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The BBC's Projected National Share in GB translates into the following seat tally:
➡️REF: 376 (+371)
🌹LAB: 113 (-299)
🔸LD: 71 (-1)
🌳CON: 12 (-109)
🟢Green: 5 (+1)
Reform Majority of 100.
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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧
7.6K posts
Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧
@MarwanData
Fintech Data Scientist @currensea and Pollster @ElectCalculus, RTs/Likes/Quotes/Follows not endorsement, Views my own.
เข้าร่วม Temmuz 2013
1.6K กำลังติดตาม5.4K ผู้ติดตาม
We've launched the United Airlines Debit Card.
Sign up below.
united.currensea.co.uk/?utm_source=li…
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@edhodgsoned @bbclaurak @10DowningStreet @BritainElects @PippaCrerar @BBCPolitics @Peston @UKLabour @campbellclaret @SamCoatesSky @bbcnickrobinson @MarinaPurkiss @owenjonesjourno @EmmaBurnell_ @tomhfh @JuliaHB1 @JackElsom This is awesome. How much harder would it be to do the same for members of the house of Lords?
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@bbclaurak @10DowningStreet @BritainElects @PippaCrerar @BBCPolitics @Peston @UKLabour @campbellclaret @SamCoatesSky @bbcnickrobinson @MarinaPurkiss @owenjonesjourno @EmmaBurnell_ @tomhfh @JuliaHB1 @JackElsom There's lots more interesting stuff in this data! For now I'll leave people to click around and exlplore - excited to see what people find.
I'll share some more of my own observations and thoughts later this week.
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94% of Britain's MPs are on Twitter - I've made a website so you can explore who they follow.
🔍Search for any username and see which MPs follow them.
🏅There's also a leaderboard so you can see who has the ear of Westminster
Link here: site.mpfollowers.workers.dev
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That's why the best companies offer their employees stock options.
Locks you into them for a good amount of time as options are almost always subject to a 2 year+ vesting period.
Slimfit@iSlimfit
The fastest way to increase your salary in the UK? Job hop. You don't owe any company loyalty.
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Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧 รีทวีตแล้ว
Today, I launch The British Cræft Prize.
A new £60,000 national award for maverick and misfit
makers, technologists, designers, and engineers.
Seeking inventions that fuse the deep wisdom of
heritage crafts of the past with cutting-edge
technologies of the future.
🧵👇
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Yes, that's correct. UK political parties process membership data under UK GDPR and the Data Protection Act 2018, which classify political opinions as special category personal data. This prohibits sharing or accessing another party's lists without explicit consent or a strict legal basis—none exists for cross-party visibility. Parties maintain isolated databases with no shared access.
The BNP leak (Nov 2008, with a follow-up in 2009) was published on WikiLeaks after an internal breach by former members—not initiated by WikiLeaks itself. It was the major public case.
No other significant UK party membership list leaks appear in records.
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Yes but I suspect the number of people who are members of both Your Party and the Green Party is quite high.
Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️⚧️@LeftieStats
🚨 NEW | Greens and Your Party now have more members combined than Labour, figures show. 🔴 Labour – 250,000 🟢 Greens – 215,000 🟥 Your Party – 60,000 Total Green/Your Party = 275,000 members
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@axiochrono @thnuaa Because of data protection laws, political parties in the UK don't have visibility on other parties. There was a leak of members of the BNP a few decades back by Wikileaks but I think that's it.
@grok can you verify if this is true? Have there ever been any other leaks?
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@thnuaa @MarwanData No, but it's not really a rule that's possible to practically enforce. Party membership lists aren't public, so even though all 5 major parties ban dual membership they have no way of actually checking to see if you're in another party.
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3Blue1Brown has done a huge amount of good work in making maths approachable and mainstream.
If ever you find yourself with a spare couple of hours, I'd highly recommend their content.
sachin.@sachinyadav699
This is the best Visual Explanation of how LLMs actually work
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🚨 BREAKING: Anthropic CEO just did a complete 180 in live interview
Do you regret saying ‘dictator-style praise’ about President Trump?
Anthropic CEO:
>“I want to completely apologize for this memo”
>“it was among the most disorienting times in Anthropic’s history”
>“i wouldn’t describe it as a memo”
>reframes 1,600 words sent to 2,000+ employees as a casual slack post
>“it’s not a considered or refined version of my thinking”
So, will you apologize to President Trump?
>“i’ve apologized to the people within the DoW”
>“happy to speak to anyone”
absolute cinema
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This result alone won't save Starmer's premiership, but it has to be said that this is a remarkable result for Labour.
I suspect this is a combination of anti-Reform tactical voting coupled with an anti incumbency vote (Reform run the show in Durham).
Election Maps UK@ElectionMapsUK
Murton (Durham) Council By-Election Result: 🌹 LAB: 50.6% (+17.6) ➡️ RFM: 39.6% (-4.5) 🌍 GRN: 4.8% (New) 🌳 CON: 3.1% (-2.0) 🔶 LDM: 1.9% (-2.3) No Ind (-13.6) as previous. Labour GAIN from Reform. Changes w/ 2025.
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Gorton and Denton LAB/CON combined vote share over time.
2019: 86.1%
2024: 58.7%
2026: 27.3%
GIF
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It is not normal, and I repeat, NOT NORMAL for a government that is hardly 2 years into its first term to be haemorrhaging votes in the way that it is.
In Corby, where the Conservatives lost the by-election in 2012, they still held on to 2/3 of their vote and came a strong second.
Labour have just come third in one of their safest seats.
No amount of spin can make this look like a not-so-bad result for Labour.
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Very misleading.
The Conservatives in 2010-2015 may have only won 1 by-election in that period, but they were not defending all 21 of those seats.
For context, the only seat the Conservatives lost that wasn't due to a defection was Corby.
John Slinger MP@JohnSlinger
Gorton and Denton is disappointing. Governments lose by-elections. The Conservatives lost all but one of 21 between 2010 and 2015 and still increased their vote share. Stay calm, back the PM, deliver change. Dust ourselves down and get on with the job.
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But any sensible pollster should have been at pains to say that an MRP isn’t useful for predicting a by election because there are all sorts of different dynamics and outsized anti govt swings compared to a GE. The two actual constituency polls were pretty good even if they slightly understated the greens.
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Another big takeaway from Gorton by election is that polls including MRP and Electoral Calculus got it wrong predicting a Reform Win. A warning to those currently crowing about polls in Scotland. They need to get out of their bubble and onto the doors and the streets.
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Exhibit C:
x.com/MarwanData/sta…
Confession - while I did say the Greens were ahead in this by-election, I confess I was surprised by their margin of victory. But a win is a win. And a correct prediction is a correct prediction.
Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧@MarwanData
Urgh. Bookies are moved by whales (I.e. People taking big positions that they can afford to lose). Pollsters have a reputation to uphold. The bookies want to make sure they are in the black. Greens are marginally ahead, but not by as much as bookies suggest.
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This is not correct.
The prediction we had on our website for Gorton and Denton was GE voting intention. It was NOT a by-election forecast.
By-elections are different beasts and voters behave differently.
Do check my prior tweets that I will link below for further context.
Joanna Cherry KC@joannaccherry
Another big takeaway from Gorton by election is that polls including MRP and Electoral Calculus got it wrong predicting a Reform Win. A warning to those currently crowing about polls in Scotland. They need to get out of their bubble and onto the doors and the streets.
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