Logan Phillips

@Im_Rex_the_Dino Great question. CA voters have proven to be really good at strategic voting. I think they will coalesce around the Democrats that have the best shot at winning, and one will clear the second Republican, likely with a lot of room to spare

@LoganR2WH I noticed that in your California gubernatorial race, you have the two republicans leading the polls, but on your state's interactive map, you have Swalwell as a huge favorite. Just curious how you see that? Big fan btw.

Today I built a new primary polling page for the California Governor race at RacetotheWH, which includes a special average showing who is leading with voters by party, race and region. I think you'll enjoy it! racetothewh.com/governor/calif…

@SpecialPuppy1 2. Special Elections are already part of my national projection - and they'll become much more heavily weighted after the CA primaries.

@SpecialPuppy1 Compared to the other sites with ratings out for House races, I'm usually more bullish on Democrats. We'll probably see Dems chances improve after two things happen: 1. If Dems win the VA referendum, their chances will spike to over 70% (Continued)

@LoganR2WH I’m kind of curious why your model is significantly less bullish on Democrats taking the house than prediction markets?

I think this is a big mistake - and learning the wrong lessons from 2020. We have so much evidence from tens of thousands of past elections that proves nonwhite candidates and women win just as much as men. Have we already forgotten that Barack Obama won twice?

@benwfreeman1 I think it's almost certain Cornyn would do better in the general election. Cornyn always overperforms other candidates in the Republican party, while Paxton usually does 2-3% worse. And that's before Paxton was impeached for his corruption scandal.

This is a really interesting market because if you compare it to the overall Texas Republican Senate Primary market and the Texas Senate Winner market, you can back out whether Cornyn or Paxton is more electable in a general election. Right now, the markets say Cornyn…

@JayElfhorn @gelliottmorris It's only 25% of the Harris voters that specifically said they regret their vote, not 25% of all Harris voters.

@gelliottmorris I find it REALLY hard to believe that 25% of 2024 Harris voters would switch to Trump! I call BS.

Our new poll finds 1 out of 8 Trump voters regrets how they voted in 2024, and Harris would win a hypothetical redo by almost 3 points gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-03-27-b…

US Senate Michigan Democratic primary polling average from @RacetotheWH (3/25/2026) 🟦Mallory McMorrow 24.8% 🟦Haley Stevens 22.7% 🟦Abdul El-Sayed 21.5%

Donald Trump’s approval rating is falling again, after a brief respite following the start of the Iran war. Today, it dropped to a second-term low of 39.4%.

"Track AIPAC" has truly lost the plot. AIPAC has already spent money on TV ads attacking Jon Ossoff - because he was the only swing-state Senator that voted to withhold billions of dollars in offensive weapons sales for Israel's bombing campaign in Gaza.

@LyftLady11 A NH or Iowa win gets you in the race. South Carolina gives you a mega-boost heading into Super Tuesday. But all of this could change depending on the new order of states.

@LoganR2WH KEY FACT - >The last 3 Dem presidents all LOST the NH primary. Carter was last to win it 50 years ago. The last 4 Dem presidents all WON the SC primary. Ad Clyburn boasts, SC picks future presidents.

Pete Buttigieg almost won New Hampshire in 2020 - and voters seem to like him even more now. He has led all five 2028 New Hampshire primary polls.

Thanks Eric! Such a fun random coincidence too! We will have to do it again soon!

@AnimalsRockOn She did an incredible job.

@LoganR2WH Stratton knocked it out of the park. You were right when you said she was surging

Final Prediction for the Illinois Senate Race: Stratton is surging in the final days of the election - but Krishnamoorthi is still a slight favorite. Projected Vote: Raja K. 38.4%, Stratton 35.5%, Kelly 18.0% Chance to Win: Raja K. 59.4%, Stratton 40.3%, Kelly 0.3%

@RussianBerner I'm really interested in the race but I don't have a prediction for it. I haven't built a primary forecast for House races.

@LoganR2WH What about the House races ??!! Any predictions ? 😊🙏 Biss vs Kat Abu ??

@forcesubtractor @RacetotheWH Yep, no incumbent

@LoganR2WH @RacetotheWH no incumbent here?

Final note - if you were on twitter 15 minutes earlier, you may have seen my first predictin - which I deleted 2 minutes later. That's because a last second poll was released by Victory Research, so I had to re-run my forecast one more time.

I do my best to capture this, and include a momentum factor in my forecast. (For those new to my primary forecast, they include polling, fundraising, endorsements, google searches, and political experience. Then I sim the race 2,000 times).

@Thorongil16 @ZacharyDonnini @The0_o7 This is so interesting Armin! Great work!