Ryan Reeves

2/3 infuse-am.com/post/q3-2025-l…

Wait, Adyen does M&A? I thought that was their whole thing -- that they don't. $adyen adyen.com/press-and-medi…

@DurableCreators Isn’t the indices business one of the best of all time though? S&P = “the market”

@RyanReeves_ I don't really like the Market Intelligence segment from S&P, so while indices is good, Commodity Insights decent, MI too large + dilutive. MCO doesn't have comparable segment exposed so heavily to AI. WM is largest waste co, but I don't feel they're as well run as RSG/WCN.

Would you be able to hold this portfolio for 10 years and not look at it? What would you change? 1. $AMZN 2. $ASML 3. $LNG 4. $SPGI 5. $TDG 6. $VMC 7. $ISRG 8. $DHR 9. $WM 10. $AWK

@DurableCreators Thanks for your thoughts

@bentleyberrier Valuation for TSLA and already have AMZN/ASML so trying to diversify industries. The thought experiment is equal weight, not necessarily force ranked

@RyanReeves_ My Re-ranking/Edits would be: 1. Google 2. Amazon 3. Waste Management 4. John Deere (Curious why Tesla didn't make the cut and why Google is so far down in your ranks?)

@DurableCreators Thanks! Curious why the switches?

@RyanReeves_ I think it’s solid, but if it were me I’d probably swap a few: ASML -> KLAC SPGI -> MCO WM -> RSG or WCN

@BryanMcWayne I personally agree and would never do this but trying my best to do the Buffett thought experiment if the market closed for x number of years

I would not say it like that. It is more ... the stock market goes up over the long run ... but even the S&P 500 changes 3 to 4% of its stocks a year. And why lock yourself into companies for ten years ... those that bought GE in the late 1990s ... $FICO, $DUOL, $CRM, $MKC, $ZM, $DOCU, $CTAS, $INTU etc, etc, all these potential companies that 'couldn't be lived without' and yet have found a way to not be participating when the market is near all time highs ...

@BryanMcWayne haha i definitely don't know what the future holds. no point to thinking that long-term?

potentially, I would change all of it ... Stage 1 - Spring Stage 2 - Summer Stage 3 - Fall Stage 4 - Winter business and industry goes through cycles ... and regulation ... and massive unknows and disruptions that we could never imagine ... don't fool yourself into thinking you know what the next 10 years holds

Some that didn't quite make the cut: 11. $BN 12. $SHW 13. $DE 14. $CME 15. $JOE 16. $LLY 17. $DIS 18. $GOOGL 19. $JPM 20. $PWR

@WillThrower3 🤌

@RyanReeves_ still plenty of time to $FIX that

Why have I not been long $FIX 🤦‍♂️

@dirtcheapstocks $SEZL is ~7 (66% TTM growth and 9x EV/EBITDA) $1INN is ~6 (60% TTM growth and 10x EV/EBITDA) Intellego at one point was probably ~100 (300% growth and 3x EV/EBITDA). In hindsight, it was certainly too good to be true ☹️

I like Thorndike's Power Ratio: TTM revenue growth rate divided by EV/EBITDA Multiple. PE has averaged 0.75x. Search funds 2-3x. You can get some wildly high numbers in small public companies. What's the highest you've seen?

@BtmUp_Capital A one-time deferred tax benefit gets backed out of the cash flow statement since it isn't a cash transaction so no, it's not included in FCF

What i'm curious about is how the $256.7M one-time income tax benefit recorded in 2025 impacts your FCF figure. I'm not an accountant, but my understanding is that this is recorded as a deferred income tax benefit, which ultimately feeds through as an adjustment on the cash flow statement between net income & net cash provided by operating activities. Since net cash provided by operating activities is used in the non-GAAP FCF calculation, the deferred income tax benefit does impact FCF.

Awful quarter. I made many mistakes. No excuses. Link to the letter: infuse-am.com/post/q1-2026-l…

Thanks! Luis von Ahn talks very openly about this. It is like a game because if people don't show up, then they really can't learn. So yes, it probably should trade more like a mobile game currently but I do think there is real potential to grow into better learning outcomes. Appreciate your perspective!

First I want to say: it happens to the best of us. Mistakes will be made, part of the game. You've got a great record, and one Q doesn't tarnish that. Second, I implore you to consider that $DUOL in the frame not of an education app, but rather a of gaming app. Or, at least, consider that perspective as a balancing force to the bull thesis. Two short posts to follow.

@BtmUp_Capital TTM FCF = $360 mil - $137 mil SBC = $223 mil vs. $3.2 bil EV = 14.3x Are you saying that's not normalized because of subscription working capital benefit?

What figure did you use to get your 18x FCF then? FY'25 operating income was 141.2M (x18 is 2.541B), EBITDA 182.4M (x18 is 3.28B). DUOL has a 3.2B EV currently. Assuming you're using FCF as DUOL has defined (Net cash provided by operating activities less capitalized software development costs and purchases of property and equipment), I would argue this metric does not properly represent the cash that DUOL is generating. Just my .02c.

Definitely a risk but DUOL users typically fall into two groups — people that need to learn the language to get a better paying job. AirPods ain’t gonna cut it there. Or casual learners who almost view it like a game/way to use their brain. People that are traveling around, who want to learn a language but don’t need to, can likely just use AI translation accessories and not use DUOL but that’s not the core market as I see it.

@RyanReeves_ Interesting read — do you not think there’s a long-term risk in Duolingo that language learning is simply less important as AI makes live translation closer and closer to seamless?

@BtmUp_Capital The one-off tax thing didn’t affect FCF. But yeah, you can haircut FCF b/c of SBC

It happens. I read your letter and also your Duolingo thesis from the last quarter just now. Question: You mention that you paid 18x FCF for DUOL. I believe DUOL had a one-off income tax benefit this past year that increased their FCF. Do you think it would have made more sense to use something like operating income to model what the current real and future expected cash generation ability of the business is? Disclosure: I'm not invested in your fund, but always interested in understanding how other approach their investment decisions.

@investing_bear Actually did better than expected on the bottom line though! Expected $700k in EBIT and did almost $800k in net income. So 7.5x fwd P/E for a company that grew sales by 1,000% lol

@RyanReeves_ source: fastcompany.com/4001956/apples…

Wait, so <9x NTM EBIT was a rich deal when earnings were estimated to grow >1,000% 😂 Guess 100x TTM but still...