QuantPunter

@crow_data_sigh Go do the Dally M then!

easy access to data has ruined the brownlow experience

The clear #1 by this methodology is @greenlitaccount (see the models sheet), who also won in 2023 and came second by a whisker last year. Big congrats there - he clearly has a very good handle on it. However there were lots of good models, so thanks all for your submissions.

Assessing the various predictions always a bit subjective - there are many metrics you can use and any one on it's own is a bit subjective, so I've gone with six and ranked the models based on their average rank across all six.

Feel like I say it every year, but what a crazy count last night. Not complaining though, that's the beauty of it - you're not trying to predict the best, you're predicting who the umps think is best! It's why is hard, and why there is so much good betting! Long may it continue!

@brownlowboss I’m aggregating all available Brownlow counts. Wanna be included and put your predictions to the test?

Our 2025 #brownlow spreadsheet is ready & available for purchase. Check out the video below to see just how much info, efficiency & intuitiveness is packed into the sheet for just $50! buy.stripe.com/8wM9BMf726eF81…

@_colonelsander_ @greenlitaccount @SgtButane done

@QuantPunter @greenlitaccount @SgtButane Ah Buggar. Odds are way off for him then for early rounds. Any chance you can unlock team summaries? Eg ADEL team totals and sum if adel(player). You’re doing ripper work

It's that time of year again - Brownlow Eve. Here are the 2025 consensus predictions round by round! If you have a model / or know one that's missing, comment below (still awaiting a couple incl. last years' winners @greenlitaccount and @SgtButane ). docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

@_colonelsander_ @greenlitaccount @SgtButane It def doesn’t. My systems just couldn’t handle a team playing twice in the same round, so made a captains call on that. Caveat emptor on this stuff for betting purposes!

@QuantPunter @greenlitaccount @SgtButane Love this @QuantPunter, do you know if suns v dons counts as part of the first 6 rounds during the count?

@Damion23 Running a comparison sheet again this year (have for the past several years). Keen to add your count to the mix if interested.

Brownlow day 💪 Anyone else pumped... Or just me because I'm either going to be extremely broke or cashed up by the end of the night 😂 Will drop some brownlow bets during the day if anyone is keen to follow along. Also will be banging out bets on dabble live during the count

Thanks to @joel_cashman5, @JMichaelsESPN, @Before_You_Bet, @andrew_whelan for putting their numbers out all year.

Will do a post-count tweet during the week announcing "best" submission according to a weighted avg of several metrics (see last years' sheet for details) and discussing anomalies, points of interest, etc.

Going to do this again! Have you got a Brownlow model? DM and I’ll add it to the sheet which should be out later tonight. Always good to look at the different predictions and then compare again after the count. Last years’ consensus votes were pretty accurate!

@AflGlicko lol. Another data point

Best player in the runners-up team going to miss. Cannot believe this.

@AflGlicko It’s also my team, and your opinion holds some weight. Just not as much as Scotty, oppo coaches, media pundits, SuperCoach stats, pro gamblers. You asked why people say smith better… consider it answered!

@QuantPunter It's my team that I watch closely every week. My opinion holds weight. Truth is Atkins is winning the BnF anyway.

How are we still doing Smith > Holmes

@AflGlicko Everyone is entitled to their own view, but the arrogance to assert something as fact when it’s co traduced by the media votes, the coaches votes, the Brownlow votes, the SuperCoach, fantasy points, every fan on the planet etc etc is pretty stunning. And from a uni kid no less!

@QuantPunter Smith could win the Brownlow and that wouldn't change the fact he's the third best player in the team.

@AflGlicko Smith better on most metrics including every media poll, CV, Brownlow votes, SC. Holmes better on PR

@QuantPunter The ones who know the game well know he's the better player. We using coaches votes as the measure then why is Jezza on the list then?

@AflGlicko Oh so he would be better but <insert subjective reason why he isn’t >?

@QuantPunter Oppo coaches tag Holmes. Think that's revealing.

@AflGlicko Apparently neither does Chris Scott + oppo coaches who have given Bailey more CV in less games 😂

@QuantPunter You don't know ball.

@AflGlicko lol