Philipp Raasch

Tomorrow I'll send the full breakdown by email: where the customers of the next 20 years get won, and who sells 1 in 3 cars worldwide by 2030. Subscribe, free: autopreneur.substack.com/subscribe

Everyone's talking about the car crisis. The numbers say the opposite. In 2025 the world sold around 90 million cars, almost back to the best pre-Covid years. By 2030 it passes 100 million for the first time. The pie is getting bigger. Just not in the West. Almost all the growth happens outside Europe and North America: 1. India now builds more cars than Germany 2. China exports almost 2x as many cars as Germany even builds 3. China just passed Japan as the world's biggest car nation, the first time in 20+ years The real question isn't who leads today. It's where the market grows tomorrow. And it's none of the markets you'd expect.

The full breakdown is out now. Why the margins collapsed, what Japan and China do differently, and the bets ZF and Continental are already making. Free, 5 min read: autopreneur.substack.com/p/german-auto-…

Bosch and ZF were once startups. They need to become that again. German suppliers still rank 2nd in the world by revenue. But the typical one earns just 1.7%. Japan earns 5.9%. China 9.6%. The driver isn't effort. It's the segment. ZF in old powertrain runs -2.8%. Infineon in chips runs 21.5%. Same country. What you build decides everything now. Getting cheaper won't save them this time. For the first time in generations, they have to rethink what they actually build. That's not an efficiency problem. It's a founder problem. Every one of these giants started as a bet on a market that didn't exist yet. The quiet decades turned them into managers. Survival means becoming founders again.

I broke down the new Berylls TOP-100 supplier study and spoke to the authors. Subscribe and I'll send you the full analysis tomorrow, free: autopreneur.substack.com/subscribe

Your savings account earns more than the world's largest auto supplier. Bosch does around $60B in revenue a year. Margin: 1.8%. And Bosch isn't alone. German suppliers rank 2nd in the world by revenue. Last in margins of any major supplier nation. Japan's suppliers earn 3x what Germany's do. China's earn 5x. The gap isn't random. There's one specific reason for it. And most people haven't heard it.

@NurGugger @VeroWendland @ronzheimer Kann dir mein Video dazu empfehlen: youtu.be/KqH4TvAiU_g

@VeroWendland @ronzheimer @PhilippRaasch Moment - Mercedes war vor kurzem noch führend bei Selbstfahrern.

Interview von @ronzheimer mit @PhilippRaasch über die 🇩🇪 Autoindustrie. Das nennt man complacency: Erst den Zukunftsmarkt E-Auto verachtet; dann nicht erkannr, dass die Batterie im E-Auto Zentrum der Wertschöpfung ist; und jetzt beim selbstfahrenden Auto abgehängt.

I wrote the whole thing down this week: why the model broke, why China wins the way it plays, and how Germany still finds a way back. Live now. Free weekly analysis from Germany: autopreneur.substack.com/p/germany-car-…

I joined Mercedes as an intern in 2011. I stayed for almost a decade. Everything I've done since has been tied to this industry. My livelihood still depends on it. So this is hard to say: Germany's time as the world's car nation is over. Not tomorrow. Not maybe. Now. And most people inside the industry already know it. Audi's CEO said it to his own team: this is no longer about a single model. It's about the survival of the entire German car industry. But that's not the end of the story. It's where the real question starts.

is it just me?

Tomorrow I put the whole picture together: where Germany's car industry actually stands, and what comes next. Weekly analysis of the global auto industry. Free, from Germany: autopreneur.substack.com/subscribe

Germany invented the car. Now it's losing its car industry. Across German industry, more than 10,000 jobs disappear every month. They have for 2 years. And nowhere is it worse than in cars. Germany's car association keeps the count: 100,000 jobs gone since 2019, and 125,000 more on the way. These aren't just jobs. In the country that invented the car, they're part of who Germany is. Inside the industry, most people already feel it. An era is ending. So is this really the end? Or is there still a way out?

@superrieu Here you go: youtu.be/iqHZ0VzdYP4?is…

Kurze Nachfrage, @PhilippRaasch: Wie genau heißt die angesprochene Folge mit der 🇨🇳 Expertin? Würde die gern nachhören, aber in den Folgenbeschreibungen konnte ich das nicht finden.

👇 Gespräch von @ronzheimer mit dem Automotive-Experten @PhilippRaasch sollte man sich unbedingt anhören, denn er beschreibt die Situation der 🇩🇪 Automobilhersteller als eine Art Isolation im Elfenbeinturm, in dem man die Realität lange Zeit nicht wahrhaben wollte. 1/12

Danke @PhilippRaasch für den Beitrag bei @ronzheimer zur aktuellen Lage in der Automobilindustrie ! Alles Relevante auf den Punkt gebracht 🫶 youtu.be/YxnIXq2Gafk?is…

Ein wirklich erhellendes Interview Bei @ronzheimer Absolut empfehlenswert. Alles zum Thema #Auto und wie es um unsere Industrie steht. 👇 open.spotify.com/episode/0kFrFr…

The full story is in today's newsletter. The German Autopreneur, every Wednesday, 5 min read, free. open.substack.com/pub/autopreneu…

Europe lost the self-driving race before it really began. Europe's first commercial robotaxi runs in Zagreb. The self-driving stack under it was built by @PonyAI_tech . A Chinese company. @Stellantis just picked the same supplier for its Luxembourg pilot. Europe didn't build the stack. It bought it. Meanwhile @Waymo is now worth more than @MercedesBenz, @VW, and Stellantis combined. 15 years ago German automakers bought battery cells instead of building them. It turned out to be one of the biggest mistakes in the industry's history. They're making the same call on self-driving now.

@Scobleizer It would be funny if it wasn't so sad...

@PhilippRaasch What's ironic is that VW sponsored the program at Stanford University where Waymo started. It's name is on the building.

Waymo is now worth more than Mercedes, VW, and Stellantis combined. $126B for a robotaxi operator. Your car. Your taxi. Your bus. All three will drive themselves within the next decade. The technology behind them is coming out of the US and China. Not Europe. In the US, Waymo is doing close to 500,000 paid rides a week. In China, robotaxis cost as much as a compact car. In Europe, not one runs without a safety driver. Tomorrow I break down where Mercedes, BMW, and VW actually stand.

The German Autopreneur, every Wednesday. 5 min read, free. autopreneur.substack.com/subscribe