Juan M. Villaverde

(10/10) So no, I would not have done it. For the record.

1/3 Mkts AREN'T pricing an end to the war. What mkts ARE pricing is... Oman appears to have followed Qatar in cutting a deal with Iran (reportedly involving a $6B payment), with the IRGC now issuing transit waivers that have brought Lloyds back into the market - i.e., cutting...

@usetheplanets Interesting chart! How are you drawing that?

Just a small hint regarding how I’ve been playing this game. #BTC #Bitcoin #Cycles

A Danish scientist counted bugs on the same windshield, same road, same conditions, every year for 20 years. By year 20, 80% of the insects were gone. In Germany, a group of volunteer bug scientists did something even bigger. They set traps in 63 nature reserves, not farms, protected land, and weighed everything they caught. Same traps, same method, 27 years straight. The total weight of flying bugs dropped 76%. In midsummer, when insects should be peaking, it was 82% gone. A follow-up in 2020 and 2021 checked again. No recovery. In the UK, they literally ask drivers to count splats on their license plates after a trip. The 2024 count came back 63% lower than just 2021. Three years. A 2020 study pulled together 166 surveys from 1,676 locations around the world. Land insects are disappearing at roughly 9% every ten years. Here’s where it hits your plate. About 75% of the food crops we grow depend on insects to pollinate them, everything from apples to almonds to coffee. One 2025 study modeled what a full pollinator collapse would look like: food prices jump 30%, the global economy takes a $729 billion hit, and the world loses 8% of its Vitamin A supply. Birds are already feeling it. North America has lost 2.9 billion birds since 1970. A study from just weeks ago found half of 261 bird species on the continent are now in serious decline, and the losses are speeding up in farming regions. The birds that eat insects lost 2.9 billion. The birds that don’t eat insects? They gained 26 million. That ratio tells the whole story. One of the German researchers behind the 27-year study drives a Land Rover. He says it has the aerodynamics of a refrigerator. It stays clean now.

Iranian oil has been sanctioned for many years. The 140 million barrels he is referring to are part of the "dark fleet" that has been shipping Iranian oil to Asia (mainly China) for years. Iran gets money for oil, and China buys it at a discount. So, this oil already exists in the world market. It doesn't matter who buys it, or under what scheme (sanctioned through a dark fleet or legitimate open market sale), as a barrel sold anywhere, for whatever reason, adds to world supply. To emphasize, these barrels are already part of the world supply. These barrels are not randomly floating in a tanker on some ocean (for years?), waiting for sanctions to be lifted before they can be sold and offloaded. By allowing oil to be unsanctioned, all Bessent is doing is allowing Iranian oil to be sold to places like Japan or South Korea. In other words, all he did was raise the price of Iranian oil because they now have more bidders. He just made Iran wealthier and did nothing for the price of crude oil.

I usually give Trump the benefit of the doubt when it comes to military operations. What he pulled off in Venezuela was a miracle. A hostile government was replaced with a friendly one without losing a single American soldier. Venezuela has massive oil reserves and critical minerals, and it was China’s main foothold in the Western Hemisphere. Now, they are praising Trump, sending gold to U.S. refineries, and opening up to American investment. Operation Midnight Hammer was badass. In his first term, he used targeted strikes to take out ISIS, al-Baghdadi, and Soleimani while avoiding large-scale wars. If he could reshape Iran’s leadership like Venezuela and secure control over the Strait of Hormuz, that would be a huge strategic win. But right now, it’s unclear how that happens. Some OSINT analysts say ground troop movements may already be underway. At the same time, the Pentagon has reportedly requested about $200 billion for the Iran war. Even without boots on the ground, that kind of spending signals a longer, more expensive conflict. One of Trump’s biggest selling points has always been projecting strength without dragging America into endless wars that cost lives and trillions of dollars. Qatar produces about 20% of the world’s LNG, and it reportedly lost around 17% of its export capacity for up to five years after yesterday’s attack. More strikes on energy infrastructure could drive inflation higher and shake the global economy. I hope Trump succeeds with minimal loss of life and economic damage. His track record is why I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. But I don’t want to see another prolonged ground war with heavy American casualties. I hope he finds an off-ramp long before that happens.

I have just spoken with the Emir of Qatar and President Trump following the strikes that hit gas production facilities in Iran and Qatar today. It is in our common interest to implement, without delay, a moratorium on strikes targeting civilian infrastructure, particularly energy and water supply facilities. Civilian populations and their essential needs, as well as the security of energy supplies, must be protected from military escalation.

Let's unpack this.. What if the White House has no intention of reopening the Strait of Hormuz? What if this war is really about ships & tariffs? I had a long discussion with senior DOE official yesterday on background. I can’t share any details but it’s clear everyone’s Strait of Hormuz calculus is wrong. We need to go back to the drawing boards. That's it. That's the tweet. Now a hypothetical 🧵 with my personal thoughts.

J.D. Vance's MAGA political career is over. Before I explain why, let me share a story from Chinese history. During the Three Kingdoms period, Yuan Shao was a powerful warlord in northern China. He had a strategic advisor named Tian Feng, who desperately urged Yuan Shao not to go to war with Cao Cao. Yuan Shao ignored his advice and instead threw Tian Feng in prison. As predicted, Yuan Shao was decisively defeated by Cao Cao. A jailer came to congratulate Tian Feng, saying, "Sir, you were right! The lord will surely release you later." Tian Feng replied, "No, this is the end for me. Our lord is extremely stubborn. If he had defeated Cao Cao, I might have had a chance. But now that he has lost, he will definitely have me killed—because looking at me again would only be a fresh humiliation to his pride." Tian Feng indeed was killed later. Today, Trump is Yuan Shao, and J.D. Vance is Tian Feng. Trump's failure in Iran has proven that Vance was right to oppose this war. Yet it is precisely this correctness that Trump can never accept—because acknowledging it would be an unbearable insult to his absolute sense of infallibility.

@RudyHavenstein Some people said you can’t judge based on his character, and you should focus on his policies. Well, his character determines whether he will do this polices or not. His weak character infected his polices, as expected.

“We do not seek regime change” Trump declares as he escalates his regime change war against Iran. Neocons like Graham/Bolton are cheering. To all who voted for Trump bc of his antiwar rhetoric, it’s time to realize he lied to u. Stand with me against Trump’s Iran War! #TrumpsWar

🚨 BREAKING: 🇬🇧🇺🇸🇮🇷🇮🇱 “We regarded Witkoff and Kushner as Israeli assets that dragged a president into a war he wants to get out of.” - UK national security adviser Jonathan Powell He reportedly saw Iran’s nuclear offer during negotiations as serious enough to prevent escalation. Diplomats say real progress was being made, and the proposal was “unexpectedly substantial.” Britain viewed the later strikes as premature, believing diplomacy was still working. Jonathan Powell reportedly labeled Witkoff and Kushner as Israeli assets that dragged Trump into the war. Source: The Guardian

If you’re noticing Tucker Carlson being attacked from literally every direction of the political machine. It’s because they are terrified of him running for president. Because he would win and they know it. And that’s why I’m deeply concerned for my friend Tucker Carlson and his family. These people are vicious and evil and will attempt to destroy anyone and everyone that reveals the truth.

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The biggest military operation since Iraq was planned by five people... Only a handful of officials were reportedly looped into the planning for Operation Epic Fury: Vance, Rubio, Hegseth, and Gen. Caine. That's it. Senior diplomats who manage Middle East affairs were told nothing. They found out the bombing had started from social media and news reports. The State Department didn't urge Americans to leave the region until after the war began, by which point commercial airspace was already closed and tens of thousands of Americans were stranded. Nobody planned how to evacuate U.S. citizens. Nobody solved for who would lead Iran after the strikes. Nobody had a strategy for reopening Hormuz if Iran closed it. And the officials who could have raised those questions were deliberately kept out of the room. The administration says the small circle was "by design" to allow fast decisions and prevent leaks. But speed and secrecy aren't the same as planning. The Iraq War had months of deliberation across dozens of agencies and it still went sideways. This operation just had a group chat and a gut feeling. Source: WSJ

Strait of Hormuz moves ~20 mbd of oil – roughly ~$2B/day. In Shanghai, daily trading is ~$7–8B in gold and a similar $7–8B in yuan‑oil futures.Conclusion: a non‑trivial slice of Hormuz crude could be sold for yuan and turned into gold on the SGE almost immediately. Not as deep or liquid as Treasuries, but the mechanism is there.

The cryptic announcement that Iran will allow tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz if their cargo is paid in Yuan has many problems. Unless there are more details offered, view it as propaganda and not a workable idea. --- If you're interested in why, some thoughts... No operational mechanics were explained How exactly does Iran verify what currency a cargo was paid in before granting passage? Oil trades involve a chain of counterparties — producers, traders, refiners, end buyers — often with multiple legs of financing and settlement. There's no manifest line that says "paid in yuan." Is Iran proposing to inspect banking records at the Strait? Demand SWIFT confirmations from Chinese banks? This isn't a tariff booth, it's one of the world's most complex commodity markets. There is no operational framework described because there likely isn't one. The Saudis tried exactly this in 2022, and quietly killed it When Saudi Arabia floated yuan-denominated oil sales to China, it generated huge headlines in 2022. It went nowhere. Once you collect yuan, what do you do with it? China's bond market is partially closed to foreigners, capital controls limit repatriation, and yuan-denominated assets globally are a tiny fraction of what dollar assets offer. Oil exporters need somewhere safe, liquid, and deep to park revenues. That somewhere is US Treasuries, not Chinese Yuan-denominated bonds. Chinese capital markets are not deep enough The US Treasury market trades $800B+ daily. That depth is why the dollar is the oil settlement currency, not politics, not the petrodollar agreement, but pure market structure. If every barrel transiting Hormuz (roughly 15-20 million barrels/day pre-war) suddenly needed yuan to purchase, the demand shock on a managed, partially-closed currency would be enormous. China's capital markets cannot absorb that recycling flow. A surging yuan could actually hurt China Massive forced yuan buying would likely send the currency soaring, and that's the last thing Beijing wants. China is already battling deflation. Its export sector is under tariff pressure from the US. A sharply stronger yuan erodes export competitiveness. China has spent years carefully managing a gradual appreciation of the Yuan for strategic reasons. A shock appreciation forced by an Iranian is not in Beijing's interest. There's no indication Beijing has endorsed or agreed to this plan. Further, China has carefully avoided being drawn into the military conflict. Suddenly becoming the financial clearinghouse for the Hormuz passage, with all the secondary sanctions that come with it, is exactly what Chinese banks want to avoid. China buys Iranian oil through shadow-fleet intermediaries specifically to avoid formal yuan-settlement mechanisms that would expose Chinese banks to US sanctions. ---- This reads like a trial balloon from Tehran, not a workable financial architecture. It suffers from the same structural reasons that killed the Saudi yuan-oil experiment in 2022, with the added complications of US sanctions and the absence of Chinese buy-in. The dollar's dominance in oil markets is a function of capital market depth and convertibility, not something a Strait closure can unilaterally rewrite.

@rgoodlaw 🤡

"Top Trump officials acknowledged to lawmakers during recent classified briefings that they did not plan for the possibility of Iran closing the strait in response to strikes." cnn.com/2026/03/12/pol…

If Iran allows Chinese cargoes through the Strait of Hormuz, it will break its own blockade. Iran can’t create a blockade that inflicts pain on everyone except China. That’s not how commodity markets work. Commodities like oil are fungible. The benefit China gets from a carve out doesnt stay contained in China, even if Beijing wants it to. It spreads through the entire global market. Every extra Gulf barrel China buys is one less barrel it has to buy from the rest of the world. In theory, nearly all Gulf supply could reroute through China. But the point isnt whether China literally takes every barrel. It’s that the more Gulf oil China buys, the less oil it has to buy from everyone else. And it is the act of China buying less from the rest of the world that transmits the relief globally. Trade routes change, and prices re-equilibrate. That doesnt mean prices fall all the way back to the exact pre-war price. There would still be frictions. But it would dramatically loosen the market, especially relative to the alarmist view. So Iran can’t have it both ways. It can’t maintain a blockade that economically punishes everyone else while sparing China. If China gets through at scale, China becomes the relief valve for the world. So they either keep the strait closed to everyone or the blockade breaks. China and Iran must understand this. Which means the real game for China probably isn’t securing a full scale carve out immediately. China’s leverage is highest while the threat of the blockade remains real, and prices remain elevated, and Beijing can broker from a position of maximum leverage. The moment Chinese passage opens at scale, that leverage starts to evaporate along with the scarcity premium. The US needs to understand this. If Iran wants to give China a shipping carve out, let them. It will gut the blockade and the benefits will be shared globally. If Iran lets China through, it breaks the blockade. If it keeps China out, it isolates itself from its only lifeline. Either way, the Strait is unlikely to stay closed for long…Which is why 6 month oil futures are still trading with a 7 handle.

Why don’t they just tokenize the oil in the Middle East and transport it across permissionless financial rails, thereby avoiding the Strait of Hormuz altogether

Pray that the spell breaks and the world is saved.