MSTR Prophet

@WeaponXBT @dominickolas1 @stonychambers Thank you for that clarification. You are correct. That will be a real scenario as MSTR rises above $1,000 per share I believe as that is when the 10:1 convert comes into play. Good catch!

$STRK is in fact callable. If too many people convert to MSTR shares and the outstanding STRK is less than 25% of original issuance, the company can call all the shares back and retire the product, in which case holders of the product did very well. And they’d probably just release a new version of STRK

$STRK is now the most undervalued and versatile security in the capital stack In the filing for its new 21-21 plan, Strategy cut the STRK ATM to $2.1 billion and cut the cap on STRK shares outstanding. Basically, the old STRK ATM was moved over to $STRC. Recall that STRK was an attempt to lengthen the duration of convertible bonds. This of course did not work, because the conversion is not at a fixed price but at a fixed ratio of STRK shares to MSTR shares. In Jan 2025, the plan was to make STRK the main funding vehicle, because prior to that the converts were the main funding vehicle. Today the plan is to make STRC the main funding vehicle. In the process, STRK has been heavily discounted by the market. No one talks about it anymore and the perception seems to be that STRC's seniority is really damaging to STRK's valuation. This is just one reason why it is undervalued. The other is that STRK is now comfortably in the high yield + potential price appreciation camp. There's three ways to win with STRK: 1. $MSTR outperforms and brings STRK up by the conversion option 2. The market reprices the credit spread of the fixed rate prefs. This makes the dividend stream worth more. 3. Hold and earn the >10% tax deferred yield. Retain margin of safety. MSTR takes all the risk and the dilution. It takes all the flak when things go wrong. STRC has no price appreciation, has de-peg tail risk, and has imminent risk of future dividend cuts. Also consider that STRC's long term success means the dividend per share is guaranteed to come down. STRK is a very happy middle ground. And right now very underappreciated.

It is not callable. It is perpetual. In other words, they cannot “cancel” it. The only way the $100 par repayment comes into play is if the company is liquidated via bankruptcy. If that happens, the STRK holders are paid only after Convertable debt, STRF, and STRC are paid out fully. STRK is an investment with both yield and potential capital gain via price appreciation. STRF is an investment for those seeking fixed income, but not on a large scale STRC is an investment that does not allow growth of the capital, but generates a yield paid monthly STRD is an option investment for those that purely want yield and can tolerate capital value fluctuations.

@stonychambers Correct me if I am wrong but I think you're missing one other factor. If MSTR ever cancels STRK they would pay you off at par value.

@BTCExodus Everyone will own Bitcoin at the price that they deserve.

One of the leading investment educators and influencers in my country keeps saying crypto is pure speculation. The worst part is that he throws Bitcoin into the same bucket as everything else. He was on a podcast again and claimed: “You are guaranteed to lose money with crypto.” He even said that even if you had invested early in Bitcoin, you might have “gotten lucky” with that one, but most likely you would have lost money - because you would have “invested in other shits too.” And the way he ended it was completely predictable: “I don’t spend my energy on this crypto stuff, and I don’t have time to think about investing in this coin or that coin.” He doesn’t understand #Bitcoin. Worse - he has no interest in trying to understand it or learning about its actual role in the global economy.

In my humble opinion, your $500 billion market cap target in five years is way too conservative. STRC issuance will likely be between five and $10 billion a month inside the next six months. The size of these bitcoin purchases are becoming material to the price of bitcoin. I see Strategy‘s market cap being closer to 2 trillion in five years conservatively.

My Bitcoin & Digital Credit discussion with Gary Gill. 0:00 - $BTC Explained 6:40 - @Strategy and $MSTR Explained 12:18 - Deep dive on $STRC and Digital Credit 53:20 - Future of Strategy

@AdamBLiv @_BTCStrategist Yup. Particularly right now.

@_BTCStrategist Lump sum into MSTR would be better if goal is growth

For those of you who are using STRC dividends solely to buy Bitcoin… What are you doing?! Just buy Bitcoin.

STRC will push Bitcoin into an Exponential - STRC trading volume decouples from MSTR, IBIT, & Bitcoin. - STRC's Shelf Registration and ATM are novel. All other variable rate prefs have been benchmarked to SOFR. Strategy's unlock was letting the market set STRC's interest rate. - SPY Risk > STRC Risk? - Leveraged STRC is the high performance application. - Leveraged STRC will breed the STRC PUT market. - Selling STRC Puts gives anyone access to institutional leverage.

@rmtswank @CrisReed I think so. 11.25 has been a success in attracting initial capital in creating some momentum in volume. I would expect it to be a little closer to 10% by the end of the year due to outstanding liquidity levels being achieved. But who knows?

@CrisReed It will stay at 11.5%. Why would they raise it given the VWAP of 99.95 and insanely high volume? I think we’ll see it lowered later this year.

STRC Dividend Rate Mechanics Really interested to see if they raise another 25 bps next month

@2023bitcoiner @TeddyBitcoins @Strategy Yup. That tracks.

@TeddyBitcoins @Strategy Based on the Math, I am guessing 35K at most.

A lot of people saying they think @Strategy is going to announce 50,000+ bitcoin buy tomorrow. I give it less than 5% likelihood. If they do we have reached a point where BTC price is being held up almost entirely by strategy.

@tadtweets Run the same question about Nvidia and Google. Would be an interesting data point for comparison

👀 “Using your best model, estimate the % chance $BTC is worthless in five years” Claude: 2-3% ChatGPT: ~3% Gemini: <1% SuperGrok: 5% “Same question for $MSTR “ Claude: 8-12% ChatGPT: 6-8% Gemini: 3-5% SuperGrok: 15% Whether cult or Ponzi, four AIs said worst case was 15%⁉️

@CrisReed Nice work Chris. This video helps explain STRC. The STRC carry trade is force multiplier for Strategy.

Yen Carry Unwinding - STRC Carry Loading…

@stockninja4720 @laenkered72 @maxkeiser Common stock ATM issuance. Hence ROC tax treatment.

@MSTR_Prophet @laenkered72 @maxkeiser How do they pay the dividend?

Jamie Dimon can lobby Congress all he wants to try and stop yield-bearing stablecoins from entering the market, but he can’t stop THE REAL YIELD ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM. $STRC

This was the demand for $STRC on @roxom this week. Although we could serve most of them, we are yet to be available in all regions. Insane how the entire world has been buying or wanting to buy $STRC on the paltform.

Agreed. But only the fiat capital that is buying STRC at a price of 100.01 or higher. Everything bought below that value is recycling fiat in the open market and not into BTC. What a great concept though. Converting the capital gain of Bitcoin into a fixed yield of fiat. Amazing product and design. STRC will change the world.

@d_1awrence $STRC works like a one way valve where capital flows in, converts to BTC, and never comes back. There is no redemption mechanism. No maturity date. No unwind. Every dollar that enters STRC exits the fiat system permanently. The scariest part is that this valve only opens wider.

Every 210,000 Bitcoin that #MSTR buys, it eliminates 1% of the total Bitcoin supply that can ever be purchased, forever. This generally wouldn't be entertained as a genuine thought, due to the sheer scale of capital required & the time it would take for them to obtain that amount of Bitcoin. There's a strong chance they've obtained 30,000+ Bitcoin this week alone. At this run rate, they would be absorbing 1% of the entire network every 7 WEEKS! But here's where it starts to get really crazy.... There's $156 Trillion in the fixed income market - that's the capital that $STRC is targeting - not $1000 deposits form your uncle Steve. Real, large, institutional capital. The size & volume of capital that's been spoken about for years, but has always felt decades away. It's coming. Not in 5 years. Right now. If the volume of capital running through $STRC increases by 1000x, it would capture just 1% of that fixed income market. Take a moment to really think about that. I daren't predict how much Bitcoin they're going to accumulate this year, but it's going to be A LOT. And yet, despite this knowledge, there are STILL people saying that their purchases will have no influence on the Bitcoin price! At this point it's impossible to not. The game has changed forever. Saylor has been playing 4D chess for years and most people are still trying to learn the rules for checkers. Strategy will become the most valuable company in the world. Bitcoin is going to absorb everything. You really are not bullish enough!

Different use cases. If you want be able to keep your capital exactly at the same level with a great yield, STRC. We use it in our business as a place to park our cash temporarily. STRF is if you want stable income and are planning to park the capital long term. It is not easy to get your capital out of STRF quickly due to the low liquidity Over the very long run, STRF will likely out perform STRC because the price will increase. STRC will drop its dividend yield as adoption picks up. A few years from now, it will likely be at 8%. The yield is just high right now while they attract initial capital.

@maxkeiser Why $STRC instead of $STRF? It has a tad more protection for practically the same return.

@CrisReed I see a $5b STRC week in our not so distant future

@CrisReed I am thinking 35,000 BTC purchased. 12k with STRC funds and 23k with common ATM funds. Just a SWAG.

We’re going to have to a lot of shocked people come Monday imo

@LizardWizardBTC I agree that it hasn’t mattered much so far. STRC is changing that though. I see weekly buys of $100k bitcoin on the horizon if STRC continues the rate of adoption.

Last week, Strategy spent an average of 170M per day buying Bitcoin. Given that Bitcoin's trading volume is ~50B a day, that's roughly 0.2% of daily volume. Pretty small.

I really like Saylor’s analogy of refined petroleum products versus crude oil. I think of bitcoin as the crude oil and I think of STRC, and MSTR stock as different types of refined products. I like to hold a little bit of all of it. I have a little bit of the crude oil, but I also have the majority in gasoline and kerosene. I see more value long term with what Strategy is doing with Bitcoin than what I would do with it as a HODLer. Not saying it is right. It is just how I have structured my investments.

Would you guys count your $BTCI and $IBIT in your personal Bitcoin strategic reserve? I know many will think this is ridiculous but I could see an argument for it

I would agree with that perspective as a US citizen living in the United States If you live in other countries, then there’s a definite case to be made for a local treasury entity to form and acquire STRC and then re-issue locally at a reduced yield as their own wrapped product, taking a cut between the distributed yield and what Strategy is putting out as the dividend on STRC That effectively makes a force multiplier with these DAT companies in other countries.

Only Strategy can do it in practice... Why you would buy other lesser digital credit other than $STRC? It's like buying Argentine pesos over U.S. Dollars. That's why I am 100% Strategy not diversify my money towards other BTCTCs. Strategy won. The rest eat breadcrumbs.