Bama Fan
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Coach Tuberville gonna occupy the Strip in Tuscaloosa with the Alabama National Guard when he is governor...
Ryan Phillips@JournoRyan
Tuscaloosa City Council President Kip Tyner regarding The Strip:
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Bama Fan รีทวีตแล้ว
Bama Fan รีทวีตแล้ว
Bama Fan รีทวีตแล้ว

@bamaperspective You are correct. I dont bet anymore but I get the philosophy.
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Definitely need to start 5-0. But when you're being predictive, like from a betting standpoint, for best accuracy, you don't say, "hmm, win, win, win, loss, win..."
You say, OK, favored by X points, favored by Y points ..." and that translates into X% probability of a win. 85% probability of a win = 0.85 wins. And then you add them together.
For example, SP+ has us as a 6.1-point favorite on a neutral over South Carolina. But it's a home game, which usually adds 3.5 or 4 points to the line for us. So let's say it's 9.5 or 10 points.
Well, 10-point dogs win outright about 22.5% of the time in college football. DeBoer has lost four times as a double-digit favorite in two seasons.
In reality, you'll win (1 win) or lose (0 wins). But probabilistically, the South Carolina game should be roughly 0.78 wins, not 1.0 wins. Maybe 22 times out of 100 you lose it.
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Bama fans freaked out about this. But honestly, it's within the realm of possibility.
To be clear, 9-3 or 8-4 are much likelier results. The current win total in the betting market is 8.5 slightly juiced to the over.
7-5 would have been certifiably insane (if genuine) three years ago. It's still a lower-than-market-consensus projection. For sure. But it's not certifiable like people are acting.
A lot is on the table with some big question marks this season.
I'd probably put the likelihood of record in order:
9-3
8-4
10-2
7-5
11-1
7-5 is close to the edge of feasible but not exactly past it.
Would involve a much worse record in one-possession games + other SEC programs living up to/exceeding expectations + either more injuries or the OL/QB/RB question marks, and the run defense, not getting answered well.
Connor Turner@ConnManATL
My WAY too early predictions for the 2026 Alabama Crimson Tide! What do you guys think?
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@bamaperspective Could we go 8-4..yep. but that means we repeat the same mistakes of the last 2 years because we should start 5-0. Tennessee has more questions. LsU can go in 2 directions. We have TAM at home.
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@TideMaster2024 Again, the season win total betting market is 8.5.
Pair that with huge question marks at QB, OL, RB and run defense and a very tough schedule.
The consensus sharp market does not agree.
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@iam_sijo99 The Bear is a good not great show. All the others listed were really good.
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Best TV Shows By Year Since 1995.
1995 - Friends
1996 - The X-Files
1997 - Buffy the Vampire Slayer
1998 - The Sopranos
1999 - The West Wing
2000 - The Sopranos
2001 - The Wire
2002 - The Wire
2003 - The Wire
2004 - Lost
2005 - The Office
2006 - The Wire
2007 - The Sopranos
2008 - Breaking Bad
2009 - Mad Men
2010 - Breaking Bad
2011 - Game of Thrones
2012 - Breaking Bad
2013 - Breaking Bad
2014 - True Detective
2015 - Game of Thrones
2016 - Stranger Things
2017 - Game of Thrones
2018 - Succession
2019 - Fleabag
2020 - The Queen’s Gambit
2021 - Succession
2022 - Better Call Saul
2023 - The Last of Us
2024 - Shōgun
2025 - The Bear


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