@HowIntelligent @zephyr_z9 Can we agree ALM is in deep sh1t? More fo EQR and $GMTL?
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R.O.L. Capital
3K posts
R.O.L. Capital
@ROLCapital
Buyside since early 2000s. Now Family Office. Equity L/S, Event Driven, Corporate Credit, Sovereign Debt.
New York, USA เข้าร่วม Şubat 2022
418 กำลังติดตาม906 ผู้ติดตาม
@ROLCapital @zephyr_z9 3) ALM is already Nasdaq dominant, and TUNG uplists in Q2. EQR in AUS is another option and producing now but they don’t seem to want to get off their continent (to investor dismay).
If you’re going to capitalize on this bull market - these are the only three names to play. IMO
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Btw, China has imposed bans on Tungsten exports
The prices of WF6 (Tungsten hexafluoride), which is used in CVD, jumped 10x due to that
Teortaxes▶️ (DeepSeek 推特🐋铁粉 2023 – ∞)@teortaxesTex
> A $resource the US needs for its future war with Chyna is depleted > check out who produces said $resource > [[[Every. Single. Time.]]]
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*TRUMP TELLS AIDES HE'S WILLING TO END WAR WITHOUT REOPENING HORMUZ: WSJ
We blow up the global energy markets…
and then just leave.
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@Geiger_Capital Is he talking about oil or indices? Flips the meaning
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You’re bearish?
The Speaker of the Iranian Parliament is tweeting financial advice about fading the pre-market energy moves, and you’re bearish?
محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf@mb_ghalibaf
Heads-up: Pre-market so-called “news” or “Truth” is often just a setup for profit-taking. Basically, it’s a reverse indicator. Do the opposite: If they pump it, short it. If they dump it, go long. See something tomorrow? You know the drill.
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@sjm750 @oliverjfriesen @GuardianMetRes GMET is worth 5-10x at 3k tungsten in 2028
1bn+ annual ebitda and 750mm fcf vs 700mm mkt cap.
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R.O.L. Capital รีทวีตแล้ว
One of the only commodities in the green (other than oil) was tungsten on Friday - up almost 18% from the previous week with a mid price of $2,650/mtu.
The 🇺🇸 needs tungsten mined supply at home.
#gmtl #gmet @GuardianMetRes
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@Rebecca98869736 @Chasingpaperbro @PeterLBrandt Go long metals and industrials. Consumer will suffer with oil but the rebates will help. Get out of defensives.
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@Chasingpaperbro @PeterLBrandt Yeah, I think it will develop over the entire year cause the oil is not coming back easily but the money is already starting to come back so there will be a fight until it bottoms.
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Comparing now to 2008
MAGS vs. Dow (which lead then)
DO YOU THINK THIS IS POSSIBLE - YES OR NO
If true, the good news is that we are almost halfway home
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@KairosPraxis Tungsten + Metals / cyclicals since Nov. Cut a lot of risk in feb. Go into Credit special sits since
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My feed did a full 180 with most posts including the Bibi files putting major pressure on a perspective change towards Israel having started this war and blaming them for the aggression.
I can’t tell if this is propaganda from the Iranian side or the US looking for an exit.
I think the info, the tapes, the top US officials, history and alike speak for themselves.
Doesn’t seem random, the feed started changing right around when negotiations reportedly started to end the war.
Doesn’t feel random.
Wish there was a website that would show the change in algo behavior and show who/what could push narratives.
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@citrini @zephyr_z9 Great pair this far but it’s two completely separate trades. Rates work with or without ES going lower.
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@BULLOFBRITAIN $GMTL is the only US mine coming online through 2028. 10x at spot prices.
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No one is talking about the hidden super-duper-turbo tungsten cycle.
Almonty $ALM through hideous managerial decisions collapse and $EQR.AX buyout their entire permit to Sangdong, in-turn owning the entire western Tungsten pipeline for 2 years minimum.
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@HowIntelligent @zephyr_z9 Yes. ping me direct if want to discuss further
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@ROLCapital @zephyr_z9 We still gained 12%+ this week on the Rotterdam price. Hopefully it keeps going up!
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@HowIntelligent @zephyr_z9 math gets too not believable if i run it at 3k or even 5k which is where i think it lands
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@HowIntelligent @zephyr_z9 ofc i know thats the price that matters. i was just being conservative.
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@Crussian17 No. Mkt pricing China and Europeans open the strait. So oil goes lower
And Us eventually leaves and stop the bombings.
So Us economy can go back to where it was (other a mild old shock)
You don’t have to agree. But mkt is trading that
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Price action makes no sense…No ceasefire, everything rejected yet market ripping and oil dropping. Must believe the ground invasion of the island will be successful and can hold it to keep strait open otherwise makes no sense. Either that or just massive downside that’s being ignored or some other inside info again…
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R.O.L. Capital รีทวีตแล้ว
$GMTL IPO’d in USA Today. Was listed in London under GMET LN
Thesis: USA produces no tungsten. Zero. None. China produces 85%, Russia and NKorea 10%.
GMET owns the largest tungsten resource in the USA. Government already gave them money.
Here’s some math for you:
- will produce 4k tons.
- price is 220k per but in Europe and China already at 300k per
- cash costs 40k per
- so you have a an asset generating 700-1bn ebitda in 27-28
That’s 0.5x ebitda
You are welcome
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@TMTLongShort Woke up at 4am see futures -2%, don’t fall asleep again
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Day in the life of early 30s in the city:
6am - wake up in a cold sweet
7am - start monitoring the situation
8am - tweet about the situation
9am - keep monitoring the situation
11pm - fall asleep having monitored the situation
Murray Hill Guy@MurrayHillGuy1
Day in the life of a mid 30s guy in the suburbs (Saturday edition/no kids): 7:30am — wakes up before his alarm anyway 8:00 — walks the golden retriever 8:30 — chug a black coffee 9:30 — Costco run that somehow turns into $347 12:30 — eats samples like it’s lunch 2:00 — “quick” nap that ruins the rest of the day 4:30 — stands in the backyard staring at nothing 6:00 — gets yelled at by his wife for something he definitely did wrong 7:30 — 1.5 beers = exhausted 9:15 — falls asleep mid-movie he picked 2:30am — wide awake for no reason, contemplating everything Same script every weekend
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You should take the class. The state’s finances are a dumpster fire.
Governor Gavin Newsom@CAgovernor
Starting in the 2027-28 school year, California will offer a new personal finance course to high schoolers and require it for graduation beginning with the 2031 class. Every Californian should leave high school with the tools to manage money, avoid debt, and build wealth.
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@el_miikka Guardian Metals has 2x upside of EQR $GMTL $GMET LN
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As an $eqr.ax stockholder, here's a contrarian though: the supply crisis is going to get so bad that even $alm at current valuations is a decent buy.
Not buying it myself though.
Miikkael@el_miikka
“#Tungsten was an essential material for defense industries during the Korean war. But its use in the civilian and industrial sectors was very limited. A survey by the Bank of Korea in 1952 revealed that approximately 95% of all tungsten demand came from the defense industry -- the cruel reality for the tungsten industry in South Korea was that tungsten’s profitability depended on how long the Korean War lasted.” Nowadays defense demand only accounts for 14% anymore. I have a feeling that the Tungsten supply crisis this time is going to be something the world hasn’t seen before. But who knows, maybe I'm wrong. Eqr.ax
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