@tottaway22 @bozai03 As if $VSAT do not have enough problems find themeselves in hot water with the judge in the Ligado settlement.
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R🅰️bbitLeader🏴🇬🇧
9.1K posts
@bozai03 Probably, spectrum & SpaceX acquisition of echostar spectrum value is probably the only reason they are up this year as the underlying business is deteriorating.
Without ASTs cash payment they’d have under $600m in cash on a $6b debt stack. They needed that $420m
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$VSAT - this is a scary chart when you only have $1.1b in cash.
With nearly all operating cashflow going towards the $1b/yr in capex only leaves $200m FCF/yr for debt repayment. The math doesn’t work.
Awards in 2025 -10% (bleeding aviation) & -3% EBITDA doesn’t help
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@LuckyStuey @tottaway22 So $VSAT has $1bn in cash and spending it a rate like a trooper. Dilution is a high probability. Not good.
GIF
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@AaronBastani Always the wrong take from those on the left!
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When Churchill said ‘we will fight them on the beaches’ that was admirable and noble.
Why is it so hard to understand that other people in other countries feel exactly the same?
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There’s no evidence they’re being forced to do anything.
The reality is millions of Iranians are willing to sacrifice themselves for their country. Whatever one’s views on it.
When that’s Britain some find it admirable. But when it’s other countries it’s… ‘sick’?
Patrick Christys@PatrickChristys
You might disagree with what Trump’s saying he’s going to do…but it’s also pretty sick to deliberately use women and children as human shields like this - there’s even a baby there.
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@DaveAtherton20 Can we deport all these IRGC supporters in UK? Why are they in the UK? Claimed asylum from Iran and now supporting IRGC?
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🚨Breaking News🚨
As president Trump is about the take the gloves off, pro-IRGC supporters gather outside Downing Street to chant Allah Akbar.
Why are they here in Britain?
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@AllisonPearson @BBCNews Just watched BBC 6pm News for the first time in more than a year to discover presenter, all journalists and weather presented by a female. That would be frowned upon by leftist woke BBC if this was an all male line up.
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Amazing. @BBCNews has found a man who only waited an hour to be seen in A&E.
“You gotta be proud of our NHS.”
Get lost with your Socialist propaganda!
The NHS is not a first world health service.
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@kap00r @tottaway22 When you rely on a third party to build your satellites you lose control of your business.
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$VSAT - I would not want to be long. Significant headwinds underway with ViaSat -3 F2 not deployed yet (issues?), losing market share to Leo operators, minimal FCF to support debt payments. $1.1b cash but $6.7b in debt, $1b in 26 capex with over $1b debt due by end of next year & massive amounts due in 2029 & 2030 (over $4b).
Will require refinancing or dilution to maintain liquidity.
Will share more later
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Has Putin already been informed of the defeat? Ukrainian troops have completely sealed off the encircled city.
The Russian army in Kupyansk has capitulated. Entire units have laid down their arms! Thousands of occupiers have come out with their hands raised. The streets are filled with prisoners, and abandoned equipment stands in rows.
Russian commanders have surrendered the city without a fight.
They are beginning to understand that their enemy is behind the Kremlin walls!
Sheff+Ukraina 🇫🇮🇺🇦@SheffUkraina
Путину уже сообщили о поражении? Войска ВСУ полностью перекрыли окруженный город. Российская армия в Купянске капитулировала. Целые подразделения сложили оружие! Тысячи оккупантов вышли с поднятыми руками. Улицы заполнены пленными, а брошенная техника стоит рядами. Русские командиры сдали город без боя. Начинают понимать что их враг за кремлевской стеной!
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@WillTatton @bswud WRONG! Wind is a huge subsidy because it is paid in excess of wholesale prices what UK for gas fired generation. SIMPLE! You are not an electricity market analyst! Cheerio.
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@RabbittLeader @bswud Why do you want higher bills?
Renewables save us >£17bn a year, who cares about a "subsidy" of ~£2.5bn?
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Electricity in the UK is destined to be more expensive come what may, even if gas prices fall to zero. And at this point, the more renewable generation we purchase through CfDs, the more expensive electricity will be, through additional grid costs, balancing costs, and more.
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@WillTatton @bswud With zero subsidy to wind there would be no wind and £110MWh is avoided and substituted by gas generation paid at its marginal price in region of £70-80MWh at normal gas prices. Do NOT confuse this with marginal plant running few op hours to recover fixed costs.
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@RabbittLeader @bswud Wholesale price is ONLY less than £110 BECAUSE of wind. We've just demonstrated this. Are you not paying attention?x.com/WillTatton/sta…
William Oakley@WillTatton
@RabbittLeader @bswud Oh, you want to look further back in time? Last year when gas exceeded 50% of generation wholesale prices ~£221/MWh.
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@WillTatton @bswud LOL… Bleedin obvious that higher gas prices increases elec price but that does not legitimise heavy subsidies to wind above wholesale price to increase immunity to a temporary oil crisis.
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@RabbittLeader @bswud We're clearly not affected by gas prices here. I'm just showing how much renewables cut our wholesale costs. Gas does the opposite, it raises the wholesale price, this is bad, it raises our bills.
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@WillTatton @bswud Comparing expensively subsided wind to gas prices when they are spiking during an oil crisis. Distorted economics.
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@RabbittLeader @bswud This is the wholesale price right now. Cheap right? And all thanks to renewables.
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@WillTatton @bswud Please do not compare Iran fuelled gas prices. That is nonsense. And you fail to include wider costs that wind is imposing on end prices paid by customers.
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@RabbittLeader @bswud Don't try to distract from the point with this drivel. Let's get it clear how much gas really costs to generate electricity.x.com/WillTatton/sta…
William Oakley@WillTatton
@RabbittLeader @bswud If we look at a day that was gas heavy, say the 9th March (43% gas) then the wholesale price jumps to ~£130/MWh. That's a pretty spicy price, but now imagine what happens if gas reaches 50% or even 60%.
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@WillTatton @bswud LOL… Was a wholesale gas and power trader for large generators. As wind is heavily subsidised, it will bid zero but these are not its true costs. Retail pays strike price at £110MWh plus SO wind related balancing costs plus uncertain wind increases risk in wholesale price.
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@RabbittLeader @bswud You clearly don't understand how the market works. There are fixed OpEx costs and marginal OpEx costs. The Marginal Cost to produce the next MWh is <£1. In any rational market, you bid your marginal cost to ensure you clear the merit order. Therefore Wind bids £0 and beats gas.
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@WillTatton @bswud Your analysis also excludes the additional balancing costs imposed on system operator and risk premium added into the marginal price based on capacity shortage driven by wind uncertainty.
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@RabbittLeader @bswud You're just talking about the price of gas as a fuel, not the price of gas generated electricity. There's a big difference between the two.
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@WillTatton @bswud LOL…I know exactly the marginal cost of gas converted to an electricity price hence priced as £/MWh not p/th!
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@WillTatton @bswud OPEX for wind is £10-20MWh but because they are subsidised at a strike price of £110 are receiving a subsidy of £40MWh above market price at £70MWh. Profit on wind farm is £110 less than £20MWh OPEX.
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@RabbittLeader @bswud The wholesale cost when gas takes the brunt is ~£130/MWh, latest offshore wind prices are ~£91/MWh.
But even if wind was more expensive it still brings overall costs down because it brings the wholesale price down for everything.
Marginal OpEx for wind is < £1/MWh.
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@WillTatton @bswud CFD strike prices for wind farms paid by tax payers is well above the wholesale price!!! And in any case wind does not bring wholesale costs to zero as the operating cost of a wind farm is also not zero somewhere in region of £10-20/ MWh.
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@bswud Firstly gas prices are never going to fall anywhere near zero. It is wind power that brings wholesale costs to zero.
The most expensive renewables are coming to an end, the new CfDs are much cheaper than gas, even for prices from before the war.
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