@abhayjainp Could you please share the prompt for building the industry primer?
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Aaryan Mehta
374 posts
Aaryan Mehta
@Mehta5121
Investing. Bitcoin Maxi. AI
India เข้าร่วม Nisan 2014
948 กำลังติดตาม603 ผู้ติดตาม
@dampedspring Agree. But just one counter argument is that the ~107M shares they are placing at 380 yen per share would not have had the same demand (~$255M) if it werent for the warrants.
This is desperate capital raising. They obviously did not learn from the large raise they did last year.
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Unlike a convert which sells a warrant at a relatively fair implied volatility and monetizes that vol for the benefit of existing shareholder. This atrocious deal sold the warrant at a massive massive discount to fair implied volatility and allows a hedge fund to "monetize" the vol at the expense of existing shareholders.
Simon Gerovich@gerovich
Breaking down our latest raise. Our single KPI is Bitcoin per share. Every capital decision we make gets measured against that. After our last institutional offering, we heard from shareholders that they wanted us to think differently about how we raise capital. The demand was still clear: more Bitcoin. So here's what we did. Japanese PIPEs typically price at a ~10% discount to market. We sold shares at a 2% premium to market and packaged our equity vol into fixed-strike warrants at a 10% premium. The company gets immediate capital to grow the Bitcoin balance sheet. If the stock goes higher and warrants are exercised, we receive additional capital at a price above today's market. The investors get to express a view on volatility. This isn't zero-sum. Both sides can win. This is the same playbook MSTR pioneered with convertible bonds. A 0% coupon convert was a bond and an embedded call option packaged into one security. The coupon was zero because the embedded option on a levered BTC vehicle was so valuable it replaced the coupon entirely. The bondholder wasn't lending for free. They were paying for vol. Saylor understood this before anyone else in BTC and it unlocked a new paradigm for Bitcoin treasury capital formation. Same principle, different wrapper. We used stock plus warrants instead of converts, so there's no debt, no maturity risk, no overhang, no ongoing dividend or interest payments. The capital structure stays clean with no debt sitting above equity holders, and that's by design. When we issue preferred shares, the balance sheet underneath needs to be pristine. Every Bitcoin we add strengthens that foundation. The bigger the base, the more credible the credit. We are intentionally building this to become the dominant issuer of Bitcoin backed fixed income instruments in Japan. And finally, we run one of the most active BTC derivatives books in the world. Every scenario here has been stress tested and is being managed, including the tail risk on future warrant exercise. We built this company around Bitcoin volatility and BTC Yield. This is what we do. This is permanent capital with no ongoing cost. The proceeds go to Bitcoin. ~$255M now. Up to ~$531M on exercise. March toward 210,000 BTC continues.
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Why do you think bitcoin performs poorly in the next few years? what changed all of a sudden from say October of last year? Sure, we went the 4 year cycle way (again, unlike many had predicted) - but long term, the story is still intact.
Dont project short term sentiment way into the future - we all did this for Metaplanet in June last year (this was on the bullish side). Now, you are doing this for bitcoin, BTCTCs - just because last few months have been really bad.
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In October 2025 I completely threw in the towel on bitcoin treasury companies after being very bullish on MetaPlanet for most of the year.
The simple parallel between my flawed bullishness and I think $MSTR and even Bitcoin holder’s flawed bullishness is something most people still fail to grasp. I share mistakes I’ve made so others can avoid making them. 🧵👇.
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One more reason why UC could create long term sustainable returns.
In fact, the average monthly in hand is brought down by the fact that bottom earners do not work full time. They spend 3 to 4 hours per day as a side gig. The top 20% earners work full time and is comparable to IT entry level.
Equity Insights Elite@EquityInsightss
Top earners on Urban Company are making ~60% higher than typical entry level IT salaries Urban Company Partner Earnings Update Average monthly net in hand earnings for all active partners: ₹28,322 (vs ₹26,489 YoY) Top 20% partners: ₹42,418 per month Top 10% partners: ₹47,471 per month Top 5% partners: ₹51,673 per month
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I think you should avoid this stock primarily because of poor corporate governance. Clearly SGFin is not a focus for APL Apollo promoters and the current management lacks direction.
The guidance was massively reduced from an EOP loan book of 6000 Cr in FY27 to 7500 Cr in FY30. Like in just one quarter? When asked to the management why this was done - they cited the RBI issue and management change.
RBI issue? like that was like 2 years back and the 6000 Cr guidance was given post that issue was cleared. And management change - what is with this management that the reduction was this drastic?
When poked further, Anubhav (chief strategy officer) admitted the lowered guidance was not because of the RBI issue but because of management change.
And the worst thing is that they plan to grow the loan book linearly. Then someone asked why linearly - he couldnt answer that well. Then he started saying the loan book might even reach 6000 Cr by FY27 and we might be at 10,000 Cr by FY30.
And the new CEO was silent all the time.
Also - they said PAT would grow at 30%. I dont see this happening. Sure operating leverage will play out - but as debt grows - the interest payment will go up - so 30% PAT growth on 20% loan book growth is tough.
Also one more thing - the new warrant money might be directed towards new ventures - which are very unrelated to current supply chain financing business - AIF, insurance broking. They have no moat or experience here. And then Anubhav said they will take approval from the board.
There is clearly no direction. 20% AUM growth with such a small base, underpenetrated market, and great anchors is just unjustifiable.
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Electronics components manufacturing scheme outlay was just increased to 40,000 Cr. This will benefit Kaynes. Read my deep dive on Kaynes - this covers the services, recent issues causing negative sentiment, future growth and valuation.
#BudgetSession2026 #Budget2026 #Budget
Aaryan Mehta@Mehta5121
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Robotaxi rides without any safety monitors are now publicly available in Austin.
Starting with a few unsupervised vehicles mixed in with the broader robotaxi fleet with safety monitors, and the ratio will increase over time.
TSLA99T@Tsla99T
I am in a robotaxi without safety monitor
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About time😎
Waymo about to find out why Tesla has a $1.5T market cap.
TSLA99T@Tsla99T
I am in a robotaxi without safety monitor
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Published a deep dive on Urban Company (NSE: URBANCO). Lot of similarities here with Dentalkart.
1. Both are trying to organize a highly unorganized and fragmented market
2. Both have very low penetration (low single digits) of online services
3. Full stack
4. Market leaders
5. Great management teams
Aaryan Mehta@Mehta5121
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At the peak of the bitcoin treasury bubble - when everyone was saying that its *only* the bitcoin per share that matters for BTCTCs - we got to learn that this was not true.
In this treasury bear market, only $MSTR and Metaplanet (to a lesser extent) have been able to buy bitcoin at a meaningful scale.
$MSTR's moat with its scale, preferreds, and a great team proved quite solid - evident after today's buy.
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Maybe the disconnect between @saylor and @_DannyKnowles is that Saylor truly believes that buying bitcoin with low-interest, long-duration fiat debt can rescue failing businesses and provide the capital needed for them to succeed when that bitcoin appreciates far more than the debt. And maybe there's virtually endless appetite for these offerings because there's so much trapped capital around world? But we can all agree that for the average Joe watching Danny's podcast, investing in these companies instead of simply saving in bitcoin is a huge gamble, right?
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@willywoo Midterm election year
x.com/i/status/20078…
Aaryan Mehta@Mehta5121
Navigating the market in 2026 - year with midterm elections $SPY $QQQ #Bitcoin Three important charts/images here to talk about. Midterm years are very volatile, and if things play out as they have historically, this gives us an incredible opportunity to buy the dip in Q2 and Q3 of 2026. Chart 1 If you see, lows are formed in late Q3. This is right before the elections - as market slowly gets rid of uncertainty as to how the elections would play out. There will be volatility - see the avg/median dips - but also factor in the fact that lot of these years have had: - Recessions (1974, 1982, 1990) - High inflation/stagflation (1974, 1978, 1990, 2022) - Nasty bear market (2002, 2010) - FED tightening w/o high inflation/recession (2018) These ingredients are missing this year: - Recession risks are low as AI productivity/spend and OBBB help GDP growth - Inflation, though above 2% target, is more manageable and below 3% - No bear market, we are in decent momentum - FED has stopped QT, we are in a rate cutting cycle So, it is quite likely, unless something crazy happens, that we will see a peak to trough on S&P500 of single digits or at max mid single digits. This could likely fall around late Q3 (as it has historically). Chart 2 This chart just echoes what the above one says. See the pattern usually formed - consolidation in Q1 (may even have an upswing if earnings beat across the board), and then somewhere in Q2 we start to correct, to a bottom at the end of Q3. Q2 and Q3 could be good opportunities to buy the dip. Then its quite bullish in Q4. Q4 has been positive ~80% of the times. Chart 3 This one guides for 2027 returns. It is quite extraordinary that there has been no down year after a midterm year.
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I’m bullish BTC late Jan through Feb but presently bearish for 2026.
This is a data informed opinion which I hold lightly.
Our internal models of investor flows put in a bottom on 24th December and has steadily strengthened. Typically it takes around 2-3 weeks for this to express itself in price, arguably this is taking place now (only held back by very short term overbuying on technical oscillators).
Also promising is that paper based liquidity (futures markets) is coming back in after dying for months, just like it did mid 2021 which lead to a second top in the last cycle.
So 98-100k needs contesting. Then if we get past that it’s a wait and see how ATH resistance fairs.
But I remain bearish 2026 because in the broader picture liquidity flows have been waning relative to price momentum since Jan 2025. We are in the hot zone right now for the final stages when momentum has insufficient supporting liquidity.
What would change my mind would be a massive influx of spot (I.e. longer term) liquidity in coming months to break the waning down trend.
Worth keeping in mind a confirmed a bear market is not yet in place, which would be seen as increasingly negative flows out of BTC (a laggy indicator to a cycle top).
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@antigravity Did google realize that everyone is only using Opus 4.5 and not gemini?
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As we balance giving the best possible quotas and maintaining fairness between users, especially under incredible demand, we will be establishing generous weekly limits for all models. This will only affect a minority of Google AI Pro users. These limits do not apply to Google AI Ultra, which continues to be the best plan for power developers!
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@samvardhansingh what do you think are the reasons?
1. lack of awareness?
2. averse to change - like just why try something new when you know the local guy can do it?
3. is urban company more expensive?
4. service quality?
Anything else? Looking to invest, trying to understand it better.
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random observation. urban company still hasn’t cracked plumbers and electricians.
most households still call the local guy instead of opening an app and paying extra even for instant repairs.
i’ve seen this again and again. including at home.
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