forced index selling. The valuation work is done for you in the proxy. OTC and questions around go-forward disclosure? I can live with that
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Morty
Morty@ItsProbablyLuck·
Nearly half of outstanding shares of $LNW traded today driven by heavy index selling and the stock was down... < 4%? Not the obvious trade I was expecting
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