Luke Liem

I think the US is going to start a ground war. It will not end well...

@PressSec You know it is April Fool's Day tomorrow, right? Right?

TUNE IN: Tomorrow night at 9PM ET, President Trump will give an Address to the Nation to provide an important update on Iran.

@Tinu19759065190 @gonglei89 I agree with you. This is the most logical move for Iran, and they are not too far off - maybe 6 months to 1 year.

@gonglei89 Agreed. Iran needs Nuclear weapons

What makes you think Iran would consider being armed with Chinese weapons sufficient deterrence?

@AmiDaniel1 Put it another way, 20M barrels of oil pass thru the Strait everydau at $100 per barrel. If Iran put in place a toll of $1-2/b, this would give the IRGC $20-40M per day or $7-15B a year in revenue. This can be used to fund their nuclear weapon and bunker buster missile programs.

I'm going to take a risk here. And ask the BIG question: What if the situation in the Straits of Hormuz ain't going back to what it was? What if the Iranian "Toll Booth " is there to stay? First, some math: - According to today's freight prices, a VLCC goes for approximately 700k per day (10x what it was) . For a 30 day AG -- China voyage- that's $21m. - Throw on top of that 1-3% of hull value (yes you can buy insurance , it's harder but doable) - -that's another 3m or so. - Cargo value would be 2 million barrels * 120USD = =$240M. So the overall deal is $240M+ $21M + $3M + [IRANIAN TOLL BOOTH CHARGE $2M] = $266M USD. Out of which less than 1% is for Iran. I think many charterers and shipping companies will end up paying that, just like they paid the Houthis or they pay the Suez Canal in a very ROI driven analysis as an alternative to going around the Cape of Good Hope. So what's the way out? I think we've all learned a lesson in resilience. The Straits of Hormuz are structurally not resilient. So what should the world do? 1. Double down on Yanbu. Grow the pipe from 5m barrels a day to 7m and later to more. Maybe build another pipe to West Coast Red Sea. 2. Fujairah as an export hub has really been on a tear with approximately 1.8m barrels. I assume the UAE can scale that more. 3. Oman and Salalah- we've reported that actually Oman has been the great benefactor of all of this situation, with 3000%+ more vessels on the way. Despite a crane being hit by a drone and things slowing down a bit. These are sure-fire ways to make the world's supply chains more resilient. We can't all depend on one small straits, or we might end up with a very long show of the Dire Straits. [Image: @WindwardAI data shows the vessel "Al Salimi" hit within the E Anchorage off Dubai, where you have approximately 49 other 250m + vessels waiting]

@policytensor The Chinese are not so dumb as to clean up the mess Trump and the Israelis created in the first place. China is not world's garbage man.

Will the damn Chinese step the fuck up? Only China can provide the security guarantee to Iran. What use is all this power if you’re simply unwilling to use it for the production of global public goods? Can China graduate from being a consumer of international order to a producer of it? It is Chinese cowardice that this dragging the world into a great depression. “Iran’s president reiterated that his country was open to ending the war, but only if it receives “guarantees” that US-Israeli aggression will not be repeated.”

@shahpas OK. Points taken.

@LiemLuke And you are most welcome to follow the other accounts if that is your preference. I reread my post after I saw the first comment. The third part could have been broken up (edits are no longer possible), but if I lost you before that, then perhaps you are not my target audience.

🇮🇷🇬🇧🇺🇸 Beyond failing to deter the American and Israeli surprise attack, Iran has failed to fully deter the United Kingdom from getting involved in this war. This likely reflects, in no small part, the UK's recent withdrawal of naval forces from Bahrain and the Persian Gulf, where the UK hitherto maintained a decades-long sustained naval presence. Without lucrative British targets and British military personnel to hold at risk and subject to attack, Iran is facing a situation in which, among many other things, American B-52 and B-1 bombers are operating out of RAF Fairford airbase to undertake shorter-duration strike missions in which cruise missiles and bombs are used to attack targets in Iran.

@shahpas There are many other X contributors on the same subject matter. I am just making a suggestion that you write in a more concise and direct manner.

@LiemLuke Well, you and the other person are not following my account and are not paying me for any of this.

@SangaraDuba @shahpas That is what I told him. His writing is too convoluted.

@shahpas you write strange things

@DefensePolitics They are in the tunnels and the underground bunkers, you idiot.

Wow... i seeing thousands of IRGC fighters in this video~

@gbrew24 You are very naiive, and you actually work for the Eurasia Group? You should watch Robert Pape's latest interview: youtu.be/bFitK75b9CE?si…

It can now be determined that both United States and Iran probably want this war to end...on terms that they find acceptable. The first part doesn't require much effort. War is bad. Let's end it. The second part will require some effort and likely some concessions from at least one party. So it becomes a question: who concedes first: Iran or Trump?

@intelFromBrian I agree with you 100%. The right thing to do is to continue to buy BNO (US Brent Fund) and sell stocks on the temporary euphoria.

This is driving me INSANE: 1) Iranian President doesn’t matter. His words don’t matter. He has NO say. 2) he said the words YESTERDAY. 3) the guarentees are the same as day ONE. 4) the strait of Hormuz is still closed. 5) there was less than 10 ships that went through the strait today. And they were all either Chinese ships or ships that paid the premium 6) oil going down 2% is NOT crashing. 7) the stock market will give back its gains tomorrow when the idiots realize that it went up on BS.

@silvertrade Note that the source is Israel's Channel 14, so unless there is a posting of the recording of the meeting, I would treat this as misinformation. The stock market will most likely fall again tomorrow.

🚨Apparently the entire market forgets that JUST YESTERDAY‼️, THE IRGC TOLD PEZESHKIAN THAT HE CAN'T BE INVOLVED IN CEASEFIRE TALKS‼️ President Pezeshkian: “I want to be involved in the negotiations with the U.S. Without a quick deal, our entire economy will collapse in 3 weeks.” IRGC chief Vahidi: “That’s exactly why you can’t be involved. You’ll give up everything for a deal.” After the call ended, the report says the Iranian president told his companions he feels like a ‘hostage’, “I’m unable to resign, I cannot make my own decisions, all I can do is read from a script I’m given” -Channel 14 ⚠️The entire market is RAMPING on a headline from a guy who just yesterday reportedly said he's an IRGC HOSTAGE WHO CANNOT MAKE HIS OWN DECISIONS⚠️

@gemoscatelli @gbrew24 Exactly, Pezeshkian can say what he like but he had always been put in his place later on (e.g. his apologies to the Gulf States a few weeks ago). Iran's mosaic defense structure mandates that IRGC commanders, not the Iranian president, are in charge.

@gbrew24 Iran's President does not have any political power

Pezeshkian has called for the conflict to end. He has consistently taken the less warlike stance (befitting his role as head of the civilian govt, and his general profile as a somewhat squishy reformist). But note the second part (which matters much more) and gets to Iran's entire strategy. This war only ends when the cost to the US has been deemed sufficient. And it ends via US de-escalation. Iran will not be backing down.

@gbrew24 Iran's mosaic defense structure mandates that IRGC commanders, not the Iranian president, are in charge. Pezeshkian can say what he likes but he had always been put back in his place later on (e.g. his apologies to the Gulf States a few weeks ago).

@dimkovska88 @spectatorindex Ducks that cannot fly...

@dimkovska88 @spectatorindex The Persian Gulf is a no-go zone for these carriers. It will be like hunting ducks in a pond.

BREAKING: Aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush and its accompanying warships are deploying to the Middle East, making it the third US aircraft carrier in the region, according to Wall Street Journal.

@dimkovska88 @spectatorindex These aircraft carriers will be parked 750km from Iranian coast lines because they are afraid of being hit by Iranian missiles and drones. It complicates the logistics of US strategic bombing and air support for US ground troops, should there be a ground invasion.

Listen to the Iranians instead of Trump to take advantage of short term market swings. Per Robert pape, with respect to possible ground war and its long term market implications, watch US troop movements and signs that they are hardening infrastructure for troop accumulation in the regions - Kuwait, UAE, etc.