Billy Ray Valentine

Keen to pull together a small grp (6 - 10) of like minded #FX #Traders for reg catch-ups to discuss pairs they specialise in & the fundamental drivers. If u r a hairy chested, loud talking spruiker, pls don't bother If u r genuine, humble & willing to listen & learn, please do

@JohnKicklighter Just exhaling now... only to draw breath again for the markets interpretation and response

Is everyone holding their breath for NVDA?

@Callum_Thomas Diversify... hedge... always have a back-up plan for when it all goes to $hit

"Don't worry, stocks and bonds *almost never* both fall at the same time" 1931, 1969, 2022: 👺 Not a reason to discard stocks or bonds, and especially not a reason to discard asset allocation, but certainly a prompt to be more clever about diversification efforts and investment process... 🤓 From the Weekly ChartStorm: chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-and…

@TheKouk Obviously only one print... and a monthly at that, so of course it's a flourish to say it 'running hot'. You can't see a trend on two points. Having said that, let's see where the next point lands. Could at the very least pour cold water over any further cuts in the near term

Some folk are suggesting the July data show "inflation is running hot". Egad! What a dreadful take. I just checked the ABS results & checked the RBA target and what do you know? Inflation is still in the target band! Fancy that. ICYMI

@kathylienfx Yes

@ChrisWeston_PS ASX. A highly underestimated investment & trading vehicle. Sure, not the glitz & glamour of the NAS & SPX... but not the volatility & downside risk either. A good steady, reliable earner. Been taking this ride to the bank all year!

New all time highs seen in the AUS200, and SPI futures .... we did it, once more.... the ASX200 may not be the higher beta playground of the NAS100, HK50 or DAX, but we are a safe harbor in this topsy turvy world - we have the lowest tariff rates, one of the best capitalized banking sectors in the world (albeit the most expensive), and at an aggregate level - a stable and predictable earnings profile - consumer discretionary names are working well, with the RBA fully expected to cut in August and with Albo's/Chalmers fiscal policy set to further support the public sector side of the economy in FY2026 - boring can, at times, be attractive. As we inch ever closer to Aussie Summer - may your super be full and rich and your mortgage repayments further reduced - where perhaps the biggest headache is the increasing need to mow the lawn almost every weekend if you want to impress on the neighbours.

@ChrisWeston_PS Great summary!

Pretty funky day in Japan - the PM has laid out that he'll step down this month, so traders grapple with what's next and try to price the risk around politics, bond issuance and fiscal under a new supplementary budget - the LDP party will hold an internal meeting on 31 July, with an Extraordinary Diet session held the day after (lasting 5 days)... Todays 40yr JGB auction was poor despite the MOF cutting the issuance size by a fair whack - the lowest bid/cover since 2011, a chunky tail and the buyers were mostly short-term players.... so the ultra long-end of the JGB curve - which was reasonably well behaved for much of trade, has lost the bid and yields are up 9bp on the day. Breakevens (inflation expectations) have also moved 10bp higher, as such, real rates have been contained .... The BoJ has stated they are in no rush to raise rates despite seeing a fairly positive outcome in tariffs, and at least having something to model their economic scenarios.... JP swaps price 21bp of hikes by December, with the September BOJ meeting looking somewhat 'live'... The BoJ will now need to work with the MoF and the big JP banks/primary dealers to address liquidity needs in the long-end, and to ward off another big buyers strike....the moves in the JGB market possibly set to flow thru to the UK gilt market... The NKY225 (+3.6%) & TOPIX have paid little attention to the sell off in bonds, and has feasted on the tariff news... auto's, financial and Healthcare have gone for it.... and the JP equity index has broken out hard.... maybe the equity market will revert to looking at JGBs, and traders will by volatility to hedge.. A reversal higher in USDJPY has also been supportive of NKY225 upside, although the spot JPY is well behaved on the day and USDJPY 1-week vols remain at low levels...So, a lot going on in Japan

WIN A TRIP TO MEET THE LAWRENCE BROTHERS FOR YOU & 3 GUESTS | AUSX OPEN Marvel Stadium November 22: arep.co/hiipsy

@mako_management Does that factor in the fact that TACO... the (very real) possibility that these tariffs will never ever come into effect

One thesis we have is that markets are drastically underpricing the hit that all these tariffs will have on the US economy (essentially the biggest consumption tax hike in 95 years). Compounded by the Fed not being able to support the economy with easing due to temporary (Powell will never say transitory again) cost-push inflation. 1+ 1 = ? Risk assets getting smashed. It's a 3-12 month view and still at speculative stages. Awaiting economic data catalysts.

@msmstarr @TheKouk Did you even watch it? ...didn't think so!

@TheKouk Are you seriously delusional, or just ALP-blinded?

Treasurer Chalmers speech is one of the best I’ve heard on economic policy in many decades. So much to be optimistic and hopeful for. Just fabulous.

@TheKouk I'm as straight as the day is long... but I'm developing a serious man-crush on this guy!

Ange talks about the challenges he faced trying to get a job in Europe, being rejected by Championship clubs & how he got the Celtic job First Australian to manage in a top-flight European league. 4 years later a European champion. It is fairytale stuff.

@mako_management Agree... and it provides one of the greatest tests for FX traders... to sit on your hands & DON'T TRADE

This dearth in high-conviction FX trades is horrendous. The worst I can remember.

@JohnKicklighter American exceptionalism?

I find it ironic that it DeepSeek is funded and created by a Chinese hedgefund. China is notorious for finding ways to undercut west production costs. Also, normally, the west is dubious of China's data - particularly from its financial areas where it is particularly murky

@mako_management @silmarilco Yes... but just his jaw & thumbs.

@PhoenixFX1 @silmarilco Does he exercise?

The dude operates without caffeine or alcohol. Machine.

@mako_management @silmarilco Sounds like a recipe for a mid-term heart attack. As a trader of fundamentals, these fundamentals are 'interesting' and you can only fight them for so long.

@silmarilco He's healthy until he gets to dinner 😂

@mako_management Playing out nicely...

And staying short #USDJPY from earlier in the week (hawkish BOJ + weak US PPI and core CPI). Elementary stuff.

@mako_management That's offensive... to clowns! They have more dignity, self-respect & intelligence in their $hit that he has in his whole body!

What a clown - he just spent 4 years whinging about high inflation.

@mako_management Jaw-boning only perhaps...

BOJ GOV UEDA SAYS WE DETERMINED MORE INFO NEEDED TO GAUGE WAGE TRENDS WHEN ASKED ABOUT SKIPPING RATE HIKE THIS TIME

@IFM_Economist It's what's called, 'the working poor'...☹️

While the RBA is gaining some confidence inflation is coming back to target, the tight labour market buys it time to become abundantly sure. While GDP growth might be weak it simply hasn't being reflected materially in labour market outcomes.

Warren Buffett who is currently the 7th richest person in the world worth $150,000,000,000.00 just sent out this letter explaining his thoughts on distributing his wealth after he passes away A thread 🧵⬇️