babayaga รีทวีตแล้ว
BREAKING: - U.S. paper currency will bear President Donald Trump's signature to mark the 250th anniversary of U.S. independence, the Treasury Department said on Thursday, a first for a sitting president — Reuters
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babayaga
8.5K posts
@fomocapdao do you know any boomers that went through 70s seems like gold mine insight
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Imagine the Iran war lasts 4 years.
- Not a blitz.
- Not regime change.
- Not a clean victory.
Something closer to Russia-Ukraine:
- a slow war of attrition,
- a drone-sealed buffer zone,
- constant strikes,
- no decisive territorial movement,
and oil stabilized around $200.
What happens next?
1/
The war stops being about “winning.”
It becomes a contest of endurance:
- which state can absorb more economic pain,
- replace more drones,
- repair more infrastructure,
- and keep society psychologically numb longer.
2/
- The battlefield turns into a dead zone.
- Drones patrol everything.
- Convoys are visible.
- Armor becomes a target.
- Bases, ports, radar, energy sites, and logistics hubs get hit again and again.
Movement exists, but mass maneuver dies.
3/
Oil at $200 doesn’t just hurt drivers.
It rewires the entire global economy.
Shipping, fertilizer, plastics, aviation, food, power, insurance, manufacturing:
- everything reprices higher.
Inflation comes back with a military escort.
4/
- Europe gets hit again.
- Asia gets squeezed hard.
- Importers bleed.
Emerging markets start breaking at the edges:
- currencies weaken,
- subsidy burdens rise,
- trade deficits widen,
- political anger builds.
5/
- Gulf security doctrine changes permanently.
- Every refinery, terminal, desalination plant, port, and data center becomes a frontline asset.
- Defense spending explodes.
- Drone defense becomes as basic as air defense.
6/
- The U.S. stays involved even if it says it wants out.
- Because a 4-year Iran war is not a regional war.
- It is a global pricing mechanism,
- a naval security problem,
- an inflation problem,
- and a credibility test all at once.
7/
- Russia and China adapt, not necessarily by entering the war directly,
but by exploiting the distraction.
- Moscow benefits from a world addicted to conflict pricing.
- Beijing studies every missile, drone corridor, sanction gap, and supply-chain fracture.
8/
The biggest loser may be the middle class globally.
A long war with $200 oil means:
- higher food,
- higher transport,
- higher electricity,
- higher rates,
- weaker consumption,
- and another era of “temporary” emergency economics that never feels temporary.
9/
And after 4 years?
- Maybe the map barely changes.
- Maybe no one truly wins.
But the world that comes out of it is more militarized,
- more inflationary,
- more surveillance-heavy,
- more energy-insecure,
- and much less globalized than the one that went in.
That’s the real nightmare scenario:
- not World War III in one week,
- but a new normal of permanent attrition.
That kind of war doesn’t need dramatic breakthroughs.
- It only needs enough drones,
- enough money,
- enough hate,
- and enough oil shock to keep going.
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Did I read that right??
“17.5% GUARANTEED return.”
Andrew Curran@AndrewCurran_
OpenAl is offering private-equity firms a guaranteed minimum return of 17.5%, as well as early access to models not yet in public release.
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babayaga รีทวีตแล้ว
JPMORGAN LAUNCHES NEW CDS BASKET COVERING ALPHABET, AMAZON, META, MICROSOFT & ORACLE TO HELP CLIENTS HEDGE AI-RELATED DEBT RISK - SOURCES
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week ahead game plan.
trump's 48hr hormuz ultimatum expires monday night. iran responded by going harder, not softer. "completely close" the strait, shift from defensive to offensive, hit vital infrastructure. this is the most binary 24hrs of the conflict so far.
don't position ahead of the deadline. by tuesday you'll know which regime you're trading.
scenario 1: strikes on iranian power plants. oil $120+. energy and tankers rip. gold sells off further on rate repricing. equities gap down.
scenario 2: trump blinks or delays. relief rally in risk, oil pulls back toward $100. airlines bounce. but hormuz stays closed and the structural damage to ras laffan is done regardless.
either way, cheniere (LNG) wins. qatar's lng export capacity down 17%, repairs measured in years not months. us lng fills the gap. this is the cleanest asymmetric setup on the board right now.
gold at $4,495 after crashing from $5,400. the paradox: war drives oil, oil drives inflation, inflation keeps the fed hawkish, hawkish fed kills gold despite the geopolitical bid. don't catch the knife. $4,200-4,400 is where it gets interesting.
btc $69k, trading as a risk asset with 0.55 correlation to spx. not a hedge. not interesting until $58k.
the pmi prints monday are the first real read on how the war is hitting activity. a sub-50 manufacturing print with elevated services inflation is the stagflation confirmation nobody wants.
pce friday is the week's most important data point. if it's hot, the last remaining 2026 cut dies.
stay flat until the binary resolves. the market will still be here wednesday.
𝔰𝔱𝔬𝔫 𓆏@stonXBT
1/ macro thread. the fed just told you everything you need to know without saying anything at all. powell's own words: "if we were ever going to skip an SEP, this would be a good one because we just don't know." the fed chair is telling you his own projections are unreliable. let that sink in.
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been here since 2017. the small group i built genuine connections with mostly drifted apart after 2019. what’s left is a quagmire of engagement bait and shills.
the math is brutal. 9k followers, maybe 20 that actually engage. but post a betting referral link or tell people what they want to hear and watch the numbers go up. nobody’s here for grounded geopolitical analysis or actual trade frameworks.
do it because you love it. the environment’s only getting more constrained. or wait for the last leg of this bear to wipe out the salesmen, and you’ll find quality again underneath. that’s how it’s always been.
the signal survives the cycle, the noise doesn’t.
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When I first started actively posting here it was in the spring of 23' soon after the FTX collapse.
At the time, this place was a wasteland, sentiment was low and most of what I saw on my feed was garbage so I decided to start sharing my own voice.
There were still a few people continuing to provide value and engaging in constructive conversation.
Out of this small group of people (which I knew)- some have left, some have migrated to private communities which leaves an even smaller subset.
It's the same every cycle but the sentiment combined with the current Twitter mechanics and doom being propagated continuously makes for an absolute abysmal environment to stick around here for long.
This started as and remains an outlet for me to express what I've learned from others and made my own over time, connect with genuine people, engage in logical discourse with people who I respect and continue to learn more.
It has gotten significantly more difficult to do this here unless you chase the hot ball of engagement which has never been my thing but will continue to show up.
I do have a free private telegram that I've kept capped for a long time so might be opening up more invites for that soon. Just a place where I yap every now and again.
Bring back an environment of exchanging ideas, expressing views in a logical manner and learning pls.
/rant
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@TheRealNomics is that certain to cover all bases? you still have western bias being located there. member info prob good signal but they are also likely western system based or exposed
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@MalkCoin The same way we do correcting off the empty space that’s why we call that sentiment tings 😼
GIF
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@TheRealNomics how do you extrapolate the rule of the atom without hedging your bias. your own local exposure/perception
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With the amount of upsets u already seen in the 1st round of March Madness u gotta 🐝 able 2 realize the #blackswan is not the anomaly it’s actually the rule that’s why we call it rule of the ⚛️ its just the shape of tings bch’s 😸 #matrix #reality
TheRealNomics 😼🚀@TheRealNomics
1 person timing a 6 sigma event + Three 3 sigma events = 8.66 Sigma 👀 1 in a trillion or 20,000 times more rare than 6 sigma (4mill yrs *20k = 80 billion) an event that shouldn't occur in the entire history of the universe (Time Analogy) Proof this is a simulation? What if..
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multiple reasons:
- USD up hard= dedollarization/debasement narrative gold bulls exiting
- need for liquidity
- commodity rotation to oil
- recent big rally was as speculative as it was a flight to a safe haven, ie: gold has basically temporarily turned into a risk-on asset
Fomocap@fomocapdao
Can someone explain why gold is falling while rates are rising before new round of war?
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