Durable Value Creators

2.3K posts

Durable Value Creators

@DurableCreators

Searching for high-quality, durable businesses with robust competitive advantages, runways for growth, and a history of creating value for shareholders.

Katılım Ocak 2022

469 Takip Edilen7K Takipçiler

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Durable Value Creators@DurableCreators·9 Mar

Here's the current state of the Durable Value Creators investable universe. Spent some time recently narrowing down the focus. Primary themes include picks & shovels of secular trends, recurring revenue, razor-razorblade model, mission-critical, and/or relatively asset-light.

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Durable Value Creators@DurableCreators·15h

Who’s everyone got winning the tourney this year? Feels even worse than last year in terms of the top seeds being so much better than everyone else… tried to not just have all 1’s in the Final Four but hard to bet against Duke in the end

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Durable Value Creators@DurableCreators·5d

@SmallCapVal YouTube is especially bad too. Certainly feels deliberate, as in less relevant results = more time spent on the app trying to find what you're actually looking for?

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Small Cap Value Opportunities@SmallCapVal·5d

@DurableCreators So many apps don’t give a 💩 about search. Facebook is horrible. Apple Podcasts are terrible. So many others too.

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Durable Value Creators@DurableCreators·5d

How do basic functions on this app like search somehow manage to get worse every month? The power of this app, at least historically, was the ability to find valuable info, recent news, and differing viewpoints on a particular stock. Now you're lucky to even find relevant posts..

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Durable Value Creators@DurableCreators·11 Mar

Don't really understand people trying to argue/prove the $FICO scoring algorithm as being some superior product to VantageScore. The business strength was never about the algorithm, it was always about the integration into the financial ecosystem (which shouldn't be understated).

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Durable Value Creators@DurableCreators·10 Mar

@PeterZynch Serves defensive industries like utilities, staples, healthcare. High margin, high recurring revenue, mostly opex for customers. Minimal leverage now, so might see an uptick in M&A. A more defensive holding, plays a Waste Management type role in portfolio but far more asset light

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Beast Mode Capital@PeterZynch·10 Mar

@DurableCreators Curious about $VLTO, what makes them such a good business?

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Durable Value Creators@DurableCreators·9 Mar

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Durable Value Creators@DurableCreators·9 Mar

Historically I've also been a fan of businesses like $RSG and $MLM, so perhaps sometime down the road I'll include a few physical asset/network names too.

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Durable Value Creators@DurableCreators·7 Mar

@At50w50882 I guess in part it comes down to future expectations too. A WM or CAT is never going to have the same level of upside potential. If the capex converts to new growth, there's a lot of upside for the hyperscalers. Short/medium-term spending for long-term benefits.

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50W-AT@At50w50882·7 Mar

@DurableCreators No comment about the top half of the list. But $GOOG $MSFT and $META are all in period of considerable ROIC compression due to huge capex spend. So fair to say multiples should come down. Structurally, these went from being very high ROIC to just above average ROIC.

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Durable Value Creators@DurableCreators·7 Mar

Forward P/E ratios: $WMT 42x $ODFL 42x $ECL 34x $CAT 32x $WM 30x $GOOG 26x $MSFT 24x $NVDA 22x $META 22x Market feels a bit backwards right now. 4-6% top line growth trading at a considerable premium to double digit growth at higher margins...

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Durable Value Creators@DurableCreators·7 Mar

@psyduckcapital Obviously a bit less favorable for the hyperscalers (NVDA is fine) but I don't think capex is necessarily a bad thing if it's leading to growth. Businesses like CAT or WM spend a lot on capex too but with much less optionality.

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Psyduck Capital Management@psyduckcapital·7 Mar

@DurableCreators How does this look on FCF / FCFE?

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Durable Value Creators@DurableCreators·7 Mar

@stonkmetal Surely the mediocre performance means that business fundamentals caught up to the stock over this time and the valuation is a lot more reasonable now... right?

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Heavy Moat Investments@stonkmetal·7 Mar

Would've done alright. 2 slight winners, 2 doing alright and 1 loser. SPY would've been a better bet then.

Devang B@Dbdb8966

@stonkmetal How would the returns have been had you built a 20% stake in each of these? I predict very strong

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Durable Value Creators@DurableCreators·3 Mar

Wasn’t a big advantage for Anthropic over OpenAI that they were smaller with a much higher % of paid users? I’m not sure a massive spike in free users and usage is a win. Sure, some might become paying subscribers but the increase in operating losses outpaces that gain (imo).

Aakash Gupta@aakashgupta

Claude went from #131 on the App Store in late January to #1 this weekend. Passed ChatGPT. Free users up 60% since January. Paid subs doubled this year. Daily signups breaking all-time records every day this week. And Anthropic’s response to all that attention? Ship memory on the free plan. Make the free tier stickier at the exact moment millions of new users are flooding in. The math tells you everything about how they view this moment. The Pentagon contract was worth up to $200M. Anthropic pulls in $14B annually. That’s 1.4% of revenue. They traded 1.4% of revenue for the #1 app in America and a brand loyalty moment that no ad budget on earth could manufacture. The consumer market opened wide for them at the precise moment the DOW’s “supply chain risk” designation was supposed to shut them down. Katy Perry posting her Claude Pro subscription. Reddit organizing ChatGPT cancellations. 700+ employees at Google and OpenAI signing an open letter backing Anthropic’s position. Every product leader should study this sequence. The designation was supposed to be punishment. Anthropic converted it into the largest consumer acquisition event in AI history, then immediately shipped product to retain every new user walking through the door. This team is operating at the highest of levels right now.

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Durable Value Creators@DurableCreators·24 Şub

The tough thing about software names is that beyond the narrative, almost all of these companies are spending 20%-30% of sales on R&D with 50%+ of OCF coming from SBC. Even the ones like $CRWD or $NET (or $NOW?) that might be alright long-term still aren't cheap... yet.

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Durable Value Creators@DurableCreators·22 Şub

AI will make fake, fraudulent and inaccurate data more common and harder to identify, both of which can increase risk in certain industries. Trust will be key in an AI-centric world. For instance, you don't need the "best" rating or scoring algorithm, just the most trusted one.

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Durable Value Creators@DurableCreators·22 Şub

As AI grows, I keep thinking about the importance of legitimate, accurate data/information and processes surrounding legal, regulatory, and mission-critical decisions. AI might commoditize public data and the user experience but those critical processes should grow in importance.

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Durable Value Creators@DurableCreators·21 Şub

The funny thing about $CRWD is they brought down ~8.5 million computers worldwide back in 2024 and nothing ended up happening to the company. I don’t think Anthropic releasing a tool in an adjacent field is going to change much anytime soon. Code security =/= endpoint security.

Jared Sleeper@JaredSleeper

Amazing that Anthropic can release a tool for code security and immediately nuke an entire software subsector. Exciting times.

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Durable Value Creators@DurableCreators·20 Şub

@ContrarianCurse Seems like it'd be in the realm of Blackduck (Synopsys), Snyk, Checkmarx type businesses, no? Not that that changes the market's eagerness to overreact...

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