The Polite Investor

Election Effect? 2017; 1 year after election: $SPY up 40% 2018; 2 years after election: $SPY Down 11% 2021; 1 year after election: $SPY up 50% 2022; 2 years after election: $SPY Down 30% 2025; 1 year after election: $SPY up 23% 2026; ? There are 2 differences in 2025 though! 1. $SPY only went up 23% so far compared to 40% and 50% in 2017 and 2021. 2. We already had a 20% drop in $SPY in April 2025. Of course, there are multiple reasons for all these moves in the past two elections, such as inflation, Covid19, interest rates, and many other factors, but if this time something similar happens, how low will SPY go in 2026? Maybe not that low since we already had a drop in April 2025 and the gain has only been around 23% so far. Anyways, it seems like 2026 dop in stocks seems unavoidable and the only question is how low and how long it will be.

@kevinxu @StockOptionCole Me too. Looking for proofs and there is nothing

@StockOptionCole yet not a single trade receipt or proof of gains after scrolling the media tab for 5 minutes

I am living proof that you can triple your net worth in just 3 months I have also helped hundreds of others triple their net worth as well All you have to do is listen. Follow & turn on notifications.

Is this a heads and shoulders forming on $MSFT ? 🤔

@WillWellisch @saylor Usually that happens towards the end of a tax year, not in June

@ThePoliteG @saylor Some people sell at low prices so they can show a loss on tax statements. Then they just let the price drop a little more and buy right back in. It can be a tax strategy, not just weak hands or leverage traders getting liquidated.

Four ideologies shape the Bitcoin community. Maximalists bring conviction. Capitalists bring integration. Technologists bring innovation. Fundamentalists bring preservation. Bitcoin reaches its full potential when these four forces work in harmony.

@monster_models @saylor Yeah, the crypto bros would freak out if true

@ThePoliteG @saylor I wouldn't mind if he did, especially if they were planning to sell some BTC soon anyway. Minus 52% from ATH would be some epic tax loss harvesting. 🔥

@Mikey_Diesel @saylor Yes, he did. Hope he didn’t sell anymore at least

@ThePoliteG @saylor He sold 32 of them to be exact

@earningsscores Yep, the guidance was indeed weak!

The valuation compression is the real story. 94x → 69x earnings is still a big number, but the AI revenue growth rate actually justifies a premium — the problem is the market was pricing in *continued acceleration*, not just "strong." The guidance gap (Q3 AI guide at $16B vs $17.2B expected) is what cracked it. One miss on the rate of change and you get a 13% drawdown on an otherwise monster quarter.

$AVGO is officially in a bear market territory by definition! From highs of $507 to the lows of $385 P/E ratio is currently sitting at about 69 times earnings! Much better than being 94 times earnings!

@Corgi_boii @saylor 😕

@ThePoliteG @saylor You know he probably did 😆

@Kaplovforyou @WatcherGuru $NASDAQ is almost 60% technology related companies! So, if technology is booming, NASDAQ is booming

@ThePoliteG @WatcherGuru man do you know how can someone find out which stocks are pulling NASDAQ (NQ) down each day. how do you research it?

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 $1.75 trillion wiped out from the US stock market today. $130,000,000,000 wiped out from the crypto market cap.

@skyhighgang0 @WatcherGuru If the cycle is alive, probably

@ThePoliteG @WatcherGuru This is crypto winter. I think we're due this year or next for the next big crypto boom.

BREAKING: Bitcoin crashes under $60,000

@bodhicitta777 @saylor You said brilliant? 😳

@ThePoliteG @saylor Why? It would have been brilliant to tax loss harvest here.

@Cryptonic_1st @unusual_whales What you mean?

@ThePoliteG @unusual_whales Lets hope its right, cause we gonna merry

Call your mother.

@WatcherGuru And that’s why I’m suspicious about crypto

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Former President Joe Biden's son, Hunter Biden, says "fiat is a sham, the banking class is corrupt." "Decentralized digital currency and the blockchain are the inevitable future."

@unusual_whales What’s happening

New York City recorded the lowest number of murders, shooting incidents, and shooting victims in its recorded history for the first five months of 2026.

$1.75 trillion dollars wiped out from the US stock market today! That’s the market valuation of $SPCX 😳

@WatcherGuru The market today

@WatcherGuru An entire $SPCX market cap gone today!