⚜️Dr. Yuxel Hoš@ErkaniHarbiyye
💢While the U.S. talks about taking #Iran's oil hub, #Kharg Island, I want to explain why such a threat is practically impossible from a military geography perspective. I won’t go too technical anyone can follow this.
💢 Let’s look straight at the topographic map panel and interpret what we see. This is the kind of information people need. It took a bit of effort to turn my thoughts into a visual map, but AI helped generate an approximate image. Even in this short time, it conveys the essential idea.
💢To occupy an island at this distance, the invading force would need to control and secure the Iranian coastline the island faces both north and south for at least 100 km each. Then, they would need to establish full control over the inland terrain behind the coast in this case, the brown mountainous area on the far right—for at least 150 km. That roughly equals an area of 30,000 km², about the size of Sivas in Turkey.
💢 The U.S. taking this island is not like Russia occupying a low-lying area like Azovstal. It would cause heavy losses, and establishing a foothold would likely fail, similar to the difficulties seen at Iwo Jima.
💢 Unlike Iwo Jima, the island does not have heroic, high-relief terrain. Its defense may seem weak at first glance, but in reality, the nearby Iranian coastline and elevated regions dominate the island with 100% firepower coverage. How could anyone take it? At least 100,000 troops would be needed for such an operation.
💢 As is well known, taking low-lying islands or coasts depends heavily on the proximity of higher ground. Any assault without dominating those heights is essentially suicidal.
💢 This is not like the Gulf War, when Iraq easily occupied the relatively flat Bubiyan and Failaka islands of Kuwait. Those islands faced no nearby high terrain with firepower dominance, so Iraqi forces could move in without significant resistance.
💢 Here, the decisive factor is not the size of the island itself, but the coastline it faces and its geographic connection to Iran’s inland highlands. The ability to read and use this geographic information determines strategy and outcomes.
💢 The U.S. unfortunately puts too much trust in expensive toys, much like the Allied forces at Gallipoli. If they attempt something like this, they are likely to suffer a similar fate.
💢 Armies fight armies, but real war is fought against geography. In this region, geography favors Iran. This is one reason Iran has survived for thousands of years. The U.S. will learn this lesson too, but at a very high cost.
