Hussain Nadim@HNadim87
Here are my thoughts based on historical facts and evidence around Pakistan's latest attempts to be the mediator between US and Iran, how it impacts Pakistan, and what can we predict based on data.
1. Nothing sells better than Geopolitics
It works like opioid on the masses, delivers escape from governance and accountability to the ruling elite, and provides the surest ladder for a military dictator to take over.
But there are still those, even the smart ones, that fall for these big foreign policy wins, chest-thumping centrality, and strategic relevance, every single time they are fed these lies.
Luckily, some of us have done enough academic work on the subject to identify the patterns and predict how this latest geopolitical con will end, so that people are not duped into it, again!
2. This isn't the first time
Pakistan's geopolitics obsessed ruling elite has played a pivotal role in geopolitics for last 7 decades at an enormous price to the country and its people.
Gen Yahya Khan brokered an icebreaker between the US and China that shifted the power balance in favour of the US during the Cold War. Kissinger literally came to Pakistan, pretended to be ill, and ended up in China. It was Pakistan's biggest geopolitical moment.
But here is a problem that these geopolitical hacks don't mention. While Gen Yahya was brokering peace between US and China in the summer of 1971, he used that as a leverage to unleash tyranny in East Pakistan, and by Dec 1971, neither Nixon/Kissinger nor Zhou Enlai could prevent the collapse of Pakistan and the creation of Bangladesh. It was the obsession with geopolitics and arrogance that came with the sense of US support, that turned the top military and political leadership blind. We are witnessing the exact same blindness again today in 2026.
A few years later, the script reset with General Zia who literally was pivotal in bringing down the Berlin Wall, and US winning the Cold War. Pakistan fought as a front line state against the Soviet Union, running one of the greatest proxy wars in history. But it came at a price of Pakistan losing its population to militancy, extremism, and sectarianism that destroyed every fibre of Pakistani society, from inside out. It did make some military and civilian leaders very rich, generational rich. For the rest of the country and people, every geopolitics win added to the misery.
A little over decade later it was time for Gen Musharraf who positioned Pakistan as the front line state fighting the War on Terror, becoming the most critical partner of the US. President Bush was the biggest of Gen Musharraf and saw in him as a "true friend".
The price? Pakistan droned its own people, destroyed the tribal areas including KP, and permanently lost Baluchistan.
Even very recently, Pakistan played a critical role through Doha Accord to help US exit Afghanistan and end the war. We all are seeing live, exactly what price we have paid since then.
Is it going to be any different with another round of geopolitics? Highly unlikely!
3. Short-term personal survival over long term national stability.
Here are some facts. Pakistan's geopolitics is heavily geared to achieve domestic political goals for the ruling elite. The reason because, what we have in Pakistan is an illegitimate regime run by a military dictator, who has imprisoned the most popular public leader for the last 2 years. The lack of legitimacy and credibility requires the military dictator to find external source of strength and support, from the US.
Therefore, since President Trump won the elections, Pakistan has danced to every single tune of the White House. Trump said we want critical minerals, Pakistan announced it has the largest critical minerals reserve in the world and hosted an expo. Trump said he was interested in Crypto, Pakistan presented itself as the crypto capital of the world despite the fact that Crypto remains banned in Pakistan. Trump mentioned Gaza, and Pakistan jumped to become part of the Board of Peace. So now, as Trump is struggling in Iran, the regime in Pakistan is presenting itself as the mediator to solve all problems.
The fundamental problem here is, in hopes to appease President Trump and survive in power, Pakistan's military regime has given up on sovereignty and national interest. Instead it has prioritized and peg itself to the American interest. It is comfortably happy with a pat on back from the President Trump, as long as it survives in power, but the country is up in flames with terrorism, economic crash, inflation, political breakdown and judicial collapse.
What regime trolls, and geopolitics experts don't get is that geopolitics only serve the ruling elite, a military dictator, not the country or its national interest, and certainly not the people. Their big wins in the geopolitics, are big losses for the people and their freedoms and livelihood back home.
4. So what we can predict?
If a hostile intelligence was to undo Pakistan, this is exactly what it would be doing right now. What is bizarre is that, Pakistan has already gone through exactly like just over 50 years ago, and faced a collapse. Yet, another military dictator is going through the exact same script all over again, expecting a different outcome. It's literally the definition of madness.
Every piece of data, evidence and signal is suggesting, that unless major course correction, Pakistan is facing another collapse, and the regime will walk right into it chest-thumping and cheering over it as a big win.
