Luke Liem

According to Robert Pape, the chance of the US starting a ground war in Iran is over 70%. This ground war is the trap wire for the Escalation Trap to shut tight and we will be looking at a 6 month war of attrition. Economic implications will be wide spread inflation and falling asset prices. Investors should: (1) Increase cash level --> 30-40% (2) Buy US Brent (BNO) (3) Buy SPY puts to hedge their remaining US equity position.

@admcollingwood I would do what is best for the country. Work out a deal w Iran, pay reparation, militarily contain Israel, relax economic sanctions. Involve both Russia and China.

The reason he doesn't know what to do next is because he has NO good options. He is presented with a Devil's Alternative: accept a defeat that would destroy his presidency, significantly worsen the US strategic position globally, thrust the US out of the Arabian Peninsula and destroy his presidency OR a land invasion which would be massively costly and almost certainly not bring strategic victory. What would you do?

From the early stages of U.S. involvement (especially after 1964–1965 bombings), N Vietnam declared that American captives—primarily downed pilots and aircrew—were not legitimate POWs but "war criminals" engaged in an illegal war of aggression against the Vietnamese people. They argued: 1/There was no formal declaration of war. 2/U.S. bombing campaigns constituted crimes against humanity (e.g., targeting civilians, schools, hospitals). 3/They had made a reservation to Article 85 of Geneva Convention III, claiming that POWs convicted of war crimes or crimes against humanity (per Nuremberg principles) would not benefit from Convention protections. This position allowed them to refuse International Red Cross inspections, withhold full prisoner lists, and avoid granting standard POW rights like correspondence and humane treatment.

@NathanJRobinson It actually depends on this plane's mission. If the plane had execute a war crime, then the pilot may no longer qualify as a POW, and may have to stand trial as a wara criminal. So the plane's payload and what it had hit also matters in this case.

Let's be clear at the outset: If Iran holds a US pilot, that person is a prisoner of war, not a "hostage." The terminology matters and we should insist that the media use the correct language for the situation.

@d12_damage @NathanJRobinson I think the war crime issue may be the deciding factor. Captured American pilots and soldiers during Vietnam War were treated quite badly because they were bombing and killing rather indiscrimanently.

@LiemLuke @NathanJRobinson How about the fact that America hasn’t declared war affect this guy’s standing as a POW?

@posh_420 @NathanJRobinson The ground war will be starting soon. And WE will find out if WE can get our man back. I am American.

@LiemLuke @NathanJRobinson Goodluck making American stand for war crimes. We will invade and get our man back without question

The battlefield is a lot more transparent than you think. Chinese satellites are tracking flight paths and bombing runs, and these information is being collected real time. These can be traced back to the US and Israeli units. Pilots and commanders can be tracked and held responsible.

@NathanJRobinson If I were Trump and his team: 1/ Do not widen the conflict 2/ Don't lose or lose too badly 3/ Stop posting inflammatory statements that would incriminate you later

The idea is a Nuremberg trial in reverse. The US won WW2, so it set the agenda for the war crime trial. All the war criminals were on the Axis side - the losing side. If this become a much wider conflict involving the world powers - China and Russia, and if the US were to lose. Imagine the consequence. All those social media postings will end up becoming evidences.

@NathanJRobinson American politicians and commentators posting their opinons openly on social media will also be used as evidences down the road in a war crime tribunal, which can happen if this escalates into a wider conflict and the US being on the losing end.

It is important to understand that the USA may be committing war crime right now, like the Israelis in Gaza and Iran. All the photos of planes, their flight paths, payloads, etc. are being collected in real time. A pilot or commander cannot simply say "I am following order" and get off on war crime charges.

It is important to archive these photos, so that they can be used as evidence for war crimes. The key is to trace these payloads to the US and Israeli unit responsible. So keep track of the plane number and unit insignia. If there were a war crime tribunal in a later date, the tribunal would demand detail orders from these unit from the pilots up the chain to unit commanders all the way up to the US President.

BREAKING: There are growing concerns about possible war crimes committed by the U.S. Air Force in Iran. A newly released image shows a USAF F-16 on a strike mission carrying WCMD dispensers, likely loaded with BLU-91/B anti-vehicle landmines, which are part of the GATOR mine system used for area denial against mobile targets such as missile launchers. Reports indicate these munitions are being deployed around Iranian missile bases to destroy or immobilize mobile launchers. However, such weapons—especially when used over wide areas—have long raised serious humanitarian concerns due to their potential indiscriminate effects and risks to civilians. The use of air-dropped mines and cluster-type munitions in or near populated areas could raise significant legal and ethical questions under international humanitarian law. #OperationEpicFury #OperationLionsRoar

@KrepelkaJim @nxt888 I have to deal with these kinds of idiots everyday.

@nxt888 Ho chi minh was a communist first everything else 2nd. Old man was drunk on power didnt care how many people died. He could ve been like Aung San gradually negotiated. Or like Fidel Castro only declare socialism win after the revolution. Ho Chi Minh refused to wait chose war.

Rick, with respect, you just walked into Ho Chi Minh City and diagnosed it with irony. You looked at a thriving, modernizing Vietnamese city and your conclusion was: this doesn't match my understanding of what communism is supposed to look like. Something must be wrong. Something must be contradictory. It feels like a ghost of America. Let me offer a different possibility. Maybe your understanding of what communism is supposed to look like is the problem. The Vietnamese never read Marx the way Western academics read Marx, as a fixed scripture, a rigid doctrinal system with predetermined outcomes and eternal commandments. We read it the way a military strategist reads a manual: useful here, adaptable there, discard what doesn't work, keep what does, and always remember that the goal is not ideological purity. The goal is Vietnamese sovereignty. Vietnamese survival. Vietnamese self-determination. Hồ Chí Minh was not a communist in the way that makes Western cold warriors comfortable: a Moscow puppet, an ideological zealot, a man who wanted to build a copy of the Soviet Union in Southeast Asia. He was a Vietnamese nationalist who found in Marxist-Leninist organizational theory the most effective available framework for uniting a colonized people against a colonial power. The tool was communism. The project was always Vietnam. When the tool needed to be adjusted, we adjusted it. Đổi Mới happened in 1986. The Vietnamese state looked at the economic situation, made a collective assessment, and liberalized. Not because they abandoned the revolution. Because they understood that the revolution's purpose was never the economic model. It was the sovereignty. What you're calling irony, we call adaptability. What feels like contradiction to you is just evidence that we were never living inside your framework to begin with.

@KrepelkaJim @nxt888 Being an Asian American, I do not expect much from an American Caucasian dude who does not study history, math and science, and consumes only US mass media. But this Krepelka guy is just another level lower down the food chain.

@__FToni @EthanLevins2 I will gladly discuss the outcome at that time with you, yes.

@LiemLuke @EthanLevins2 Ok, we will be back in a couple of months to see how Iran won. Nit make sure you don't run away, "expert".

Why is the U.S. using F15’s? It’s 54 years old, there’s so many more advanced and stealth jets to use. I’m confused why they are using such ancient jets.

@__FToni @EthanLevins2 In my dealings on these kind of subjects, there are the C-D students who read an article and do not have the basic knowledge to understand it; then there are the A students who think they are too smart to even read it. I find it a waste of time dealing with both groups.

@LiemLuke @EthanLevins2 Again, this doesn't answer the question. Also, Iran is not attacking US ships because they are not able to hit them and a direct attack on an aircraft carrier would mean the end of Iran.

@__FToni @EthanLevins2 Either you don't get it, or you have not even spent the time studying these 2 articles, I do not want to waste time discussing this any further.

@MonitorX99800 And most of these JASSM-ER have been wasted on hitting inflatable decoys.

🇺🇸🇮🇷⚡️– Bloomberg reports that U.S. has used almost its entire stock of JASSM-ER stealth cruise missiles against Iran, drawing even from reserves allocated for other operations such as a potential conflict with China. Out of the total 2,300 before the war only arround 425 would remain globally.

I believe you are overthinking things. Robots, in the form of vacuum cleaners and lawn mowers with LIDAR, are already useful. Hesai just announced that it has secured orders from lawn mower clients including Dreame and MOVA, of over 10 million LiDAR units. These robots you are engineering on the other hand are too complicated and can not be commercialized at this moment.

@EchoWhiskey12 @DocAtCDI @EthanLevins2 When EchoWhiskey cannot win an argument, he hit the bottles (whiskey???) and tell everyone to go back to their own country and stop bothering him with his alcohol. 🤣🤣🤣 We are done here... no use arguing with an idiot, at first I thought you know something I don't.

I believe you are arguing policy, in any case you don't know what you are talking about In Afghanistan and Iraq we were able to deploy Starbucks and Burger King. In terms of combat operations we decimated the Taliban and Iraqi army at the onset - what you are talking about is our strategic objectives and yeah our leaders failed US and their respective populaces by fucking up the post invasion rebuild And in vietnam, NVA kia were 1.1 million to 58k US kia that's quite a stark difference Unlike the Muslims or the Communists that we have to fight, we don't have a convert or die mentality So please, if you're so disgusted by America, boycott American - please I beg all the people that aren't satisfied with us, Go Home and stop taking our money, don't come here. I know I sure as hell don't want to set foot in China and I certainly don't want to take ChiCom money

@EchoWhiskey12 @DocAtCDI @EthanLevins2 Mmm... Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, we are doing great here. 😂🤣

who says I really like the F35? there are many things that I dislike about the f35 program but it's factually true that the only thing that is better on this planet than the f35 is the F22 as far as US weapons systems, yes they are the best on the planet, I have yet to see any empirical evidence of anyone else able to stop us Chinese/Russian Air defense/radar hasn't stopped any of our platforms be it F18, F16, F35, F22, B2, B1B, B52 We are the only nation on earth that can fight anywhere anytime in Multi Domain Operations - no one else can do that.