MacroMatrix

Final kongu region Claude model predicts DMK - 7 NDA- 18 TVK-4 More than 6-8 seats can go for toss to other party., Most of the seats are very close fight. #TVKVijay‌HQ #DMK #ADMK #BJP #TNElection2026

Today’s Vijay speech in Perambur he mentioned GenZ and youngster. Even my Claude model shows that he is gaining more vote share in younger section. If younger section turn out comes more for this election, little 2-3% can swing some seats to TVK favour in urban cities. He knows his data where vote is coming from. @TVKVijayHQ #TVK #TVKVijay‌HQ

@kadhirvelavan @TVKVijayHQ Tight race DMK edges. It will be tough fight. Vote splitting helping DMK.

@MacroMatrix1 @TVKVijayHQ What about Armstrong wife constituency. Thiru.vika nagar

Madurai final Claude model verdict in 12 seats DMK - 8 NDA - 2 Remanning two it is toss it will go either TVK or NDA. DMK voter will decide that seats winner. @TVKVijayHQ #TVKVijay‌HQ #DMK #NDA #BJP #ADMK

Andipatti model predict DMK comfortable win. TVK is coming second in this seat. Again vote splitting helping DMK. #TVKVijay‌HQ #DMK #BJP #ADMK

Periyakulam model predict it is three way fight and DMK wins due to vote splitting. #TVKVijay‌ #DMK #ADMK #BJP #TVKVijay‌HQ

Bodinayakanur model predicts DMK wins with comfortable margin. #TVKVijay‌ #TVKVijay‌HQ #DMK #ADMK #BJP

Usilampatti Claude model predicts DMK wins. Seat changes from ADMK to DMK. Model acknowledge OPS halo effect is uncertain. Rural welfare benefit from DMK scores. #TVKVijay‌HQ #DMK #ADMK #BJP #OPS #Madurai

Melur Claude model predicts NDA wins. ADMK 25 years fortress it will be difficult to break. DMK never won here in last 10 election. Claude acknowledge TVK Veeran candidate locally resonate but not enough to win the seats. ADMK most safest seat in Madurai. #TVKVijay‌HQ #DMK #ADMK #BJP #Madurai

1. Why ML won’t work here: ∙TVK has ZERO electoral history no training data exists ∙You cannot train a supervised model without a target variable ∙Only 2 elections (2016, 2021) with current boundaries ∙not all constituency-level survey data exists to train on 2. What we actually built: ∙A vote transfer model — tracks where 2021 voters go in 2026 ∙DMK retains ~82% of 2021 vote, loses youth to TVK ∙AIADMK 2021 vote splits: ~55% stays NDA, ~10% goes TVK, ~5% goes DMK ∙MNM 2021 vote (~9.5% avg) transfers ~80% to TVK — this is TVK’s readymade base ∙New voters from turnout increase (60%→80%) split ~60% TVK, 25% DMK, 10% NDA 3. Data sources (all real, publicly verifiable): ∙2021 + 2016 ECI results for all 234 constituencies ∙CEO TN official district age-cohort data (38 districts × 8 age brackets) ∙50 independent vox pop sources totaling ~6,20,000 ground respondents ∙All candidate lists (DMK 164, AIADMK 169, BJP 27, TVK 234, NTK 234) ∙Alliance seat-sharing with transfer efficiency modeled per-party 4. What makes this model unique: ∙District-level age demography weighted by turnout assumptions (80%+ all ages) ∙Alliance transfer correction — when BJP/PMK/AMMK contests instead of AIADMK, NDA loses 3-8% ∙Star candidate personal vote adjustments calibrated from 2021 margins ∙Every seat has unique numbers no regional averaging 5. Validation approach: ∙Backtested against MNM 2021 as a new-party proxy — model correctly predicts MNM ~10% urban, ~3% rural, 0 seats ∙Cross-checked against all formal surveys and 50 vox pop independent sources ∙Two completely different methods (vote transfer model vs district-age-turnout model) converge on same result. This is Claude response of its model. It back tested this model against new entrant in TN election.

@MacroMatrix1 @TVKVijayHQ Noted, will check. You can pin it

Thiruparankundram most awaiting seat in Madurai. Claude model predicts NDA wins. ADMK fielded strong candidate in that area. It will be tough fight between NDA & TVK. DMK going to be spolier for both. #TVKVijay‌HQ #BJP #ADMK #DMK #NDA @TVKVijayHQ

@kadhirvelavan @TVKVijayHQ I have replied to many replies bro. It is very long answer from Claude. Just check my replies if you not found i will copy paste it.

@MacroMatrix1 @TVKVijayHQ How does this Claude AI predict these results.

@mersal07 I don’t think he knows what is predictive model means. Just leave it bro.

@BalaMuruga85643 @MacroMatrix1 Lusu athu model da 😂

Gobichettipalayam Claude model predicting TVK will wins. After Singanallur keep an eye on this seat. Vote splitting helping TVK here. But it will be very tough seat to win for all three party. #TVKVijay‌ #TVKVijay‌HQ #DMK #BJP #ADMK

@hari_2697 @LeoTweets07 I have posted in my timeline. Tough fight can’t decide slight edge to NDA. Balaji will be spolier for both NDA & TVk.

@MacroMatrix1 @LeoTweets07 Coimbatore south please

Another surprise in Singanallur Claude model is predicting TVK wins. #TVK #TVKVijay‌HQ #DMK #ADMK #BJP #NDA

Sholavandan Claude model predicts DMK comfortable win. Again vote splitting helping DMK. Watch out for candidate profile by every party. How ground level every party will field the candidates in every region. This Claude model analysis will give good picture on micro level in every seats. #TVKVijay‌HQ #DMKCampaign #BJP #ADMK #NDA

Madurai West I will re run the model. Apologies 🙏

@BalajiGeek Thanks I will check

@MacroMatrix1 Is it latest update? I thought he is contesting.

@cosmicholy5 I have already done that. May be once I finished all region. I can run again.

@MacroMatrix1 Can you run the model for Coimbatore with candidate details?

@Nithianandan_BV Thanks

@MacroMatrix1 I agree with the prediction what you provided. Just informed you !!

Madurai central Claude model predicts DMK wins comfortably. #TVKVijay‌HQ #DMK #NDA #BJP #admk2026

@Nithianandan_BV Thanks for correcting it. Claude took from Internet. I will change that. But it doesn’t matter PTR will win huge in this seat. But it knows how political party are fielding their candidate on caste profile on every region. It is micro level analysis.

@MacroMatrix1 Sundar.C s not from the caste you mentioned. He s from the same caste of PTR.

Madurai North model predicts DMK wins. Again three way fight helps DMK to win the seats. Watch out for candidate profile by all party. #TVKVijay‌HQ #DMKITWing #ADMK #BJP