Sam Freedman

New post: Can Trump steal the midterms? He certainly wants to but it's no so easy. I look at all the things he could try and the challenges with each. And why his attempts may hurt the Republicans rather than boost their chances. (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/the…

New post: Can Trump steal the midterms? He certainly wants to but it's no so easy. I look at all the things he could try and the challenges with each. And why his attempts may hurt the Republicans rather than boost their chances. (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/the…

Earlier in the week I looked at the Democrats' chances of taking Congress in November. Which is why Trump is getting increasingly desperate about the midterms. x.com/i/status/20338…

New post just out "The lifeline election (part one)" With Trump increasingly out-of-control the US midterms have never been more important. I look at whether the Democrats can win Congress - focusing on the nine key Senate races. (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/the…

@dominicghudson I'm in line with bettings odds and prediction markets. In fact I'm slightly more pessimistic. Doesn't mean I'm right but I don't think it's wishful thinking...

@Samfr Even before part 2, my slight anxiety about part 1 is the risk of wishful thinking (if I may be so bold) skewing your take on the odds. I suppose sooner or later the US will return to a more sensible place but for now I wouldn’t be too surprised if the Republicans take 8 of the 9

In the second post coming later this week I'll look at the inevitable follow-up question. What can Trump do to stop fair elections as he gets increasingly desperate?

“His basic problem, whatever his bones tell him, is that even if Trump wanted to declare the war over today and order a ceasefire then there is no guarantee that Iran would follow.” A brilliant essay from @LawDavF on the war in Iran. samf.substack.com/p/the-split-sc…

New post from @LawDavF "The Split-Screen War" How did America get into such a mess in Iran? What are Trump's options? What will Iran try to do with the leverage it's acquired? Can the regime sustain it? (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/the-split-sc…

The West’s leading thinker on strategy, @LawDavF, on the Iran War and why it’s going the way it is.

Latest post assesses current state of the war. Looks at the state of American decision-making, how it was caught out by Iranian response, the difficulty reopening Strait of Hormuz, and why hardliners in Iran may make it difficult to get a ceasefire. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/the-split-sc…

Obviously we all knew (on here anyway) this war was a bad idea but the level of fuck-up is off the scale. The incompetence is like nothing I've seen before.

New post just out: "Fighting back" Labour is a deep hole, with the Greens now ahead in some polls. What political strategy do they need to get out of this cycle of decline? (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/fig…

@JamesK80P 100%

@Samfr Although in Albanese's case he was aided by arguably the most incompetent opposition leader in Australian history

@Rod__Mason It hasn't been in the last two years, even though everyone thinks it has. But it now probably will thanks to the war in Iran.

@Samfr A big problem with Labour focusing relentlessly on the cost of living is that the cost of living is going up sharply.

@JamesK80P Being attacked by Trump helps...

@Samfr I know it's a little bit out of the box but it might be worth looking at ALP in Australia and the Liberal Party of Canada to see how a party hugely behind in the polls managed to still win the subsequent election

@W12Newman I don't suggest tearing it all up!

@Samfr Only last week deep hole as losing to reform. This need for instant crisis and instant solutions. Years to next election so much will and may happen. Pivoting/tearing it all up in response to greens, reform etc now pointless. Big Q is how does our archaic electoral system cope?